Superplanet would take 4.9% of the holdings and $2.5 million in cash
Bitcoin was trading close to $78,000 last week. This price puts Metaplanet’s coins underwater against their $96,191 cost.
That gap does make a sale a costly proposition, because selling now means taking the loss.”
CEO Simon Gerovich has pushed back on the sale chatter directly, calling the transfers custodial and not showing “any intention to liquidate.”
Gerovich explained that the company had actually moved 5,014 BTC when trackers flagged a 3,881 BTC transfer around August 13.
“This was a routine custody operation. No bitcoin was sold, and our holdings remain 43,000 BTC,” Gerovich wrote on X, per Cryptopolitan.
A similar 4,986 BTC reshuffle in March also ended without a sale.
Metaplanet has offered to give Superplanet 2,100 BTC plus $2.5 million in cash, or about 4.9% of its present holdings.
Superplanet is a Nasdaq-listed US bitcoin treasury platform that Metaplanet is building with Super League Enterprises.
Nasdaq filings, regulatory approval in the US and Japan, and a Super League shareholder vote anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026 are all prerequisites for that plan.
Metaplanet is the world’s third-largest listed corporate holder of bitcoin, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. It’s behind Strategy’s 840,447 coins and just under Twenty One Capital’s 43,514.
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Michael Saylor says MicroStrategy is back. The two-word post landed after 10 weeks in which the company, now named Strategy, bought no Bitcoin (BTC) at all.
Three things in its finances have quietly shifted. Together they explain why traders read the post as a signal, not a slogan.
Strategy’s Debt No Longer Blocks Bitcoin Buys
Strategy holds roughly $6.69 billion in dollars. It owes about $6.71 billion on convertible notes. The company says that leaves net leverage at 0.1%.
The gap ran the other way all summer, making traders price it in forced selling. It vanished last week, and MSTR stock rallied 12% as the two numbers met.
The freeze was real, considering MicroStrategy last bought BTC on June 22, adding 520 BTC at $67,068. It has sold four times since. August brought $3.28 billion in fresh capital, and all of it went into dollars, not Bitcoin.
The build was deliberate as most of the cash sits in a reserve for dividend payments. That reserve held $3.75 billion in July. It holds $5.10 billion now.
“Our objective is for STRC to trade over time at $99 to $100. If STRC trades below $100, we intend to repurchase STRC shares in a regular and disciplined manner,” CEO Phong Le said so in the second-quarter results.
Every dollar spent buying STRC back is a dollar not spent on Bitcoin. Strategy sold coins in August to fund that defense. Near $97, the drain almost stops.
The stakes have grown. STRC raised $2.47 billion in July 2025 at $90 a share, paying 9%. Today roughly $10 billion of it trades, at 12%.
Those dividends are not small. Strategy paid $400.7 million on its preferred shares in the second quarter alone.
Saylor Is Signaling, Not Filing
Saylor paired his post with a chart of 840,447 coins worth $65.72 billion. Hours earlier he wrote “Business as usual.”
Michael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Buys. Source: Saylor on X
Neither post is a filing, but purchases show up in weekly reports and the next one is expected on Monday, August 31.
MicroStrategy may have bought Bitcoin last week, but it is also possible that they did not. After all, he also declared Bitcoin had won in July, and the buying stayed frozen for another five weeks.
With Bitcoin traded near $79,183 as of this writing, up 1.3% in a day, MicroStrategy’s treasury is barely above water, given they paid an average of $75,388 a coin.
Just a few months after it launched its first notable cryptocurrency-focused platform, the Wall Street behemoth has expanded its offering beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The giant recently announced that its Schwab Crypto trading service will add Solana (SOL), Chainlink (LINK), and Avalanche (AVAX) in the coming months.
Adding More Alts
The new additions will allow eligible company clients direct access to five cryptocurrencies after the product launched with only Bitcoin and Ethereum in May this year. What’s even more notable now is that Charles Schwab said these won’t necessarily be the last added altcoins, as it plans to introduce more digital assets over time.
“With this expansion, clients will have more choices to build a digital asset allocation alongside the investing and banking experience they know and trust at Schwab. These additions are consistent with our approach to provide clients with access to familiar cryptocurrencies backed by an ecosystem of education, tools, resources, and support to make informed decisions about how crypto might fit into their broader investing goals,” said the entity’s Head of Digital Assets, Joe Vietri.
Charles Schwab clients can view and trade their crypto holdings alongside traditional investments on its website, mobile application, and thinkorswim platform. The company explained that crypto trades carry a fee of 75 basis points on the dollar value of each transaction.
It’s worth noting that certain geographical limitations are still in place. Schwab Crypto remains unavailable to residents of New York and Louisiana, as well as customers in US territories and international jurisdictions.
The statement also clarified that support for any of the announced digital assets could still be delayed, changed, or withdrawn depending on regulatory, market, operational, or risk-related developments.
Market Revival
The BTC- and ETH-only launch of the company’s crypto platform came just ahead of the May rally, which drove the leading digital asset to almost $83,000. What followed were three months of selling pressure and new lows, with BTC dipping below $58,000 on July 1.
However, the new altcoin additions find the market in a much better state. BTC broke out of its consolidation range and rocketed to $81,000 on a couple of occasions. Most altcoins have followed suit, including the ones mentioned above. SOL is up by over 40% in the past month, LINK has gained 38%, while AVAX has added a more modest 15%.
Our Bitcoin price prediction expects BTC’s price to reach $150K by the end of 2026 due to the bullish sentiment following the halving event.
By 2032, BTC might touch $350,548 following increased institutional adoption.
Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026 has become highly debated. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the rally after the halving were expected to bring more clarity, but instead they’ve brought mixed volatility in Bitcoin price forecast.
However, top analysts are bullish on BTC price prediction this year. Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach about $250,000 by 2026. He bases this view on Bitcoin’s limited supply and the possibility that institutions and major companies will continue to adopt it. Investor and author Robert Kiyosaki has made a similar prediction, arguing that Bitcoin’s scarcity makes it a strong store of value in a world where traditional currencies are becoming less stable.
As Bitcoin’s on-chain activities surge, questions arise, such as: “Does Bitcoin have the potential to hold above the $100K mark?” or “Will Bitcoin go up?” or “Where will Bitcoin be in 5 years?” Let’s answer them using our Bitcoin price prediction 2026 model.
Overview
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin
Ticker
BTC
Price
$78,019 (+0.6%)
Market capitalization
$1.42 Trillion
Trading volume (24-hour)
$52.53 Billion (+7%)
Circulating supply
20 Million BTC
All-time high
$124,457; August 14, 2025
All-time low
$0.04865; Jul 15, 2010
24-hour high
$78,777
24-hour low
$77,725
Bitcoin price prediction: Technical analysis
Metric
Value
Current Price
$78,019
Price Prediction
$80,258 (+1.5%)
Fear & Greed Index
28 (Fear)
Sentiment
Bearish
Volatility
1.47% (Low)
Green Days
15/30 (50%)
50-Day SMA
$ 63,405
200-Day SMA
$ 71,167
14-Day RSI
47.42 (Neutral)
Bitcoin price analysis
TL;DR Breakdown:
BTC price analysis shows that buyers are pushing the price toward $78K
Resistance for BTC is at $79,810
Support for BTC/USD is at $77,108
The BTC price analysis for 29 August confirms that BTC faces buying pressure as BTC surges toward $78K. Currently, the Bitcoin price is aiming to hold above $80K.
Analyzing the daily Bitcoin price chart, we see that Bitcoin faces buying pressure as it surges toward $80K. Currently, the BTC price is facing short-liquidation around immediate resistance channels. The 24-hour volume has surged to $684 million, showing a surge in trading interest today. BTC is trading at $78,019, surging by over 0.6% in the last 24 hours.
The RSI-14 trend line hovers around 71, hinting that a strong bullish pressure is on the way. The SMA-14 level suggests volatility in the next few hours.
BTC/USD 4-hour price chart: Selling domination rises around EMA trend lines
The 4-hour Bitcoin price chart suggests that sellers are strengthening their position to hold the price below the EMA trend lines. Currently, sellers are strongly defending a recovery.
The BoP indicator trades in a positive region at 0.62, showing that short-term buyers are taking a chance to accelerate an upward trend.
However, the MACD indicator has formed red candles below the signal line and the indicator aims for negative momentum, strengthening short-position holders’ confidence.
Bitcoin technical indicators: Levels and action
Daily simple moving average (SMA)
Period
Value
Action
SMA 3
$ 63,068
SELL
SMA 5
$ 63,596
SELL
SMA 10
$ 63,957
SELL
SMA 21
$ 64,374
SELL
SMA 50
$ 63,405
SELL
SMA 100
$ 68,803
SELL
SMA 200
$ 71,167
SELL
Daily exponential moving average (EMA)
Period
Value
Action
EMA 3
$ 63,373
SELL
EMA 5
$ 63,531
SELL
EMA 10
$ 63,866
SELL
EMA 21
$ 64,009
SELL
EMA 50
$ 64,729
SELL
EMA 100
$ 67,269
SELL
EMA 200
$ 73,515
SELL
What to expect from BTC price analysis next?
The hourly price chart confirms that Bitcoin is attempting to drop below the immediate support line; however, bulls are eyeing a recovery rally in the coming hours. If BTC’s price holds momentum above $79,810, it will fuel a bullish rally to $81,329.
If bulls fail to initiate a surge, the BTC price may drop below the immediate support line at $77,108, beginning a bearish trend to $75,336.
Is Bitcoin a good investment?
The rising institutional demand for Bitcoin etfs makes it a good investment option in the crypto market. However, Bitcoin has a short investment history filled with very volatile market value. Whether it is a good investment depends on your financial profile, investment portfolio, risk tolerance, and investment goals. It is suggested to conduct investment advice of the financial markets and understand the financial system risks.
Why is Bitcoin up today?
Bitcoin faced a surge in buying pressure as buyers pushed the price above immediate fib levels around $78K.
Will the BTC price reach $100K?
Bitcoin price broke its much-anticipated mark of $100K, aiming for a new ATH. The price currently prepares to maintain its buying demand above $100K.
Will BTC reach $1 million?
$1 million is a significant milestone for the BTC price. However, it is achievable if Bitcoin continues to attract institutional interest in the coming years.
Is Bitcoin a good long-term investment?
As several institutions continue to accumulate BTC and Bitcoin faces a rise in global recognition, Bitcoin has a solid long-term future.
Recent news/opinions on BTC
As reported by Cryptopolitan, a Glassnode report highlights Q3 as a possible bottom for Bitcoin, noting early accumulation, while Mudrex Learn suggests October 2026 to December 2026 as the most probable period, with a low of $50,000 to $55,000, according to Anupam Dodecha’s analysis.
Bitcoin price prediction August 2026
Bitcoin’s price dropped toward $60K in July. However, it is now facing minor accumulation, which could mean we’ll see a recovery around August 2026.
Bitcoin’s price might attempt to maintain an average price of $75,000 and be pushed further, at least $80,000 if strong downward pressures are not seen. However, we might see a rejection on the bearish side, leading to a consolidation at around $60,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Potential Low
Potential Average
Potential High
Bitcoin Price Prediction August 2026
$60,000
$75,000
$80,000
Bitcoin price prediction 2026
Historically, Bitcoin has been a significant crypto coin in the years following a halving, and it is expected to push up its price after a downturn in 2025. Bitcoin miners might play a crucial role in holding bullish sentiment for future price movements.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are projected to be a key driver of Bitcoin prices and the broader cryptocurrency market in 2026. As a result, Bitcoin’s trajectory might follow a bullish trend ahead with rising treasury term premium.
Furthermore, there is an increasing bullish sentiment that the base interest rates could be cut in the US, and thus, help to further the upward movement of Bitcoin. An outcome of which the 2026 year could be positive for Bitcoin, with its crypto-price perhaps touching $150,000 at the highest and the low could be around $48,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Potential Low
Potential Average
Potential High
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026
$48,000
$100,000
$150,000
Bitcoin Price Predictions 2027-2032
Year
Minimum Price
Average Price
Maximum Price
2027
$115,000
$130,000
$185,000
2028
$140,491
$170,100
$216,738
2029
$164,063
$185,068
$244,142
2030
$195,629
$200,312
$255,321
2031
$225,903
$248,568
$270,593
2032
$285,058
$303,555
$350,548
Bitcoin price prediction 2027
Bitcoin might witness slow growth after 2025’s Bitcoin halving surge, resulting in a surge in selling pressure. However, more financial products including a surge in ETF flows might hold BTC prices within a bullish region. The digital assets market sentiment shows bullish signals for Bitcoin hit new highs. As the overall sentiment gives a bullish outlook, one should research more about Bitcoin before investing.
We might see a maximum price of $185,000, with a minimum price of $115,000 and average price of $130,000.
Bitcoin forecast 2028
Based on a detailed technical analysis of past Bitcoin price movements, it is projected that in 2028, Bitcoin could see a minimum price of $140,491. The potential maximum price is estimated to be $216,738, with an average closing price of $170,100.
Bitcoin price prediction 2029
By 2029, Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach a low of $164,063. Maximum price projections are as high as $244,142, averaging about $185,068 for the year.
Bitcoin price forecast 2030
Projections for 2030 suggest that Bitcoin could be valued at a minimum of $195,629. The price may peak at as much as $255,321, with an average throughout the year expected to be around $200,312.
Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction 2031
The forecast for 2031 suggests that Bitcoin’s price could start at a minimum of $225,903 and potentially rise to a maximum of $270,593. The average price is anticipated to stabilize at about $248,568 throughout the year.
Bitcoin price prediction 2032
The forecast for 2032 suggests that Bitcoin’s price could start at a minimum of $285,058 and potentially rise to a maximum of $350,548. The average price is anticipated to stabilize at about $303,555 throughout the year.
A surge in bitcoin adoption and the expansion of the Bitcoin ecosystem might end the controversy of “Bitcoin bubble” in future. This might boost the Bitcoin cost and strengthen the Bitcoin network. At Cryptopolitan, we are bullish on Bitcoin’s future price as the historical market sentiment is extremely impressive. By the end of 2026, Bitcoin might record a maximum of $150,000, with a minimum price of $48,000 and an average price of $100,000.
However, Bitcoin’s future market potential entirely depends on its buying demand, regulation, and investor sentiment regarding long-term holdings. Crypto analysts provide a positive sentiment as macroeconomic trends turn promising.
We expect Bitcoin price to surpass a high of $216,738 by the end of 2028.
Bitcoin historic price sentiment
BTC price history: Coinmarketcap
Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin in 2009, marking the first use of blockchain technology.
Bitcoin was initially of little value, gaining significant traction and hitting over $15,000 during the 2017 boom, with further highs reached in 2019 and 2021.
In 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $68,789.63 but dropped to $15,760 by December 2022 amid economic pressures, including inflation and geopolitical conflicts.
By April 10, 2023, Bitcoin’s price surged 83%, breaking the $30,000 resistance level.
Throughout mid-2023, Bitcoin’s value hovered around $30,000, nearly reaching $32,000 due to positive market sentiments and potential ETF approvals.
Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop in mid-August 2023, falling to $25,000. However, its prices remained volatile, fluctuating between $26,000 and $29,500 in October.
Bitcoin closed 2023 above $42,000, a 155% increase from the year’s start.
In early 2024, Bitcoin rose above $45,000 on ETF anticipation but briefly dipped below $40,000 after approvals. It broke its 2021 all-time high in March, reaching $73,750.07 on March 14, before dropping below $60,000 in April. May saw another surge above $70,000, while June and July brought heavy fluctuations between $70K and $55K.
Bitcoin rallied to $66K in September after a Fed rate cut, climbed to $70K in October’s Uptober rally, and surged toward $108K following Donald Trump’s victory in the November US elections. BTC ended 2024 consolidating below $95K.
At the start of January 2025, BTC was trading between $92,788.13 and $95,824.39. However, it formed an ATH at $109,114 on January 20.
In the weeks of February, the price of BTC dropped heavily as it dropped toward the $78K low.
In March, the price of Bitcoin declined heavily and dropped toward a low of $76.6K. In April, the price of Bitcoin started recovering. By the end of April, it neared the critical $95K zone.
In May, Bitcoin price skyrocketed and it formed a new ATH at $111,970. However, the price declined later, toward $104K.
By the end of June, BTC price reclaimed the $108K level.
In July, BTC price triggered a surge toward $123K; however, it faced strong selling pressure later.
In mid-August, the price of Bitcoin surged above $124K. However, the price failed to maintain its momentum as it dropped below $110K in early-September.
By the end of September, the price of Bitcoin dropped further and touched a low around $108K.
In October, the price of Bitcoin crashed heavily below $110K. The price crashed further toward $84K in November.
Bitcoin ended December 2025 on a bearish note by trading below $90K.
Bitcoin price further dropped in January 2026 as it crashed toward $77K. In February, the price of BTC hit a low at $60K.
BTC price continued to face bearish pressure in March. However, it surged above $70K in early April. By the end of April, BTC price surged toward $80K.
By the end of May, the price of BTC dropped toward $73K. In June, BTC dropped toward $60K.
In July, the price of BTC continued to hover around $60K.
Bitcoin fell below $77,000 Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh revived the threat of higher interest rates at Jackson Hole.
Data from CryptoSlate shows the largest cryptocurrency dropped to as low as $76,909 before recovering to $77,712 as of press time, down about 4% over the previous 24 hours. The retreat accelerated a broader crypto deleveraging that erased nearly $488 million from derivatives traders.
The selloff followed a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. Traders lifted the probability of a September rate increase to about 60% from roughly 35% before Warsh spoke, while short-term Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened.
Warsh says financial conditions may still be too loose
Warsh gave markets several reasons to reconsider expectations that the Fed was moving toward easier policy, arguing that inflation remains too high even after better price readings this summer.
The Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index is running at 3.7% over the past year and at a 4.1% annualized pace over the past six months, both well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Recent inflation reports had not persuaded Warsh that the underlying trend had changed. He said:
“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”
He also challenged the idea that current borrowing conditions were already restraining demand enough. Credit markets show few signs of policy restraint, while corporate bond spreads remain historically narrow and bank lending standards relatively easy.
He added:
“I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
That combination landed as a hawkish signal for markets. Warsh described labor conditions as consistent with full employment, pointed to healthy consumer spending and strong business investment, and said the Fed’s “predominant focus right now should be on prices.”
For crypto traders, the implication was immediate. A resilient economy gives the Fed more room to keep policy tight, while persistent inflation raises the possibility that its next move could be another increase rather than the easier financial conditions risk assets had been anticipating.
The two-year Treasury yield climbed to a one-month high after the remarks as investors increased bets on another rate increase.
CoinGlass recorded $487.68 million of liquidations across the market during the previous 24 hours, affecting 97,691 traders. Of this, more than $200 million in positions were closed within 1 hour after the speech.
Bitcoin and Ethereum led crypto liquidations as 24-hour losses reached $487.81 million across 97,772 traders. Source: CoinGlass
Long positions accounted for more than $360 million of those losses, showing that traders positioned for further gains absorbed most of the reversal. Bitcoin positions generated about $141 million of these liquidations.
Meanwhile, the largest individual liquidation was an $11.66 million ETH-USDT position on Binance.
At the same time, Warsh’s speech also impacted the gold market. Reports revealed that the precious metal and silver lost more than $700 billion of their market value following the speech.
Higher interest-rate expectations create several headwinds for crypto simultaneously. Rising Treasury yields increase the returns available on dollar-denominated assets, while a stronger dollar typically tightens financial conditions for speculative markets.
More restrictive policy expectations can also reduce the liquidity backdrop that helped drive Bitcoin’s recent advance.
This Friday’s reaction showed how quickly that relationship can reassert itself. Bitcoin had been trading near $80,000 before Warsh’s speech became the market’s dominant macro catalyst, with contemporaneous reports showing the cryptocurrency falling more than 3% as rate-hike expectations climbed.
A quieter Fed could leave crypto with more rate volatility
Warsh offered little certainty about what the Fed will actually do next.
The chairman has moved away from the forward guidance his predecessors used heavily, arguing that telegraphing policy paths can distort markets and constrain the central bank when economic conditions change.
He also rejected the idea of giving investors a mechanical reaction function that would dictate how rates should respond to individual economic reports.
That approach could make upcoming inflation and employment releases more consequential for Bitcoin and other risk assets because traders will have fewer signals from the Fed about how policymakers intend to respond.
Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok has argued that such a regime could push more interest-rate moves outside Fed meeting days as investors continuously reprice economic data instead of waiting for policymakers to validate expectations.
Slok noted that since the Fed began raising rates in 2022, much of the increase in longer-term Treasury yields has occurred outside FOMC meetings as inflation reports, employment data, Treasury issuance and the term premium became larger drivers of the bond market.
Warsh reinforced that philosophy Friday, saying markets should form their own expectations rather than look primarily to the Fed for their “next trade.”
For Bitcoin, Friday provided an early example of what that environment could look like.
Warsh stopped short of committing to a September increase, leaving incoming data to determine whether the Fed follows through. But his insistence that inflation remains too high, financial conditions are not particularly restrictive, and interest rates remain the central bank’s main policy tool was enough to revive tightening fears.
Analyst Crypto Patel says Bitcoin has followed the exact same cycle three times in a row, and he is betting the current downturn sets up another run worth ten times the cryptocurrency’s price from here.
The call, posted Wednesday, arrives as Bitcoin sits at around $65,000, down almost half from its October 2025 all-time high, with trading activity thinning to levels not seen since the last bear market.
The Pattern, According to Patel
Crypto Patel posted his analysis on X, describing what he calls the “BTC Cycle Blueprint.” His comparison begins with Bitcoin’s first major cycle, when it reached $19,666 before falling 84% and later rallying to $69,000.
The second cycle followed a similar sequence. Bitcoin fell 77% from its $69,000 peak before finding support around a bullish order block and fair value gap. It then climbed to a record $126,000.
Patel believes the current cycle is following the same structure. Bitcoin went past $126,000 before entering a decline that he estimates at 69%, with the expectation that the market will form another bullish order block around $50,000 to $40,000.
“Each Cycle: Smaller Drawdown. Higher High. Same Playbook,” the analyst wrote, adding that Bitcoin is currently sitting near the area he believes will become that bullish order block. He then assigned a projected target of 1,000% upside.
Patel’s argument rests heavily on repetition. According to him, the pattern has “NEVER Failed,” although the post does not provide a statistical test of the pattern or explain how the 1,000% target is calculated. The forecast therefore remains a technical thesis rather than a confirmed market path.
The OG cryptocurrency has traded in a tight band this week, moving between roughly $62,500 and $65,000 over the past seven days, and Ted Pillows noted earlier today that BTC needs to hold $65,500 or risk another leg down to $62,500.
Others are also watching for another Bitcoin decline, although their targets differ. One of them, Tony Research, said that traders should not short Bitcoin at current levels. They expect a move toward $68,500 to $69,400 and then $72,000 before a possible final drop in late August or September. They also expect selected altcoins to gain 40% to 100% if Bitcoin reaches the higher targets.
Where the Bigger Picture Stands
But not everyone agrees the four-year cycle Patel is describing still applies, with market watchers, including Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes, previously questioning whether the pattern holds this time around.
Bitcoin has not closed above $100,000 since November 13, 2025, and SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci told CNBC this week that the next halving, expected around April 2028, should “tighten prices” enough to push the asset back over that mark. Scaramucci made a similar call before the 2024 halving, predicting BTC would reach $170,000, but it peaked at just over $126,000 instead.
Bitcoin’s price suddenly jumped toward $70K earlier today as investors reacted to an unexpected intervention in the US government bond market.
As CryptoPotato reported, the price tapped almost $70,000, leaving more than $1 billion in liquidated positions across the derivatives market. This is pretty much the highest BTC has traded since the middle of June.
The catalyst for that move appears to have been an announcement on behalf of the US Treasury Department, which will be doubling (at least) the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government debt, raising them from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The changes will start on September 9th and remain in place through November 4.
Why the Treasury’s Move Matters for Bitcoin
The announcement came after increased stress in the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on Tuesday, which was its highest level since 2007. This came amid persistent inflation concerns, heavy government borrowing, and worries about the overall US fiscal outlook.
As Politico reported, the government is stepping up purchases of older Treasury securities as pressure builds in the long end of the market. And the market’s reaction was immediate. The 30-year yield dropped toward 5.20%, while the 10-year yield also moved lower.
This prompted a move in stocks, gold, and crypto, all of which moved up, while the dollar weakened. Lower bond yields can make non-yielding and riskier assets relatively more attractive.
Did the US Government Finally Blink?
In a detailed thread on X, the Kobeissi Letter described the decision as the intervention it had been expecting since July 31. That was when long-term US borrowing costs were already reaching very high levels – unseen since before the global financial crisis (as mentioned above).
TKL argued that the government has a strong incentive to prevent yields from rising indefinitely because its interest bill is becoming increasingly expensive.
Still, the program should not be confused with Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE). Treasury buybacks are usually designed to improve trading liquidity in older securities, and the additional purchases remain small relative to the enormous Treasury market.
For Bitcoin’s price, however, this entire ordeal showed exactly how sensitive the asset is to changes in yields, the dollar, and expectations for financial-market liquidity. It’s true that many tech stocks also moved up throughout the past few hours, but none of it has been as pronounced as the jump in crypto prices.
Global bond yields have reached levels last seen in July 2008. Bitcoin (BTC) did not exist then. The asset has never traded through borrowing costs this high, and it is not benefiting now.
Gold rose 32% over the past year. Bitcoin fell 46%. Investors who expected a debt squeeze to lift a scarce asset backed the wrong one.
Bitcoin and Gold Price Performance. Source: TradingView
Bond Yields Return to a Level Bitcoin Has Never Seen
A bond yield is what a government pays to borrow. Those costs are now the heaviest in almost two decades.
A Bloomberg gauge of long-dated government debt hit its highest yield since July 2008 in May. It tracks sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years or more.
🚨 BOND MARKET CRISIS IS HITTING THE ENTIRE WORLD
The Bloomberg Global Long Bond Index yield has surged to around 4.2%, its highest level since July 2008.
Long term government borrowing costs are now back at levels last seen during the global financial crisis.
Bitcoin’s whitepaper appeared that October. The first block followed on January 3, 2009, six months after the peak.
Satoshi Nakamoto stamped that block with a newspaper line.
“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks,” source, genesis block.
Bitcoin was built as an answer to failing government finances. Those finances are strained again. This time the answer is the asset falling.
The move is global, though not uniform. UK 10-year gilts pay 5.05%, the highest of the major markets. Germany sits at 3.21%, a high only since 2011.
Japan pays 2.88% after decades pinned near zero.
Six-panel weekly chart of 10-year government bond yields for the US, UK, Germany, Japan, Australia and France. Source: TradingView
“We’re seeing a broader repricing of duration driven by fiscal realities, persistent inflation risks and some political uncertainty,” Bloomberg reported, citing Barclays strategist Patrick Coffey, who named the driver when the gauge first broke out.
Why Elevated Real Yields Cap Bitcoin
Compare the two eras directly. The US 10-year paid 2.46% on January 2, 2009, per Treasury records. It now pays 4.69%. The long end moved further. The 30-year paid 2.83% in Bitcoin’s first week.
The Treasury sold $25 billion of the same bond on August 13 at 5.216%, the highest since 2001.
💰 The US Treasury just sold 10-year debt at the highest yield in nearly 20 years. Why are bond markets sending a different message from the Fed? Hear more on the Reuters Morning Bid podcast https://t.co/aOp9iaAbk2pic.twitter.com/hTZaodXfrL
Demand was soft, part of the global bond selloff. Bids covered the auction 2.39 times against a 2.43 average. Dealers absorbed 11.6% instead of the usual 10.6%.
Real yields make the squeeze concrete. A real yield is what a bond pays after inflation. The 10-year real yield reached 2.41% on August 14. Two years earlier it paid 1.77%.
That is the bar Bitcoin has to clear. Investors can now beat inflation using government debt and take almost no risk. Bitcoin pays nothing. BTC traded at $63,072 with a market value of $1.27 trillion, down 46% in a year.
Foreign yields bite the same way. Japanese and European investors can now earn at home, which shrinks the global risk pool crypto draws on. Japanese government bond losses show the strain.
What Would Flip the Setup
Cause decides the outcome. Yields driven by growth punish Bitcoin. Yields driven by doubt over solvency should favor a scarce alternative.
Gold has taken that trade. The metal traded for $4,376 as of this writing, after a 32% year, even as U.S. debt interest costs keep climbing.
So watch auctions, not charts. Stronger demand for long-dated debt would ease the pressure on the Bitcoin price.
Until then the test is simple. Bitcoin was designed for a moment like this. It has never had to prove that at these yields.
A fresh fight over Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap has pulled Adam Back and Peter Todd onto opposite sides, after Todd’s case for a permanent block reward resurfaced this week.
Todd wants a small, never-ending issuance to keep paying miners once the last new Bitcoin arrives around 2140. Back reads the argument as a trap dressed up as engineering.
Why Peter Todd Says Bitcoin Needs a Permanent Block Reward
Bitcoin pays miners in two ways. Block subsidies mint new coins, and transaction fees ride along with each block. However, the subsidy is roughly halved every four years, and it hits zero around 2140. Fees alone must carry security after that.
Todd argues fee revenue swings too wildly to hold the chain together. Miners would be incentivized to reorganize the chain and re-mine fat-fee blocks rather than build forward. A fixed reward, he says, kills that pull.
His case leans on lost coins. Todd models supply against a loss rate and finds it settles at a ceiling, because coins vanish as fast as fresh ones appear. Therefore, he frames tail emission as a stabilizer, not inflation.
He has pointed to Monero, which already runs a small permanent reward. Its apparent inflation rate keeps sliding toward zero. The Bitcoin++ conference account resurfaced his talk on the topic this week, which reopened the argument.
The timing matters less than the mechanism. Miners currently earn 3.125 bitcoin per block, and close to 30 more halvings sit ahead. Each one thins the subsidy further while fees stay lumpy and unpredictable.
Adam Back Warns of False Narratives
Back rejects the framing outright. Meanwhile, he points to BIP-110, the contentious 2026 soft fork that tried to filter non-payment data out of blocks, as the model for how these campaigns get sold.
trick is finding ways to trigger and rally people to your dangerously inadvisable cause with simple though false narrarives. 110 used 1) JPEG spam and illegal comtent could be stopped but devs are captured so they won’t, 2) anti layer2 anchors devs want to etheriumize bitcoin.
That pattern has a recent scoreboard. The failed BIP-110 fork died after two blocks this month, with miner support near 2.53% against a 55% bar. Back had predicted the stall weeks earlier, and backers now chase a breakaway coin instead.
Bitcoin commentator Trey Sellers made the parallel explicit, writing that a supply-schedule fork would fail as hard as BIP-110, if not harder. Michael Saylor had raised a related worry, warning about protocol neutrality whenever consensus rules bend to one camp.
Still, the security question survives the politics. Bitcoin Knots developers spent August claiming the network faces attack, while miner incentive disputes drew in former Ripple CTO David Schwartz. In contrast to those fights, this one carries no deadline.
One difference cuts against Todd. BIP-110 asked for a soft fork, which needs only miner cooperation. Raising the cap demands a hard fork, and every holder would have to accept it.
Fees may yet fund the chain on their own. Nobody alive today will see that test settled.
Peter Schiff has put a number on the bond market’s damage. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), built on the world’s safest debt, fell to $81.89 on Friday.
That is a fresh 52-week low. The fund peaked at $179.70 in March 2020. It has now lost more than half its value.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Source: Investing.com
The Safest Trade in Markets Lost Half Its Value
TLT holds US government bonds maturing in more than 20 years. None can realistically default. The Treasury backs every one. So the risk was never that America stops paying. The risk was interest rates.
Bond prices fall when yields rise. This fund feels it harder than almost anything.
TLT carries an effective duration of 14.9 years, according to iShares. In plain terms, a one point rise in yields costs roughly 15% of the price.
TLTFixed Income iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Portfolio Characteristics. Source: iShares
The real damage is worse than Schiff’s number. The fall from $179.70 to Friday’s low works out at 54%.
Then there is inflation. Prices have risen 29% since March 2020, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In purchasing power, long bond holders are down closer to 65%.
Bids covered the offering 2.39 times, in line with recent sales. Demand was adequate. The price was not.
That yield is the story. Across 92 sales of 30-year bonds since 2001, only one cost the government more, Treasury auction records show. That was February 2001, at 5.46%.
What happened next is worth pausing on. Nine months after that sale, the Treasury stopped issuing 30-year bonds completely. Officials expected to retire the national debt within a few years.
The bond returned in 2006, once surpluses had turned into deficits. It now costs the most since the year Washington believed it would never need it again. BeInCrypto has tracked how surging bond yields have failed to lift risk assets this year.
Schiff, a gold advocate and long-running Bitcoin critic, framed the low as a verdict on anyone who chose safety.
“$TLT, the 20-year U.S. Treasury ETF, just hit a new low for the year. Trump thinks America is winning, but anyone who invested in Treasuries is losing bigly. TLT is down 6% so far in 2026 and 50% from its 2020 high. Plus, real losses are much greater when adjusted for inflation,” he wrote.
His numbers check out, and the 50% is conservative. The 2026 price decline is 5.81%, per Barchart. Counting the interest the fund pays monthly, that narrows to 2.78%.
What Peter Schiff’s Warning Means for Bitcoin
The link to crypto is opportunity cost. TLT now yields 5.17% over 30 days. A government bond paying above 5% competes directly with an asset that pays nothing.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $62,968 on Friday, down 3.2% in 24 hours. Schiff argued in July that the next major crash would start in the bond market rather than in crypto.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Bitcoin holders read the same numbers the other way. Borrowing costs at 25-year highs, they argue, are the case for a scarce asset outside the banking system. Through 2026, the yield pressure has won that argument.
The next test comes quickly. The Treasury sells $16 billion of 20-year bonds on Wednesday.
Weak demand would push long yields higher and keep the pressure on Bitcoin. Strong demand would give both markets room to breathe.
