Donald Trump delivered three major policy shocks between July 6 and July 11. He declared the Iran ceasefire over, sending Brent crude oil up 5.2%. The POTUS also ordered a halt to trade with Spain, pushing Spain’s stock market index IBEX 35 down 2.6%.
Trump said the interim agreement with Iran was “over” after renewed attacks on commercial ships and US facilities in the Gulf. American forces then launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets.
Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent settled 5.2% higher, while WTI gained 4.4% and reached a two-week high. The S&P 500 and Dow closed lower, while the STOXX 600 recorded its steepest decline since March.
The surge in oil also pushed Treasury yields higher as investors priced in greater inflation risk. Higher fuel costs could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
However, Trump later said the US would continue talks with Iran and played down the prospect of another full-scale war.
Oil just went through one of its most volatile months in years.
The reason is the US-Iran war, which restarted in February after everyone assumed it had ended with last year’s ceasefire.
Since then, oil has swung from $58 to $119 and back down to $71, driven almost entirely by… pic.twitter.com/qtk4mxom6U
Markets will now focus on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around one-fifth of global oil supply.
Spain Trade Threat Hits Stocks and Bonds
Trump also ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to halt trade and visits with Spain. He accused Madrid of failing to spend enough on defence and obstructing the US campaign against Iran.
Spanish markets fell sharply after the comments. The IBEX 35 lost 2.6%, making it Europe’s worst-performing major index that day.
IBEX 35 is Spain’s Benchmark Stock Market Index in Madrid. Source: Yahoo Finance
Santander shares dropped 4.3%, BBVA fell 3% and Zara owner Inditex declined 3.6%. Spain’s 10-year government bond yield rose nine basis points as investors demanded a higher return for holding its debt.
It remains unclear whether Trump can impose a complete bilateral embargo. The European Union handles trade policy for its members, and US-Spain commerce has continued despite earlier threats.
Still, prolonged uncertainty could weigh on Spanish banks, exporters, airlines and tourism companies.
BREAKING: President Trump says the US is “cutting off all trade with Spain.”
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 8, 2026
Trump Hardens His Position on Russia
Trump made a significant shift on Ukraine during the NATO summit in Ankara. He said the US would license Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air-defence systems, technology Kyiv has requested for years.
Days later, US senators announced an agreement with the Trump administration to advance tougher sanctions against Russia. The legislation could target countries that continue buying Russian oil and gas.
Markets have yet to show a clear reaction because Congress has not approved the final bill. Its impact will depend on the sanctions, exemptions and enforcement measures included in the final text.
President Trump said Wednesday the U.S. will give Ukraine a production license to build its own Patriot missile interceptors for defense, granting a major request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid the ongoing war with Russia. pic.twitter.com/BkG2GIOCRq
Strong secondary sanctions could disrupt Russian oil flows to China, India and Turkey. That would place further pressure on energy prices while increasing demand for alternative supplies.
Meanwhile, the Patriot decision could support defence manufacturers and suppliers. It also signals that Washington may apply greater military and economic pressure on Moscow.
Crypto and energy markets are bracing for a possible Black Monday selloff. US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland collapsed over the weekend, reviving fears of an oil shock and a risk-off move into Monday.
Iran’s delegation walked out of the talks in protest over fresh threats from President Donald Trump. Based on this, analysts and traders alike anticipate stocks and crypto could open sharply lower.
Switzerland Walkout Revives Oil and Hormuz Fears
The breakdown came at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland. The US, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar had met there to extend a June 17 truce.
Iran’s team refused a group photo and walked out, state media reported.
Trump had warned he would strike Iran again over its proxies in Lebanon. He also told Iranian officials they would not make it home if Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
That threat carries weight because of the cargo. About 20 million barrels of oil cross the strait each day, near 20% of global consumption, the EIA reports.
Still, the waterway has stayed open through past standoffs. Iran threatened closures in 2011 and 2019 but never followed through.
Brent crude had eased to near $80 a barrel last week as crude oil slipped below the same threshold when tankers resumed transit. However, the walkout now clouds that fragile recovery.
The Iranian delegation will not return to negotiations in Switzerland unless U.S. President Trump apologizes for his threats and Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon, pro-Hezbollah Al-Mayadeen reports. Iran’s state media confirms the Iranians have left the negotiation venue. https://t.co/dxgS8sGLfG
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) June 21, 2026
When Trump declared a ceasefire earlier this month, stocks and oil reacted while crypto barely moved.
Bitcoin Holds Steady as Black Monday Calls Spread
So far, crypto has not played along. The Bitcoin (BTC) spot price held near $64,181 on Sunday, a touch higher on the day.
Ethereum (ETH) traded near $1,730. Because crypto runs around the clock, that weekend calm is a live signal, not a closed-market guess.
Crypto also has no brakes. US stocks halt automatically if the S&P 500 falls 7%, 13%, or 20% in a day. Those safeguards were built for exactly this kind of panic.
Crypto carries no such circuit breakers. A Monday slide there would run without a pause. Still, weekend sentiment soured.
“If there isn’t a massive Black Monday Crash tomorrow, I will delete my account,” one user remarked.
The phrase he borrowed carries history. On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow fell 22.6% in one session, still its worst day on record.
However, markets clawed back most of those losses within months.
Trader Ted Pillows made a similar case, calling the risk and reward of buying stocks now poor.
Even so, similar weekend warnings have misfired before, and this one could too, with Qatar and Pakistan are still mediating, and both sides have reasons to step back.
Qatar Announces Launch of Lake Lucerne Summit, First High-Level Committee Meeting with Participation of US, Iran, Pakistan
Doha | June 21, 2026
The State of Qatar announces, in its capacity as a mediator, the launch of the Lake Lucerne Summit and the first meeting of a… pic.twitter.com/Dy99n6Owi1
— Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Qatar (@MofaQatar_EN) June 21, 2026
The risk is not hypothetical. Bitcoin has repeatedly sold off with risk assets rather than acting as a haven.
When Israel struck Iran this month, more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto bets were wiped out in a day. Analysts have since mapped a sharp Bitcoin drop if the war reignites.
Monday’s futures open will be the first real test. A return to fighting could trigger a broad risk-off move across crypto.
A quick path back to talks could calm nerves just as fast. For now, traders are watching oil, the strait, and the next signal from Tehran or Washington.
Despite last week’s controversial developments on the war front between Iran, the US, and several other nations involved in the conflict, Donald Trump promised on his social media platform minutes ago that a permanent deal is expected to be announced tomorrow.
Given bitcoin’s susceptibility to positive or negative news related to the war, the question now is whether it will benefit if Trump delivers on his promise.
In his lengthy post on Truth Social, the POTUS began by blaming the previous major deal signed with Iran during Barack Obama’s presidency. He called it a “smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon,” while his agreement with the Middle Eastern country is “the exact opposite.”
He emphasized that the new deal will serve as a “WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON.” Moreover, he claimed that Iran no longer wants to develop such a weapon, “nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement.”
Perhaps most importantly, Trump promised that the deal is “scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.”
“We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future. Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again,” he added.
Recall that bitcoin’s price was immediately impacted when the war started on February 28, with a painful decline by several grand. However, it skyrocketed once the first ceasefire deal was announced and when it was extended.
As such, the overall community sentiment has shifted after Trump’s post, with anticipation of a more profound recovery if, of course, the deal is actually signed tomorrow, because this is not the first similar promise made over the past few months.
Donald Trump told reporters yet again that a deal to end the war he and Israel started with Iran could be reached in “two or three days,” even as the Middle East ceasefire cracked over the weekend and traders pulled back from oil and gold.
He said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “immediately” after an agreement, which matters because that waterway is one of the biggest pressure points in global energy trade.
Trump said both sides were near the end of talks on a “very, very good deal that will not in any way allow nuclear weapons.” Sky News Arabia also reported on Monday that a draft agreement had been sent to Washington for review and was “preliminarily acceptable” to the White House.
Trump pushes a near-term Iran deal while new strikes by Israel test the ceasefire
Right before Trump made the aforementioned comments, Iran and Israel traded strikes over the weekend for the first time since the truce began in mid-April.
Iran fired missiles toward northern Israel after accusing Jerusalem of breaking the truce through attacks in Lebanon. Those Israeli strikes included an attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday. Israel then said it had carried out a “large-scale strike on strategic defense systems” in response.
As you know, Trump has made many bold calls on his war, and had previously said the fighting would last four to six weeks, but the conflict passed the 100-day line on Sunday.
Trump also addressed a separate U.S. military incident near the Strait of Hormuz. He said the pilots of a U.S. military Apache helicopter that went down on Monday “are fine.” He added that there was “nobody injured” and said the administration would release a report on Tuesday. The cause of the crash was still unknown.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday morning after the ceasefire comments. Brent crude dropped 1.3% to $93.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8% to $89.67 a barrel. Brent was also sitting near $94 during Tuesday’s trading.
Energy and gold analysts cut through the noise with ugly price calls
Meanwhile, Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at private research firm Rystad Energy, said oil could reach $150 per barrel within the next couple of months if the fighting continues and inventories keep falling.
“At this point, unless we solve [the Middle East conflict], unless we start to see an increase in the flow, then we are going to see lower and lower inventories, which means higher and higher prices. The problem, sitting right here, right now, we are absolutely not there,” Claudio said.
Claudio also pointed to a messy, longer-term setup. Even if the current oil squeeze gets fixed, he said the market could later face a huge supply glut because of the unwinding by OPEC and the UAE leaving the cartel. “This is a year of absolute deficit, but fast forward, 2027 may turn out to be a year of humongous surplus,” Claudio said.
Gold had its own ugly setup. Prices have dropped hard since hitting an all-time high of $5,594.82 an ounce on January 29. Analysts at Citi, owned by Citigroup Inc. (C), said gold could fall to $3,500 an ounce if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the end of summer.
That would be about 19.7% below the $4,357.90 price seen at 7 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Citi said gold, often treated like the classic safe-haven trade, looks “incredibly high risk” in the short term.
Citi said a long Hormuz closure could slow global gold buying and drag prices back to levels last seen about nine months ago. Since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, gold’s safe-haven image has taken hits as traders question the reasons behind its huge run.
A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week added more pressure because it raised expectations for a year-end interest rate hike. Higher rates usually hurt gold because the metal pays no yield. Citi cut its three-month gold target to $4,000 an ounce from $4,300, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery traded at $4,352.90 on Tuesday morning.
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Mark Cuban sold most of his Bitcoin because it failed to provide a hedge when fiat confidence weakened and geopolitical risk rose.
Cuban called it “not the hedge I expected it to be,” and the price record supports his frustration. Bitcoin traded around $77,663 in mid-May 2026, roughly 38% below the record high of $126,000 set in early October 2025.
Spot gold hit a record $5,594.82 on Jan. 29, while silver touched $121.64 the same day, driven by the same macro variables Cuban cited: inflation fears, dollar weakness, and geopolitical pressure.
World Gold Council data shows that gold demand in the first quarter reached 1,231 tonnes, including OTC, and the dollar value of quarterly demand jumped 74% year over year to a record $193 billion.
Central banks bought 244 tonnes net in the same period, and bar-and-coin demand hit 474 tonnes, up 42% year over year. Cuban also told Portfolio Players he is moving more money into Ethereum than Bitcoin, but the hedge critique is specific to Bitcoin.
Under the same macro backdrop of inflation fears and dollar weakness, gold hit a record $5,594.82 while Bitcoin traded 38% below its all-time high.
The ‘digital gold’ pitch always had a problem
Bitcoin.org describes the asset as peer-to-peer money with no central authority or banks and specifies that issuance halves over time, eventually stopping at 21 million Bitcoin. Nothing in that description commits Bitcoin to rising when geopolitical stress rises.
Cuban built a thesis on the “digital gold” narrative that the market constructed and the Bitcoin whitepaper never endorsed.
Bitcoin has traded as a liquidity-sensitive, high-beta asset that correlates with the Nasdaq during risk-off episodes and surges when risk appetite returns.
Last year, crypto moved with broader equities through the April tariff shock before Bitcoin hit its October record, then suffered a major leverage wipeout. More recently, Glassnode’s May 20 report describes Bitcoin as structurally resilient but notes that spot demand has weakened, ETF accumulation has slowed, and options positioning has turned defensive.
Cuban applied a gold benchmark to an asset that has never consistently moved like gold, and the resulting distance between what he expected and what the price did is what drove him to sell.
Test
Gold
Bitcoin
Crisis behavior
Cleaner panic shelter
Often sells off with risk assets
Volatility profile
Lower, more established
Much higher, adoption-sensitive
Main demand driver
Inflation fear, geopolitics, central banks
ETF flows, liquidity, regulation, leverage cycles
Monetary property
No issuer, physical scarcity
21M cap, no central issuer, permissionless transfer
Best framing
Crisis shelter now
Monetary optionality later
Bitcoin long-term holder supply rose by over 2 million BTC during the current drawdown, reaching 16.3 million BTC, with roughly 200,000 BTC added in the past month alone. Cuban is judging Bitcoin by whether it acts like gold in a crisis, while long-term holders are judging it by whether the network still functions and the supply cap holds ten years from now.
A hedge reduces portfolio risk during stress events with some consistency, but Bitcoin’s realized volatility runs far above gold’s, its price responds to ETF flows, regulatory headlines, and leverage cycles, and it has repeatedly correlated with equity drawdowns during acute stress.
Those are the mechanics of an early-stage monetary network still pricing in adoption uncertainty, with an asset that may be powerful over a long horizon precisely because it is too volatile and too liquidity-sensitive to function as a short-term panic hedge.
Investors reach for Bitcoin, if the adoption thesis holds, when they expect the monetary system itself to look different in the next decade. The fixed supply, permissionless transferability, and absence of a central issuer are the properties that make Bitcoin worth considering as long-duration monetary optionality.
The distance between $58,000 and $165,000
Citi’s March 2026 forecast is a 12-month base target of $112,000, a recessionary downside of $58,000, and a bull case of $165,000, which captures how wide the resulting uncertainty runs.
Glassnode places the Realized Price near $54,900 as a lower structural boundary, while the $70,000 level carries weight as the pre-election anchor.
Scenario
BTC level / range
Market logic
Narrative outcome
Structural floor
~$54,900
Realized Price lower boundary
Break below here weakens the adoption case
Recessionary bear case
$58,000
Higher yields, ETF outflows, weak spot demand
Bitcoin trades like a de-risking asset
Key anchor
$70,000
Pre-election reference level
Market tests whether support is real
Base case
$112,000
Citi 12-month target
Bitcoin survives as volatile monetary optionality
Bull case
$165,000
ETF demand, regulation, risk appetite recover
Adoption thesis absorbs the hedge failure
In the bear case, higher yields, continued ETF outflows, and weak spot demand keep Bitcoin pinned near structural support.
Bitcoin trades like a de-risking asset, fails to distinguish itself from the broader risk-off environment, and gold continues to absorb the crisis-hedge flows that Bitcoin’s marketing promised to capture.
In the bull case, ETF demand recovers, regulatory progress in the US provides institutions with cleaner on-ramps, and risk appetite returns enough to push Bitcoin back through the $112,000 Citi target and toward $165,000.
Bitcoin survives the critique by operating as a scarce, borderless, permissionless monetary network that gains value as more institutions and sovereigns want an asset outside traditional finance.
The 21 million supply cap and the absence of a central issuer are the properties that make Bitcoin worth holding as a long-duration bet on monetary distrust becoming infrastructure, and those properties held through the same drawdown Cuban is citing as proof of failure.
Bitcoin’s actual case rests on offering exposure to a world where more people want money outside the traditional system, which holds regardless of how Bitcoin performs against gold in any given crisis.
Bitcoin as a call option on monetary distrust
Cuban wanted Bitcoin to act like a predictable and consistent protection against the specific risks he saw coming.
Yet, Bitcoin may be closer to a call option on monetary distrust: valuable if the thesis plays out over a decade, volatile in the meantime, and a poor substitute for gold during acute stress.
Gold is still the cleaner crisis asset by every recent measure, shown through record prices, record quarterly demand value, sustained central bank buying, and consistent performance against the macro variables that define genuine panic.
The asset Cuban sold most of his stake still has a 21 million supply cap, still operates without a central issuer, and still accumulated 200,000 BTC of long-term holder supply in the past month.
Whether that is enough to justify the price range of $58,000 to $165,000 over the next year depends on whether the adoption thesis can replenish what the hedge thesis has lost.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $75,000 on April 19 as the Strait of Hormuz shut down entirely and Iran rejected a second round of negotiations with the United States.
The developments mark a sharp escalation in the US-Iran standoff, with zero oil tankers passing through the strait and diplomatic channels appearing to collapse.
Strait of Hormuz Shuts Down as Diplomacy Stalls
No oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the waterway that handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade.
“It appears that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely closed for the first time in history. The US “blockade” and Iran’s closure are in full force,” wrote The Kobeissi Letter.
Reportedly, thirteen tankers had already turned back mid-route the day before, freezing shipping flows through the critical chokepoint.
Iran’s state media confirmed that Tehran rejected participating in a second round of talks with Washington. Iranian officials cited what they called “deception” from President Trump, pointing to “inconsistency with what is actually happening” during negotiations.
President Trump accused Iran of firing on ships in the strait in violation of the ceasefire agreement. He threatened to “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran” if Tehran refuses a deal.
General sentiment is that both countries are on the verge of a new round of escalation, with futures markets set to open within hours.
Bitcoin has faced sustained pressure from the US-Iran conflict since February 28. The pioneer crypto previously fell from above $100,000 when Iran first moved to close the strait earlier this year. Amid Sunday’s risk-off sentiment, the king of crypto fell below $75,000 for yet another time.
Bitcoin’s price was halted at its multi-month peak at over $78,000 on Friday, and the subsequent conflicting actions and statements from Iran and the US have led to another retracement to under $75,000 as of press time.
The latest set of blame-throwing came minutes ago, as reports emerged that Iran believes they are “facing deception” from US President Donald Trump due to “inconsistency with what is actually happening.”
Moreover, Iranian officials said they believe the two sides are “on the verge of a new round of escalation,” as reported by The Kobeissi Letter.
However, the US blockade remained in place, and Iran decided to close the Strait just a day later. Trump started to threaten once again, while also saying that both nations’ delegations will meet again in Pakistan for another round of peace talks. In contrast, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said there were no such plans.
Trump then alleged that there’s a “divide” in the Iranian government and threatened to “blow up” the entire country if the two nations fail to reach an agreement.
This rather escalating uncertainty, with just a few days left until the ceasefire deal ends, led to a weekend correction for BTC, as the asset just slipped below $75,000. It’s now down by almost $4,000 since the Friday peak.
However, more volatility is to be expected later this evening when the futures legacy markets open and tomorrow morning, as it has happened in previous instances following major weekend developments.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to steady itself after a shaky start to the week. After dipping briefly toward the key $70,000 support level on Sunday, BTC has since bounced back and is now trading above $72,000 on Monday.
However, the next move may depend less on internal crypto dynamics and more on the escalating geopolitical backdrop of tensions between the United States and Iran, and the events that unfold in the days ahead.
$100,000 Bitcoin By Year-End
In a new report, market analyst Sam Daodu argues that Bitcoin’s direction is closely tied to how the conflict unfolds. Rather than pointing to a single likely outcome, Daodu lays out three scenarios, each with a different implication for oil prices, investor sentiment, and ultimately BTC price action.
In Daodu’s bullish scenario, a full peace deal would shift the outlook for both geopolitics and commodities. He suggests oil prices would retreat back toward pre-war levels, roughly in the $65 to $70 per barrel range.
Daodu says that if that happens, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 by year-end, which would translate to a 39% price increase from current trading levels.
April 15 Agreement Expectations
The base case is more cautious and revolves around what could happen around April 15. Daodu’s view is that if the talks scheduled for that period lead to a new agreement, oil prices might drop below $95 again, similar to what happened after the first ceasefire was announced last week.
Daodu also points to a specific positioning factor: there are reportedly about $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 right now. If oil prices fall quickly and risk sentiment improves fast, those short positions could unwind, triggering a squeeze. That could help drive Bitcoin higher between $75,000 to $80,000.
Bear Path For BTC
The bearish scenario centers on the ceasefire failing—either because it breaks apart completely or because it expires without a workable outcome.
Daodu notes that the two-week ceasefire is already under strain. With talks having collapsed and a blockade being announced, the agreement is described as “hanging by a thread.”
If negotiations fail and oil prices rise above $110 to $120, Daodu says Bitcoin would likely lose the $70,000 support level. From there, the downside path could accelerate, with BTC potentially sliding toward $65,000. If the crisis drags on, he adds that prices could fall further toward $55,000 to $60,000.
Even with these three paths laid out, Daodu’s conclusion is that the base prediction is the most realistic outcome at the moment. In his assessment, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound until the next round of talks produces something tangible.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continued to hold near $68,000, a key long-term support level, this morning as traders waited for President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Iran.
The tension built after Trump said on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” as his 8 P.M. Eastern deadline for a deal with Iran approached.
The warning came alongside reports of strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, sharpening fears that the confrontation could move from deadline politics to a more disruptive energy shock.
These tensions have left the market suspended between a crypto structure that has so far resisted a deeper breakdown and a macro backdrop growing more difficult by the hour.
Throughout the trading day, Bitcoin has shown some optimism, with prices touching $69,000 before retreating to around $68,500 as traders struggle to decipher Trump’s latest threat that “a whole civilization will die tonight.”
Oil is the transmission engine
Oil has become the main channel through which the US-Iran confrontation is feeding into crypto markets.
Since the US-Iran conflict began, oil prices have soared above $100, thanks in large part to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping channel that typically carries about 20% of the world’s oil on a given day.
With Trump’s latest deadline approaching, US crude climbed above $116 a barrel, extending a rally that had already pushed prices toward multi-year highs.
The risks widened further after reports that Iran had threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a route that accounts for roughly 12% of global seaborne trade and has become even more important since the shutdown of Hormuz.
The Kobeissi Letter said that any disruption there could place another major shipping route under pressure and raise the prospect of oil reaching $150 a barrel.
That is where the market threat becomes more serious for Bitcoin.
Once crude moves into that range, the concern extends beyond war headlines or day-to-day swings in risk appetite. Sustained strength in energy prices can reinforce inflation fears, support the dollar, and reduce the room for central banks to ease policy.
Data from CryptoQuant showed the flagship digital asset’s recent rebound occurred while aggregate funding rates across exchanges remained negative.
Bitcoin Funding Rate (Source: CryptoQuant)
This suggests the move has not been driven by traders piling into leveraged bullish bets. Instead, short sellers are still paying to keep bearish positions open even as the price stabilizes and edges higher.
That is usually a healthier setup than a rally fueled by aggressive leverage.
When Bitcoin rises while funding stays negative, it suggests spot buyers are absorbing selling pressure rather than momentum traders chasing the market higher. A rebound built on leveraged longs can fade quickly when sentiment turns.
However, a rebound supported by real buying can keep moving even while the broader market remains skeptical.
Meanwhile, this leaves short sellers vulnerable. Bearish positions opened below current levels can become fuel for a sharper move higher if Bitcoin continues to recover and forced liquidations begin to build.
That dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin has not followed the geopolitical backdrop lower in a more decisive way. The market is still leaning bearish, but price action has not yet confirmed that view.
Still, that support has limits. If the recovery loses momentum before enough short positions are cleared out, the downside can reopen quickly because the market has less leveraged long support beneath it.
A narrow range is making the next move more fragile
At the same time, BTC is trading inside a structure that leaves little room for error.
Glassnode data showed the token in a tight negative gamma pocket between roughly $65,000 and $70,000, an area where dealer hedging can intensify short-term moves in either direction.
Bitcoin Market Positioning (Source: Glassnode)
According to the firm, resistance is building near $72,000, while support below current levels is thinner if momentum fades. The result is a market that can appear stable for stretches and then move abruptly once a catalyst arrives.
The trigger here is coming from Washington, not from within crypto. Traders are not positioning around an earnings release, a network upgrade, or ETF flows. Instead, they are positioning around a deadline that could move oil, shift inflation expectations, and reprice risk assets in the same session.
Markets are weighing another delay against a deeper shock
Part of the restraint in price action reflects pattern recognition.
QCP Capital said markets have spent weeks absorbing weekend escalation rhetoric followed by early-week de-escalation signals, leaving stocks broadly stable and crypto more resilient than the headlines alone would suggest.
The pattern has made traders less willing to fully price in each new threat. At the same time, it has not removed the risk. Each new strike, each new warning, and each new threat to energy infrastructure raises the cost of assuming that this episode will also end in another delay.
Trump has left room for the deadline to move again if talks make progress and something tangible emerges. At the same time, Iran appeared to have halted diplomatic discussions amid the latest threats. That has kept conviction low and volatility close to the surface.
For now, Bitcoin is holding its ground without escaping the pressure around it. Buyers have defended a major support area, and negative funding suggests bearish positioning has not produced the breakdown many expected.
But the market remains stuck in a tight range while oil surges and policy risk dominates trading. A softer turn from Washington could force short sellers to cover, lifting Bitcoin back toward $70,000 and then $72,000.
However, a deeper escalation would shift attention immediately back to inflation, financial conditions, and whether crypto can withstand a broader move out of risk.
Until then, Bitcoin remains tied to the next signal from the White House.
Bitcoin, once promoted by some investors as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, is behaving like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset at a time when energy prices are climbing, and macro stress is spreading.
This comes as the conflict between the United States and Iran deepens, with shock rippling through oil, the dollar, and broader financial conditions before landing in a crypto market that is already showing signs of fatigue.
That has reopened discussion of a far steeper downside path than the market had been willing to entertain only weeks ago.
Why this matters: This marks a shift in Bitcoin’s behavior under stress. Instead of attracting defensive flows amid geopolitical risk, it is reacting to tighter financial conditions, rising oil prices, and a stronger dollar. That changes how investors position around macro shocks and raises the likelihood of deeper drawdowns if liquidity continues to contract.
By signaling that US military operations could intensify over the next two to three weeks, without offering a clear timeline for an end to hostilities, the administration pushed investors back into a defensive stance.
The initial reaction showed up across equities, though the deeper signal came from energy.
US stocks fell intraday before paring losses by the close, with the S&P 500 down 0.23% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.39%. In Asia, the sell-off was sharper, with South Korea’s KOSPI dropping 4.2% and MSCI Emerging Asia falling 2.3%.
Oil moved more decisively. Data from Oilprices.com showed that West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 11.41% to $111.54 a barrel, its biggest absolute gain since 2020, while Brent rose 7.78% to $109.03.
The move followed US-Israeli strikes that began on Feb. 28 and Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
These developments have significant impacts on the crypto market as a sustained rise in crude directly feeds into inflation expectations, tightens financial conditions, and reduces the market’s tolerance for speculation.
With the dollar index up 0.48%, Treasury market spreads wider by 27%, and the VIX climbing toward 25, the broader macro picture is turning against risk assets that depend on abundant liquidity and steady investor appetite.
The Iran escalation may have accelerated the latest sell-off, but it did not create the market’s fragility. Bitcoin was already losing support before the geopolitical backdrop deteriorated.
CryptoQuant data show selling pressure has continued to outweigh institutional accumulation despite earlier support from spot exchange-traded funds and corporate buyers such as Strategy. The firm’s 30-day apparent demand growth stands at -63,000 BTC, indicating that fresh demand has not been strong enough to absorb supply.
Bitcoin Apparent Demand (Source: CryptoQuant)
The same pattern is visible across large holders. Whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted from accumulation into one of the sharpest distribution phases of the cycle. The one-year change in whale holdings has swung from an increase of about 200,000 BTC at the 2024 peak to a deficit of 188,000 BTC.
Mid-sized holders have also pulled back. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, often seen as an important layer of market support, have seen their holdings grow by only 429,000 BTC in the current market cycle, compared to about 1 million BTC in late 2025.
This weakness is especially clear in the United States. Coinbase Premium, a common gauge of US spot demand, has remained negative even as Bitcoin fell into the $65,000 to $70,000 range. That suggests American buyers, both retail and institutional, have not returned in enough size to stabilize the market.
Essentially, those figures help to describe a market that had already begun to lose resilience before war headlines intensified.
In calmer markets, that kind of positioning can help maintain price levels. However, it becomes a vulnerability in a macro shock as contracts that might otherwise have rolled forward are more likely to be cut, either by choice or through forced liquidation.
That is how orderly weakness turns into a cascade. Prices fall, leveraged longs are forced out, more selling follows, and the market starts moving on positioning stress rather than conviction.
Analysts at Bitunix told CryptoSlate that Bitcoin remains stuck in a passive pricing regime, with resistance around $69,400 still uncleared and downside liquidity continuing to build near $65,500. In a more hostile macro setting, that lower band could become the trigger point for a broader liquidation wave.
Options markets are sending a similarly cautious message. Greeks.live data show 28,000 BTC contracts expired on April 3 with a put-call ratio of 0.54 and a max pain point at $68,000, representing $1.8 billion in notional value.
According to the firm:
“Bitcoin performed poorly in both price and market sentiment during the first quarter of this year, and the first week of the second quarter has also been weak. Rebuilding confidence may require time and capital support; currently, all indicators point to bear market conditions.”
Why $10,000 is still a tail risk
Bitunix has described the current environment as a triple-constraint regime shaped by elevated inflation expectations, policy limits, and widening geopolitical risk.
That framework helps explain why crypto is reacting so sharply, as liquidity cannot ease much if oil stays high. At the same time, market confidence cannot recover easily if war risk continues to rise, speculative positions become harder to defend as the dollar strengthens, and volatility rises across asset classes.
In a moderate scenario, where the conflict remains contained but inflation stays elevated, unwinding leveraged futures could drag Bitcoin from around $70,000 to $50,000, within a roughly 25% to 30% correction.
Meanwhile, a harsher bear-case path would emerge if ETF outflows accelerate, spot demand remains weak, and the dollar continues to tighten financial conditions. In that setting, Bitcoin could slide into the $20,000 to $30,000 range, erasing 60% to 70% of its value from recent levels.
Bitcoin recovers toward resistance as liquidation pressure subsides.
Possible, but dependent on macro stabilization.
Moderate downside
Around $50,000
Conflict remains contained, but inflation stays elevated and leveraged futures positions unwind.
Roughly 25% to 30% correction from the recent $70,000 area.
Plausible downside case.
Mid-term bear case
$20,000 to $30,000
ETF outflows accelerate, spot demand remains weak, and the U.S. dollar continues to tighten financial conditions.
Bitcoin enters a deeper contraction, wiping out 60% to 70% from recent levels.
More severe, but still within historical drawdown patterns.
Tail-risk black swan
Around $10,000
Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or wider regional war sends oil to $150 to $200 a barrel and triggers a collapse in global liquidity.
Bitcoin suffers an extreme drawdown as speculative capital exits the market.
Tail risk, not the base case.
The move to $10,000 sits beyond that as a black swan outcome. It would likely require a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a wider regional war severe enough to push oil toward $150 to $200 a barrel, drive a much sharper tightening in global liquidity, and knock equities down by more than 30%.
Under those conditions, speculative capital across crypto would shrink dramatically, leaving Bitcoin exposed to the kind of 80% drawdown seen in earlier cycle washouts.
For now, the immediate takeaway is that Bitcoin is not acting as a safe haven amid war. Instead, it is trading like a highly sensitive risk asset whose direction still depends on liquidity, leverage, and the market’s willingness to absorb macro shock.
