Bitcoin’s bearish structure over the past few weeks has raised clear concerns about the flagship cryptocurrency’s future. Amid these concerns are speculations concerning its trajectory, some of which point to bottoms as low as $25,000. However, an on-chain analyst recently took to the social media platform X to explain why Bitcoin’s fall to $25,000 is an unlikely scenario in its current cycle.
Electrical Cost Model Points To Potential Bitcoin Bottom
In a June 6 post on X, crypto analyst Ted Pillows implied that the Bitcoin price might see further declines before a definitive bear market bottom is established. This conjecture is based on the Bitcoin Electrical Cost model.
For context, the model estimates Bitcoin’s fundamental production costs by measuring the electricity required to mine new BTC. Because mining operations tend to consume substantial amounts of energy, the metric is often used as a proxy for Bitcoin’s inherent value. This is because it represents the minimum price at which miners can sustainably operate over the long term.
In line with historical data, Pillows explained that Bitcoin bear markets have never fallen below this Electrical Cost, despite the severe drawdowns seen during these periods. On the contrary, bear markets have often found bottoms near this crucial price level.
Pillows pointed out that Bitcoin’s current Electrical Cost sits at approximately $48,694 — a threshold still somewhat far from Bitcoin’s current market price. According to the analyst, this suggests that the BTC price could find support near $50,000 if the current downturn continues.
However, Pillows highlighted a caveat in this analysis, stating that it would take an extraordinary global event for this support zone to be broken. In the event that the world is hit by a recession or a pandemic as severe as COVID, the Bitcoin price could temporarily fall below its estimated production cost due to panic-driven sales.
Silent BTC Accumulation On Binance Underway As Outflows Steadily Climb
In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted an interesting contradiction ongoing within the Bitcoin market. According to the on-chain analyst, BTC accumulation events have been underway on Binance.
The analyst noted that technical indicators — notably, the RSI (14) and the EMA50/200 — are telling a clearly bearish story. RSI readings, for example, have fallen to extreme levels near 6.4, and the EMA50/200 currently displays a “Death Cross” pattern.
At the same time, Binance’s Exchange Netflows reads as negative (-0.58σ), indicating that Bitcoin is leaving Binance consistently—an event that further suggests its holders are accumulating BTC rather than simply panic-selling. But then CryptoOnchain explained that the unignorable threat of a long squeeze still looms, given the high Open Interest.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $602,388, reflecting an almost 3% jump in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin is still trading above $60,000, but there are questions as to whether that area has already become the macro bottom for this correction or whether another crash could still drag the price back into that zone. Technical analysis using Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, prior cycle support, and the 21-week and 50-week EMA trend presents the bullish side of that trend, but bears can still argue that confirmation has not arrived until Bitcoin breaks above the weekly EMA structure.
Bitcoin Might Have Bottomed Already
The strongest argument that Bitcoin may have already bottomed is from the weekly RSI indicator. According to the thesis shared by Cryptoposeidon on X, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen below 30 only four times in history. The first three came around the January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022 lows, all of which later became macro bottom zones.
Back in January 2015, Bitcoin’s RSI fell to about 28 when the price fell to $200. A similar pattern played out in December 2018, when RSI dipped below 30 around $3,500, followed by about three months of sideways accumulation before Bitcoin broke higher. The third instance was June 2022, in the depths of the bear market that followed the Luna collapse.
The fourth reading came in early February 2026, shortly after Bitcoin’s crash into a bottom around $63,000, and this supports the proposal that Bitcoin may have already gone through its major capitulation phase.
The weekly candlestick timeframe chart below also shows the RSI recovering from a low band similar to the previous bear-market bottom zones, with the projected path suggesting that momentum could spend more time rebuilding before a stronger move returns in 2027.
What Confirmation And Return To $100,000 Actually Looks Like
The last two bear markets both took 364 days to move from peak to trough. The current correction is now 236 days old, which leaves a 128-day window for Bitcoin to make another low if it follows the same timing pattern.
However, looking at November 2022, Bitcoin broke below the prior cycle’s $19,900 peak and collapsed to $15,500, spending a brief period under $16,000. That breakdown was forced by the FTX implosion, a black swan event that liquidated billions in assets and obliterated confidence simultaneously. Without a comparable catalytic shock, current crypto market dynamics lack the mechanism to sustain prices below $60,000 within the remaining 128-day window for a bottom.
Bitcoin’s long-term support band is between $58,000 and $66,000, and the February 2026 low is inside that range. Bitcoin can still wick to $55,000 or even $50,000 in a liquidation event, but spending a long period below $60,000 would require a very strong bearish catalyst.
On the other hand, a reclaim and monthly close above the weekly EMA and $80,000 in June 2026 would change the conversation from “Is $60,000 the bottom?” to “How fast can Bitcoin rebuild toward $100,000?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,860, down by 1.2% in the past 24 hours.
Ethereum’s market sentiment has deteriorated significantly as the blockchain network’s native ETH token moves through a medium-term bear phase.
Data from blockchain analytics platform Santiment shows that while ETH-related discussions increased in frequency throughout May, the tone of that commentary has shifted toward frustration, disappointment, and concern about deeper downside potential.
Ethereum Market Sentiment (Source: Santiment)
Analysts at the firm noted that this shift in sentiment reflects a combination of market pressures building simultaneously, including weak spot price action, persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, high-profile departures from the Ethereum Foundation, public criticism from longtime ecosystem supporters, and stronger price momentum across competing layer-1 networks like Hyperliquid, Zcash, and Solana.
Broader market data from CryptoQuant reinforces this picture of institutional deceleration. The firm’s spot market and fundamental indicators point to severe structural weakness as ETH prices drop toward the critical $2,000 support level.
This has created a split-market identity in which spot investors are steadily reducing exposure, market liquidity has thinned, and institutional buying pressure has largely vanished from major trading desks.
Spot selling leaves Ethereum without a durable bid
Indeed, CryptoQuant’s fund-tracking data highlights the extent of the contraction in the institutional bid over the last two quarters.
According to the firm, total fund holdings, which peaked above 7 million ETH in October 2025, have steadily declined to a range around 5.5 million ETH.
This persistent unwinding indicates that large-scale allocators have systematically reduced their core exposure throughout the current multi-month drawdown.
Notably, the regulated ETF market has reinforced this structural pressure. Total assets under management across Ethereum ETFs now stand near $12.14 billion, marking a 23% decline from their January peak.
Data from SoSoValue shows that May proved particularly challenging, with two consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling approximately $470 million, representing one of the largest episodes of concentrated capital flight of the year.
Ethereum ETFs Weekly Outflows (Source: SoSoValue)
This institutional withdrawal is further illustrated by the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price disparity between Coinbase Pro and major offshore platforms.
The index remained negative throughout May, signaling an absence of spot demand from US institutional buyers.
At the same time, ETH liquidity has thinned alongside this reduction in fund reserves.
According to CryptoQuant, daily fund trading volume has trended downward since February 2026, dropping well below its trailing 1-year moving average to a recent range of $17 million to $42 million.
This volume compression points to a thinner spot market where dip-buying appetite has faded, leaving the asset highly exposed to volatility spikes during periods of negative news.
ETH options traders hedge as leveraged longs hold on
Beneath the spot market liquidation, derivatives data reveal an ongoing debate over whether ETH is breaking into a structural decline or forming a base for a leveraged rebound.
This disconnect has left the derivatives market divided, with professional traders aggressively hedging downside risk even as speculative perpetual futures traders maintain long positioning.
Data from Block Scholes reveals that ETH’s 25-delta risk reversal skew over a seven-day horizon has traded near-7%, indicating that options market participants are paying a premium for downside put protection.
This defensive posture is supported by clearing data from the Deribit exchange, where open interest for put options targeting the $2,100 and $2,000 strike prices has concentrated past $380 million, placing those technical areas at the center of short-term institutional positioning.
ETH Options Traders Positioning (Source: Deribit)
Market Note: This concentrated options activity reflects a market preparing for extended weakness. Having already slipped below the $2,100 support shelf, Block Scholes’ risk appetite indexes show slowing momentum, leaving the asset dependent on defensive hedging in the absence of spot accumulation.
Concurrently, the perpetual futures market sends a more complicated signal. CryptoQuant data shows that Ethereum’s derivatives funding rate has settled firmly in positive territory, reaching 0.0082 on May 21, 2026.
Ethereum Funding Rates (Source: CryptoQuant)
This positive rate indicates that speculative long bias has not fully collapsed despite declines in market capitalization, fund holdings, and spot trading volume.
The resulting split identity creates a delicate technical backdrop: while options traders position for a breakdown, perpetual futures traders continue to hold leveraged long exposure.
This structural disconnect can fuel rapid short-squeezes if spot demand unexpectedly returns, but it significantly elevates the risk of cascading liquidations if the spot price breaches the heavy open interest concentrated at the $2,000 floor.
Ethereum Foundation exits collide with a weaker ETH value thesis
Ethereum’s financial underperformance has coincided with an acceleration of senior personnel departures from the Ethereum Foundation (EF), the Swiss non-profit entity that stewards the blockchain’s core development.
The internal churn intensified following the formal resignations of research veterans Carl Beek and Julian Ma. Beek had spent seven years focused on Beacon Chain design, while Ma authored the network’s Forwarding Oversight Committee for Incentivized Labs (FOCIL) framework.
Their departures bring the total number of senior exits or step-backs to at least nine since February, with five landing in May alone.
The list includes former co-Executive Director Tomasz Stańczak, board co-steward Josh Stark, Protocol Guild contributor Trent Van Epps, and protocol cluster leads Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko.
Additionally, senior researcher Alex Stokes recently commenced a three-month sabbatical, further thinning the organization’s visible technical leadership during a period of acute market stress.
Ecosystem analysts trace this administrative migration back to the publication of the foundation’s “Mandate” document in mid-March.
The 38-page framework codified the foundation’s dedication to “CROPS” principles: censorship resistance, open-source deployment, privacy, and base-layer security.
Crucially, the document framed the foundation as an ecosystem steward rather than a corporate enterprise, explicitly stating that its purpose is to protect network neutrality, not to maximize token price, optimize investor returns, or aggressively coordinate commercial expansion.
This neutrality-first posture has become increasingly difficult for parts of the market to accept as alternative networks capture speculative market share.
Tommy Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Ventures, noted that the departures are more serious than they appear, adding that the exit of reform-minded personnel leaves fewer internal voices to challenge the foundation’s structural direction.
Reform calls test Ethereum’s neutrality-first model
The perceived lack of commercial execution by the foundation has prompted several prominent former insiders to call for structural governance reforms.
Dankrad Feist, a notable researcher who left the foundation last year to join the Stripe-backed layer-1 network Tempo, publicly advocated creating an entirely separate entity to safeguard the network’s economic relevance.
Feist proposed establishing an independent, alternative organization backed by at least $1 billion in capital, funded in part by network staking revenues. This proposed body would be directly accountable to token holders and expressly tasked with driving ETH’s financial adoption and market value.
According to him, this leaves the ecosystem without an agile institution incentivized to promote the asset in capital markets.
Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams supported this view, stating that Ethereum’s future cannot depend solely on the foundation.
Adams argued that the ecosystem requires competitive, well-capitalized institutions dedicated to capital efficiency, aggressive communication, and commercial execution. These are roles the foundation was never structurally designed to fulfill.
The consensus among these reform proposals is not to replace the foundation, but to establish a dual-institution model: one to protect base-layer neutrality and public goods, and another to promote the asset and compete for institutional capital.
This push for reform has drawn a direct response from Ethereum bulls, who argue that the market is overreacting to short-term price action and natural organizational transitions.
ETH investor member Ryan Berckmans characterized the talent turnover as a healthy handoff to a younger generation of developers.
Berckmans argued that Ethereum has successfully navigated previous periods of regulatory pressure and leadership transitions while still delivering major upgrades like the Merge, blob transactions, and a dominant position in on-chain application capital.
He noted that the expanding deployment of stablecoins and tokenized assets by global corporations continues to support the network’s long-term trajectory.
This perspective is shared by substantial institutional holders.
Thomas Lee, chairman of BitMine, dismissed the current market anxiety as typical cyclical capitulation. BitMIne is the largest publicly traded corporate holder of ETH, with a portfolio of 5.2 million ETH and over $10 billion actively staked tokens.
BitMine Key Metrics (Source: BitMine Tracker)
Lee asserted that blockchain infrastructure represents the foundational settlement highway for agentic artificial intelligence commerce and institutional finance, positions where Ethereum maintains a distinct structural advantage due to its established security record, deep liquidity, and institutional familiarity.
How Ethereum can recover from the current FUD
Market observers have noted that Ethereum’s near-term trajectory now hinges on whether its technical roadmap and commercial moats translate into a coherent investment thesis for ETH.
Strategic analysis from Galaxy Digital indicates that the network must execute a disciplined operational agenda to reverse ongoing capital flight.
According to Galaxy’s recovery framework, the immediate focus must center on shipping the Glamsterdam upgrade, keeping the subsequent Hegotá deployment on track, clarifying administrative responsibilities within the foundation, and concentrating resources on core commercial verticals.
These key areas include high-value decentralized finance, institutional asset issuance, tokenized RWAs, stablecoin settlement, and privacy-preserving financial infrastructure. These are sectors where Ethereum’s credible neutrality and security record serve as a commercial necessity rather than an abstract principle.
Galaxy also pointed to the need for Ethereum to move faster on narratives likely to define the next cycle, including layer-1 scaling, on-chain privacy, post-quantum security, and AI-native economic infrastructure.
While much of this technical architecture is documented in the open-source “Strawmap” development framework, the more complex challenge remains the coordination among commercial and institutional actors.
This coordination gap sits at the center of Ethereum’s current market friction.
The foundation’s Mandate provides a clear statement of base-layer engineering principles, but it does not provide capital markets with a simple answer on value accrual, nor does it create an entity designed to defend the asset against aggressive layer-1 competitors.
Consequently, the current drawdown has evolved into more than a simple price correction; it is an active test of whether a decentralized structure can distribute commercial responsibility across new institutions without losing operational coherence.
If the ecosystem can turn its current administrative churn into clearly defined roles and convert its technical roadmap into a concise asset case, this period of underperformance could serve as a necessary governance reset.
However, if it cannot, the market may continue to treat weak spot demand, senior departures, and the application-layer economic shift as evidence that Ethereum’s network strength no longer guarantees protection of the underlying token’s value.
A closely-followed cryptocurrency analyst who accurately called Bitcoin’s peak near $125,000 earlier this year is now forecasting continued downward pressure on the digital asset, citing deteriorating technical structures and broader macroeconomic headwinds affecting multiple financial markets.
Track Record of Accurate Predictions
Doctor Profit, a market analyst with a demonstrated history of precise Bitcoin forecasts, has published an updated market assessment detailing his expectations for the cryptocurrency moving forward. His recent track record includes successfully projecting Bitcoin’s climb to approximately $125,000, followed by subsequent declines to $100,000 and then to $60,000—all of which materialized within weeks of his calls.
Most recently, Doctor Profit predicted that Bitcoin would consolidate within a range between $57,000 and $87,000. The cryptocurrency has largely adhered to this projection, trading near $76,000 last week before declining sharply to $68,000 in subsequent days. According to the analyst, these movements represent what he characterizes as “bullish traps”—temporary rallies that ultimately fail to establish sustainable upward momentum.
This movement represents one of many bullish traps he has repeatedly warned about, signaling a continued bear market trend.
— Doctor Profit, Market Analyst
Analyst Background and Market Influence
Doctor Profit has established himself as a prominent voice within cryptocurrency and financial markets analysis communities, with a growing following among institutional and retail traders seeking alternative perspectives on market direction. His methodology combines technical analysis with macroeconomic assessment, allowing him to contextualize cryptocurrency movements within broader financial system dynamics. This interdisciplinary approach has contributed to his credibility, particularly among investors uncomfortable with the prevailing optimistic consensus on Bitcoin and technology equities.
The analyst’s influence extends across multiple platforms and reaches a diverse audience ranging from day traders executing short-term tactical positions to longer-term portfolio managers reassessing asset allocation. His willingness to maintain contrarian positions—even when facing significant social media criticism—has enhanced his reputation among followers who value conviction-based analysis independent of crowd sentiment.
Current Market Positioning and Strategy
Based on his bearish thesis, Doctor Profit has adjusted his trading positions accordingly. He disclosed that he recently liquidated Bitcoin holdings purchased approximately two weeks prior at the $68,000 level. Currently, the analyst maintains a significant short position established in the $115,000 to $125,000 range, positioning himself to profit from further downside movement.
Looking ahead, Doctor Profit indicated he may expand his bearish exposure by adding additional short positions between $79,000 and $84,000, potentially using 5x leverage to amplify potential returns from continued price declines. This aggressive positioning reflects his conviction regarding the strength of the ongoing bear market.
Analyst Position
Doctor Profit maintains short positions on Bitcoin established between $115,000 and $125,000, with potential additional shorts planned for the $79,000 to $84,000 region using 5x leverage.
Cryptocurrency Market Context and Industry Dynamics
Bitcoin’s current valuation and technical positioning must be understood within the context of the broader cryptocurrency industry’s evolution. The digital asset class has matured significantly since institutional adoption accelerated in 2020-2021, with major corporations, pension funds, and investment vehicles now holding material Bitcoin allocations. This institutional presence creates different market dynamics than existed during previous cycles, potentially supporting floor valuations while simultaneously reducing extreme volatility.
However, the cryptocurrency industry remains subject to regulatory uncertainty, technological disruption, and macroeconomic sensitivity. Recent regulatory developments in major markets, including enhanced oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges and proposed digital asset taxation frameworks, have introduced new variables affecting investor sentiment. Additionally, the emergence of competing blockchain platforms and alternative digital assets has fragmented liquidity that previously concentrated on Bitcoin, affecting price discovery mechanisms.
Market sentiment within cryptocurrency communities has noticeably shifted from the euphoria of 2021 toward more cautious positioning. Trading volumes on major exchanges have moderated, and the diversity of opinion regarding Bitcoin’s directional bias has increased. Doctor Profit’s bearish thesis gains additional significance within this context of reduced consensus and heightened uncertainty about cryptocurrency valuations.
Systemic Market Concerns Beyond Cryptocurrency
Doctor Profit’s bearish outlook extends significantly beyond Bitcoin, encompassing broader concerns about the global financial system. As far back as September 2025, the analyst identified material stress in the repurchase agreement market, where financial institutions borrow and lend securities. He has specifically flagged risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s standing repo facility, which provides emergency liquidity backstopping to the financial system.
The analyst has also drawn attention to what he views as sustained manipulation in precious metals markets. According to his assessment, futures contracts for silver and gold have increasingly diverged from physical supply realities, with actual supply declining while paper prices remain elevated. This disconnection, in his view, signals underlying market dysfunction.
Beyond Bitcoin, the analyst noted that the entire financial market is in a “bear market scenario.”
— Doctor Profit, Market Assessment
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Market Implications
The macroeconomic environment presents multiple challenges to risk asset valuations across cryptocurrency, equities, and commodities. Persistent inflationary pressures, despite central bank efforts to moderate price growth, continue affecting consumer purchasing power and corporate margins. Interest rate policies implemented by major central banks have created uncertainty about future monetary conditions, complicating valuations for assets with long-duration cash flows.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions, supply chain vulnerabilities, and labor market dynamics create a complex backdrop against which to evaluate Bitcoin and other speculative assets. Doctor Profit’s contention that bear market conditions will predominate reflects these underlying macro concerns, suggesting that financial conditions may tighten further before stabilizing.
The implications for Bitcoin valuations extend beyond technical trading considerations. If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate significantly, investors may liquidate risk assets indiscriminately, including cryptocurrency holdings, to raise cash and reduce exposure. Conversely, if monetary authorities respond with new liquidity provision, Bitcoin might benefit as a hedge against currency debasement. Doctor Profit’s current positioning reflects skepticism about immediate liquidity provision, positioning for near-term headwinds.
Sector-Specific Concerns and Positioning
Doctor Profit has identified what he considers excessive valuations in certain equity sectors, particularly artificial intelligence and data-related stocks. Despite the sustained enthusiasm in technology markets, the analyst views these segments as significantly overextended relative to underlying economic fundamentals. Amid rising crude oil prices, he sees additional vulnerability in energy-related securities.
In response to these perceived imbalances, Doctor Profit has established short positions spanning multiple asset classes and geographic markets:
Cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin
Equity indices in select regions
AI and technology stocks
Data-sector equities
Notably, the analyst reports that his short positions across all these categories are currently profitable, suggesting that at least some of his market calls have validated his thesis in real-time. This track record appears to strengthen his conviction regarding the persistence of the broader bear market environment.
Market Outlook
Doctor Profit expects bear market conditions to predominate across most financial assets in the coming period, with only select assets maintaining strength. Bitcoin specifically lacks clear directional momentum and remains technically vulnerable.
Technical Analysis and Forward Guidance
From a purely technical perspective, Doctor Profit maintains that Bitcoin’s price structure continues to deteriorate. The cryptocurrency lacks definitive directional strength, instead moving sideways within established ranges. This lack of conviction to the upside, combined with multiple failed rallies, suggests that downward pressure may reassert itself during the next significant market move.
The analyst’s work over the past several months has emphasized identifying false breakouts and failed recovery attempts—moments when prices briefly spike higher before collapsing. By recognizing these patterns, traders and investors can position themselves defensively rather than being caught off-guard by reversals.
Doctor Profit’s holistic view encompasses not just cryptocurrency markets but the entire spectrum of financial assets. His assessment suggests that systemic issues affecting repo markets, precious metals pricing, and equity valuations collectively point toward sustained pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin, as a risk asset that tends to move inversely with traditional safe havens, may face continued headwinds under such conditions.
Investment Implications and Strategic Considerations
For market participants evaluating Bitcoin exposure, Doctor Profit’s analysis presents important considerations that transcend short-term price speculation. The interconnectedness of cryptocurrency markets with traditional finance suggests that Bitcoin’s direction increasingly reflects broader economic conditions rather than developments within the digital asset ecosystem alone.
Investors with long-term cryptocurrency holdings might benefit from reassessing their conviction level regarding Bitcoin valuations, particularly if macroeconomic conditions continue deteriorating. The analyst’s warning about “bullish traps” suggests that apparent recoveries may provide optimal exit opportunities rather than entry points for new positions. Conversely, traders with shorter time horizons might exploit the volatility within the predicted $57,000-$87,000 range through tactical positioning.
The breadth of Doctor Profit’s bearish thesis—extending across multiple asset classes and geographic markets—suggests that portfolio diversification alone may provide insufficient protection during the projected market environment. Investors may need to reassess their overall risk exposure and consider defensive positioning across their complete asset allocation.
Conclusion: Bear Market Persistence and Market Vigilance
Doctor Profit’s updated market assessment, backed by an impressive track record of accurate predictions, points toward sustained downward pressure on Bitcoin and broader financial markets. His identification of technical deterioration, systemic financial stress, and macroeconomic headwinds creates a compelling bearish thesis that extends far beyond cryptocurrency into traditional finance.
The analyst’s willingness to maintain significant short positions—including leveraged exposure—demonstrates genuine conviction in his forecasts. For market observers and investors, this represents a credible warning signal warranting serious consideration. Whether Doctor Profit’s bear market scenario fully materializes remains uncertain, but the consistency of his analysis and the profitability of his positions suggest that defensive positioning and heightened vigilance remain prudent strategies.
As financial markets navigate uncertainty around monetary policy, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption, Doctor Profit’s contrarian perspective provides valuable counterweight to prevailing optimistic narratives. Market participants would be well-served monitoring his continued analysis as conditions unfold and either validate or refute his bearish thesis.
Get weekly blockchain insights via the CCS Insider newsletter.
