Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to steady itself after a shaky start to the week. After dipping briefly toward the key $70,000 support level on Sunday, BTC has since bounced back and is now trading above $72,000 on Monday.
However, the next move may depend less on internal crypto dynamics and more on the escalating geopolitical backdrop of tensions between the United States and Iran, and the events that unfold in the days ahead.
$100,000 Bitcoin By Year-End
In a new report, market analyst Sam Daodu argues that Bitcoin’s direction is closely tied to how the conflict unfolds. Rather than pointing to a single likely outcome, Daodu lays out three scenarios, each with a different implication for oil prices, investor sentiment, and ultimately BTC price action.
In Daodu’s bullish scenario, a full peace deal would shift the outlook for both geopolitics and commodities. He suggests oil prices would retreat back toward pre-war levels, roughly in the $65 to $70 per barrel range.
Daodu says that if that happens, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 by year-end, which would translate to a 39% price increase from current trading levels.
April 15 Agreement Expectations
The base case is more cautious and revolves around what could happen around April 15. Daodu’s view is that if the talks scheduled for that period lead to a new agreement, oil prices might drop below $95 again, similar to what happened after the first ceasefire was announced last week.
Daodu also points to a specific positioning factor: there are reportedly about $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 right now. If oil prices fall quickly and risk sentiment improves fast, those short positions could unwind, triggering a squeeze. That could help drive Bitcoin higher between $75,000 to $80,000.
Bear Path For BTC
The bearish scenario centers on the ceasefire failing—either because it breaks apart completely or because it expires without a workable outcome.
Daodu notes that the two-week ceasefire is already under strain. With talks having collapsed and a blockade being announced, the agreement is described as “hanging by a thread.”
If negotiations fail and oil prices rise above $110 to $120, Daodu says Bitcoin would likely lose the $70,000 support level. From there, the downside path could accelerate, with BTC potentially sliding toward $65,000. If the crisis drags on, he adds that prices could fall further toward $55,000 to $60,000.
Even with these three paths laid out, Daodu’s conclusion is that the base prediction is the most realistic outcome at the moment. In his assessment, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound until the next round of talks produces something tangible.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable in 2026? Here’s the Honest Answer | Crypto Coin Show
Bitcoin Mining · Economics
Is Bitcoin Mining Still Profitable in 2026?
The honest answer depends on who you are, what you’re running, and what you’re paying for power. Here’s how to actually work it out.
By Ashton AddisonApril 2026Crypto Coin Show
~$0.045
Break-even power cost / kWh
~50%
Mining revenue is energy cost
−45%
Hashprice vs. pre-halving peak
+3%
NiceHash premium over FPPS
Let’s skip the optimism and give you the real answer: Bitcoin mining in 2026 is profitable for some people and a money-losing grind for others — and the gap between those two outcomes comes down to a handful of variables most guides don’t bother to explain clearly.
The 2024 halving cut the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin’s price hasn’t compensated fully. Network difficulty has kept climbing. The miners who were marginal at $90,000 are now operating at a loss or have shut down entirely. Those with access to sub-$0.04/kWh power and modern hardware are still making money. Everyone else is somewhere in between, doing math that changes every time the price ticks up or down.
This article is for the people doing that math — or thinking about starting.
THE THREE NUMBERS THAT DECIDE EVERYTHING
Bitcoin mining profitability isn’t mysterious. It collapses to three inputs: your hashrate (how much compute you have), your power cost (what you pay per kilowatt-hour), and the hashprice (the current market rate for that compute). Get these right and the rest is arithmetic.
The problem is that two of those three numbers move constantly. Hashprice shifts daily with Bitcoin’s spot price, network difficulty, and transaction fee volume. Power costs are fixed for operators with contracts but highly variable for anyone paying retail electricity rates. Your hashrate is the only number you fully control — and even that degrades as better hardware hits the market.
Hashprice: the number most people ignore
Most conversations about mining profitability focus on Bitcoin’s price. That’s the wrong frame. What actually determines your revenue is hashprice — the dollar value earned per unit of hashrate per day, typically measured in $/TH/day. Hashprice is a function of Bitcoin’s price, yes, but also of total network hashrate and current transaction fees.
You can have Bitcoin at $80,000 and a lower hashprice than you had at $60,000 if the network has grown significantly more competitive in the interim. This is exactly what happened in the months following the 2024 halving: price held, but difficulty kept rising, compressing hashprice to levels that made many operations uneconomical.
“A lot of market participants were on the edge of profitability already in the $90,000 range. So a lot of those operations are shut down or operating at minimum scale.”
— Filip Primec, Director of NiceHash AG
WHO IS ACTUALLY PROFITABLE RIGHT NOW
The honest breakdown in 2026 looks like this. There are four distinct categories of miners, and they are having very different experiences.
✓ Profitable
Large-scale industrial operators
Long-term power contracts at $0.02–0.04/kWh, latest-gen ASICs, and treasury strategies that hedge against price volatility. These operations are still making money — but margins are thinner than 2021–2023.
✓ Profitable
Stranded or subsidized energy users
Operators co-located with cheap renewable generation — hydro, flared gas, solar — who effectively pay near-zero marginal cost for power. Their break-even is almost anywhere above $0.
~ Marginal
Mid-tier home and small farm miners
Running S19 Pro or S21 hardware on $0.06–0.10/kWh power. Profitable when Bitcoin is above ~$75,000. Currently break-even or slightly negative. Holding on for higher prices.
✗ Losing Money
Retail electricity miners
Anyone paying $0.12+/kWh — typical residential rates in the US, Europe, or Australia. At current hashprice levels, the electricity bill exceeds Bitcoin earned on almost any consumer hardware.
The dividing line runs almost entirely through power cost. Hardware matters — a newer S21 or M60 consumes less power per terahash than an S17 — but power cost has the steeper slope. Shaving $0.02/kWh off your electricity rate does more for profitability than upgrading hardware in most scenarios.
THE HALVING’S REAL EFFECT
Every four years, the Bitcoin protocol cuts the block subsidy in half. The logic behind this is foundational to Bitcoin’s design: predictable, disinflationary issuance toward a fixed 21 million supply cap. The economic effect on miners is more complicated than the headline number suggests.
The 2024 halving took block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. If nothing else changed, that would be a 50% revenue cut overnight. In practice, two things were supposed to compensate: a rising Bitcoin price (driven by post-halving supply shock and new ETF demand) and rising transaction fee revenue (driven by Ordinals, Runes, and overall on-chain activity).
The price rose — but not enough to fully compensate, and not before a significant period of margin compression. Transaction fees spiked during the halving week itself and then normalized. Network hashrate continued climbing through 2024 and into 2025, driven by machines ordered during the bull market that came online after the cut. The net result: hashprice spent most of 2025 well below pre-halving levels.
The Halving Math
At $80,000 BTC and current difficulty: a miner running 100 TH/s of modern hardware earns roughly $8–12/day in BTC before electricity costs. Running at 3,000W, that’s $7.20/day at $0.10/kWh — leaving $0.80–$4.80 gross margin before hardware amortization. At $0.05/kWh, that margin improves to $4.40–$8.40. This is why power cost is everything.
THE CASE FOR MINING ANYWAY
The profitability calculation above treats mining as a pure income-generating activity. For a significant portion of miners, that’s not the right frame — and understanding why reveals something important about who actually keeps the Bitcoin network running.
Mining as cost-basis acquisition
If you intend to hold Bitcoin long-term, mining it is an alternative to buying it on an exchange. The question isn’t “am I making money mining?” — it’s “is my all-in cost per BTC lower through mining than through buying?” For miners with access to cheap power, the answer is often yes, even in compressed-margin environments.
Conviction-driven miners don’t quit in bear markets
The miners who have stayed in through every cycle are typically those who mine because they believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value, not because the current hashprice justifies it on a quarterly P&L. This is not irrational — it reflects a different time horizon and a different risk tolerance. Bitcoin was built to reward low time preference, as the saying goes.
⚡
The EasyMining case: A solo miner on NiceHash’s EasyMining product purchased a ~$70 hashrate package and found Block #939527, earning over $200,000 in BTC. The probability was extremely low. The outcome was real. On-demand hashrate marketplaces make this kind of participation possible without hardware ownership — changing the risk profile entirely for small-scale participants.
MINING WITHOUT HARDWARE: THE MARKETPLACE OPTION
One development that has meaningfully changed the accessibility calculation is the maturation of hashrate marketplaces — most prominently NiceHash. These platforms let buyers purchase raw hashrate on-demand, directing it to a pool of their choosing, without ever owning or operating hardware.
The economics are different from hardware ownership in important ways. There’s no capital locked in depreciating equipment. There’s no long-term power contract. You’re not exposed to the ASIC obsolescence cycle. You pay a small premium for that flexibility — buyers on NiceHash are currently paying roughly 3% above the hashprice benchmark — but you also get the ability to enter and exit positions as conditions change.
For someone curious about mining, wanting to experiment with pool strategies, or looking to occasionally rent large amounts of hashrate for a solo mining attempt, this is a fundamentally different risk profile than buying an ASIC. The learning curve exists — understanding pool mechanics, RTPPS vs FPPS payout structures, and how to read marketplace pricing takes time — but the financial exposure starts at around $100.
HOW TO EVALUATE IF MINING MAKES SENSE FOR YOU
Before running any hardware or placing any marketplace order, work through this framework honestly.
Question
Threshold
Verdict
What’s my electricity cost?
Under $0.05/kWh
Favorable
What’s my electricity cost?
$0.05–0.09/kWh
Marginal
What’s my electricity cost?
Over $0.10/kWh
Unfavorable
Am I buying hardware?
Latest-gen ASIC (S21, M60+)
Competitive
Am I buying hardware?
Previous-gen (S19, M30)
Marginal
Time horizon?
Holding mined BTC 2+ years
Changes the math
Time horizon?
Need immediate fiat return
Risky
Want to try without hardware?
NiceHash marketplace from ~$100
Low barrier
The honest answer to “is it profitable?” is: it depends on your power cost more than anything else, and your time horizon more than your hardware. Someone mining with cheap power and a multi-year hold thesis is in a different business than someone paying retail electricity and hoping to flip BTC for profit this quarter.
Know which one you are before you spend money on hardware or hashrate. The math will tell you the rest.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Mining profitability figures are estimates based on publicly available hashprice data as of April 2026 and will vary based on hardware, power costs, and market conditions.
Bitcoin surged above the $72,000 level as easing geopolitical tensions sparked a wave of optimism across global markets. The move triggered a sharp rally, clearing key liquidity levels and pushing BTC higher in a short period, with momentum largely driven by headline sentiment rather than underlying structural strength.
Will CPI Confirm The Breakout Or Trigger Reversal?
Bitcoin reclaimed the $72,000 level following headlines that Israel has agreed to talks with Lebanon, triggering a sharp move higher and sweeping a major liquidity cluster sitting above recent highs. Crypto trader Max Trades has stated on X that this move pushed BTC up roughly 7% over the past three days, and was largely driven by the news.
However, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data around the corner, the market is heading straight into a major volatility event. Max pointed out that pumps like this into key events occurring right before high-impact macro releases rarely tend to hold.
An investor known as Columbus on X has also noted that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of weakness despite recent attempts to push higher. Using Hyblocks heatmaps, the data reveal that the price action remains heavy with no real acceptance above the $72,000 supply zone.
Thus, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside until BTC can sustain acceptance back above the $72,000 zone. On the downside, liquidity pools around $68,000 to 69,000 remain the primary target for continuation.
What A Drop In Profit Supply Signals For The Market
The current state of the Bitcoin market is revealing a deeper shift under the surface. A verified author for CryptoQuant Darkfost highlighted that the BTC profit supply has dropped to levels typically associated with bear market conditions. Only about 59% of the BTC total supply remains in profit, a level close to what was observed during the last bear market.
Currently, nearly 1 BTC out of every 2 is being held at a loss. Historically, the average bull sits at around 75% of supply in profit, which places the market well below its typical levels. Darkfost explained that while this may seem counterintuitive, the market needs investors in profit to sustain a positive momentum.
According to the data, the 50% level appears to be a key threshold. Although the market hasn’t reached that level yet, the past cycles show that bear market bottoms often form around this area.
This trend is crucial as it will help assess when losses of profits become significant across the market. Thus, the strategy remains consistent accumulation when losses reach extreme levels, allowing investors to position ahead of the majority.
On the flip side, when profit supply approaches 100%, it often signals overheated conditions where reduced exposure is more favorable. Despite the pressure, the current environment appears more conducive to accumulation than to selling.
Bitcoin Breaks $72K on Iran Ceasefire — And Tonight Is Your Last Chance to Win Vegas
Two new interviews: Bitcoin-backed 10% yield with Buck, and perps copy trading on Solana with OdinBot. The giveaway closes at midnight.
Ashton Addison · CEO, Crypto Coin Show
Wednesday, April 8, 2026
Ashton’s Take
Bitcoin just broke $72,000, its highest level since March 26. The catalyst: President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran over social media, and markets moved fast. Ethereum followed, clearing $2,200 for the first time since March 18. The global crypto market cap hit $2.52 trillion, up 4.3% in 24 hours.
This is a ceasefire, not a resolution. The $76,000 resistance hasn’t broken yet. Technicals still show a bearish pennant and Bitcoin remains below all major moving averages. Iran is reportedly considering charging oil tankers Bitcoin tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That is a headline that can reverse fast.
The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 17, still in Extreme Fear territory despite today’s move. April has averaged +12.4% returns since 2013. The worst Q1s have consistently preceded the strongest recoveries. Confirmation still needs to come from price, not just the ceasefire headline.
Watch the $76K level. That’s the line.
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This Week on CCS Interviews
Interview #1
How Buck Pays 10% APY Backed by Bitcoin — Without Bitcoin’s Volatility
Dan Hillery, Head of Treasury · Buck
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Interview #2
Perps Copy Trading on Solana — OdinBot Explains How
Loki, Founder · OdinBot
Most perps traders blow up accounts because they’re guessing. OdinBot is building the infrastructure to let you skip the guesswork and automatically copy the traders who are actually winning.
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Market in 30 Seconds
Bitcoin / TetherUS · 4H · Binance · Signals powered by EngineeringRobo AI
Bitcoin
$72K
~$71,500–72,000
Ethereum
$2,200+
Highest since Mar 18
Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
Market Cap
$2.52T
+4.3% 24h
Bitcoin surged past $70K for the first time since March 26, driven by Trump’s two-week US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Total market cap reached $2.52T on $123B in 24-hour volume. BTC dominance sits at 56.8%. Despite the move, confirmation still hasn’t come. Bitcoin remains below all major moving averages and the bearish pennant is still technically in play. Resistance at $76K is the key level. A clean 4H close above that with volume changes the picture. Until then, this is a relief rally in an uncertain macro environment, not a trend reversal.
Ethereum cleared $2,200 for the first time since March 18, its first meaningful level of strength in months. Altcoins followed the bounce broadly, but volume is thin across the board and most names remain well below their early 2026 highs. The altcoin market needs BTC to clear and hold $76K before any of these moves carry structural weight.
The key catalyst is still ahead: CLARITY Act roundtable April 16, and the Iran ceasefire holding over the next two weeks. Watch both.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned an Iran war could drive inflation higher and push financial markets further down
Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased 4,871 Bitcoin worth $330 million during mid-week volatility, near the local low
Bitcoin fell under $68,000 after Iran cut off all direct diplomatic communications with the US
Morgan Stanley said it no longer expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen this month
US government projected Middle East oil production would drop by 9 million barrels per day
US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz — Bitcoin reclaimed $71,000 within minutes
$160 million in crypto shorts were liquidated following the ceasefire announcement
US oil prices crashed over 15% on the ceasefire news
Iran announced tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz would be charged in Bitcoin
Trump floated the idea of a US-Iran joint venture to charge tolls in the Strait together
Fidelity launched the Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD), a yield-bearing stablecoin targeting corporate treasurers and 401k plans
UBS and five major Swiss banks announced a partnership to test a Swiss franc crypto stablecoin
Polymarket announced a 1:1 USDC-backed collateral token
JPMorgan projected the tokenized real-world assets market could grow to $13 trillion by 2030
Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF began trading
France and South Korea’s central banks held joint talks on the future of crypto
Americans lost a record $11.36 billion to crypto-related fraud in 2025, up 22% from the prior year
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Adam Back has once again denied claims that he is the mysterious Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
The latest denial comes after an investigation by New York Times reporter John Carreyrou pointed to him as the most likely candidate.
Back Pushes Back
Following the NYT’s publishing of Carreyrou’s piece, Back took to X to reject its conclusion.
“I’m not Satoshi,” he said flatly.
The Blockstream founder also explained that he had been one of the most active posters on the Cypherpunks mailing list, loudly interested in electronic cash and cryptographic privacy from around 1992 onwards.
Two things are important here: first, his focus on e-cash and online privacy meant that people looking into Satoshi’s true identity would have found many Bitcoin-like elements in his past work; and second, the fact that he posted on the lists so often left a big enough paper trail that those same researchers would keep finding his fingerprints.
According to him, his posting volume meant that he would have likely weighed in on any given thread more than someone else with identical interests but who posted twenty times less.
On the question of who Satoshi actually is, Back reiterated that he doesn’t know and that, for him, that is the right state of affairs.
“I think it is good for bitcoin that this is the case,” he wrote, “as it helps bitcoin be viewed a new asset class, the mathematically scarce digital commodity.”
What the Investigation Claims
Carreyrou’s argument runs through several layers. Back is British, was active on the Cypherpunks mailing list in the 1990s, and invented Hashcash, the proof-of-work system Satoshi cited in the Bitcoin white paper.
The journalist also claimed to have matched more than a hundred words and phrases from Satoshi’s writings to Back’s archived mailing list posts.
In addition, he drew a line between Satoshi’s habit of embedding political messages in Bitcoin’s design and a 2002 post in which Back, apparently out of curiosity, asked about the 1933 U.S. gold seizure. This was the same event Satoshi encoded into Bitcoin as a statement about government monetary overreach.
Carreyrou also pointed out that Back had a background in distributed computing and C++, the language used to write BTC’s original code, which fitted Satoshi’s known profile.
However, in a post on X responding to a user, he acknowledged that such connections did not necessarily add up to certainty.
“The only true smoking gun is cryptographic proof and only Adam can provide that,” he wrote.
Back’s emails with Satoshi, made public during the London fraud trial of Craig Wright, the Australian entrepreneur ruled not to be Satoshi by a UK judge in 2024, show Satoshi reaching out to Back in August 2008 to check a citation before publishing his white paper.
Most people would read those emails as evidence that Back and Satoshi were two different people. However, Carreyrou’s counter is that Back could have sent them to himself as cover. That argument has not gone over well.
Bitcoin continued to hold near $68,000, a key long-term support level, this morning as traders waited for President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Iran.
The tension built after Trump said on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” as his 8 P.M. Eastern deadline for a deal with Iran approached.
The warning came alongside reports of strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, sharpening fears that the confrontation could move from deadline politics to a more disruptive energy shock.
These tensions have left the market suspended between a crypto structure that has so far resisted a deeper breakdown and a macro backdrop growing more difficult by the hour.
Throughout the trading day, Bitcoin has shown some optimism, with prices touching $69,000 before retreating to around $68,500 as traders struggle to decipher Trump’s latest threat that “a whole civilization will die tonight.”
Oil is the transmission engine
Oil has become the main channel through which the US-Iran confrontation is feeding into crypto markets.
Since the US-Iran conflict began, oil prices have soared above $100, thanks in large part to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping channel that typically carries about 20% of the world’s oil on a given day.
With Trump’s latest deadline approaching, US crude climbed above $116 a barrel, extending a rally that had already pushed prices toward multi-year highs.
The risks widened further after reports that Iran had threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a route that accounts for roughly 12% of global seaborne trade and has become even more important since the shutdown of Hormuz.
The Kobeissi Letter said that any disruption there could place another major shipping route under pressure and raise the prospect of oil reaching $150 a barrel.
That is where the market threat becomes more serious for Bitcoin.
Once crude moves into that range, the concern extends beyond war headlines or day-to-day swings in risk appetite. Sustained strength in energy prices can reinforce inflation fears, support the dollar, and reduce the room for central banks to ease policy.
Data from CryptoQuant showed the flagship digital asset’s recent rebound occurred while aggregate funding rates across exchanges remained negative.
Bitcoin Funding Rate (Source: CryptoQuant)
This suggests the move has not been driven by traders piling into leveraged bullish bets. Instead, short sellers are still paying to keep bearish positions open even as the price stabilizes and edges higher.
That is usually a healthier setup than a rally fueled by aggressive leverage.
When Bitcoin rises while funding stays negative, it suggests spot buyers are absorbing selling pressure rather than momentum traders chasing the market higher. A rebound built on leveraged longs can fade quickly when sentiment turns.
However, a rebound supported by real buying can keep moving even while the broader market remains skeptical.
Meanwhile, this leaves short sellers vulnerable. Bearish positions opened below current levels can become fuel for a sharper move higher if Bitcoin continues to recover and forced liquidations begin to build.
That dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin has not followed the geopolitical backdrop lower in a more decisive way. The market is still leaning bearish, but price action has not yet confirmed that view.
Still, that support has limits. If the recovery loses momentum before enough short positions are cleared out, the downside can reopen quickly because the market has less leveraged long support beneath it.
A narrow range is making the next move more fragile
At the same time, BTC is trading inside a structure that leaves little room for error.
Glassnode data showed the token in a tight negative gamma pocket between roughly $65,000 and $70,000, an area where dealer hedging can intensify short-term moves in either direction.
Bitcoin Market Positioning (Source: Glassnode)
According to the firm, resistance is building near $72,000, while support below current levels is thinner if momentum fades. The result is a market that can appear stable for stretches and then move abruptly once a catalyst arrives.
The trigger here is coming from Washington, not from within crypto. Traders are not positioning around an earnings release, a network upgrade, or ETF flows. Instead, they are positioning around a deadline that could move oil, shift inflation expectations, and reprice risk assets in the same session.
Markets are weighing another delay against a deeper shock
Part of the restraint in price action reflects pattern recognition.
QCP Capital said markets have spent weeks absorbing weekend escalation rhetoric followed by early-week de-escalation signals, leaving stocks broadly stable and crypto more resilient than the headlines alone would suggest.
The pattern has made traders less willing to fully price in each new threat. At the same time, it has not removed the risk. Each new strike, each new warning, and each new threat to energy infrastructure raises the cost of assuming that this episode will also end in another delay.
Trump has left room for the deadline to move again if talks make progress and something tangible emerges. At the same time, Iran appeared to have halted diplomatic discussions amid the latest threats. That has kept conviction low and volatility close to the surface.
For now, Bitcoin is holding its ground without escaping the pressure around it. Buyers have defended a major support area, and negative funding suggests bearish positioning has not produced the breakdown many expected.
But the market remains stuck in a tight range while oil surges and policy risk dominates trading. A softer turn from Washington could force short sellers to cover, lifting Bitcoin back toward $70,000 and then $72,000.
However, a deeper escalation would shift attention immediately back to inflation, financial conditions, and whether crypto can withstand a broader move out of risk.
Until then, Bitcoin remains tied to the next signal from the White House.
The International Monetary Fund says tariffs don’t meaningfully fix trade gaps. Their impact is small and inconsistent.
At the same time, global current account imbalances are widening again. That points to rising economic strain between countries. For crypto, this matters. When trade tensions rise and policy tools fall short, capital often moves toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.
The IMF’s Key Findings
In a new policy paper, IMF researchers Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Christian Mumssen analyze the drivers of global imbalances.
Their conclusion is clear: traditional macroeconomic policies remain the dominant lever for addressing current account imbalances. Tariffs and industrial policies, by contrast, yield limited, and often counterproductive, results.
According to the IMF, tariffs only improve current accounts in rare circumstances, specifically when they are temporary. However, most tariffs are perceived as permanent or trigger retaliation.
As a result, people do not adjust their saving behavior, and the current account remains largely unchanged.
The paper warns that widening imbalances “have often preceded financial crises or abrupt reversals of capital flows.”
Fun Fact: The IMF notes that an escalation of tariffs does little to change current account positions but significantly lowers output across all regions. Everybody loses!
Global imbalances are widening again, raising risks for economic growth and financial stability. Tariffs and narrow industrial policies rarely help, as our latest blog details. Rebalancing starts at home, with sound macroeconomic policies. https://t.co/UfYUGEjUVypic.twitter.com/iPCfZAShla
The IMF’s analysis paints a picture of structural instability. Consequently, several crypto-relevant dynamics emerge:
Dollar Pressure: The US is running large fiscal deficits with large consumer spending. A weakening fiscal position could put long-term pressure on dollar confidence, potentially benefiting alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.
Stablecoin Demand: As global trade tensions persist and underlying imbalances persist, businesses may increasingly turn to stablecoins for cross-border transactions. USD-pegged stablecoins offer dollar exposure without a direct dependency on the banking system.
Safe Haven Narrative: The IMF explicitly warns of potential financial crises. Historically, such warnings have preceded periods where investors seek uncorrelated assets.
Outlook
The IMF calls for “synchronized adjustment,” where countries move together. However, such coordination has proven elusive. In the absence of coordinated action, market participants will seek their own solutions.
The IMF’s warning is clear: global imbalances are widening, tariffs won’t fix them, and disorderly adjustment could be “exceptionally costly.”
For crypto markets, this macro backdrop creates both risks and opportunities. The structural case for crypto as an alternative financial layer grows stronger as traditional policy tools fail to deliver.
It’s Friday, and it’s Easter weekend. The jobs report just dropped — 228,000 jobs added in March against a 140,000 estimate. Strong number. That pushes rate cut expectations further out, which is a near-term headwind for risk assets. Bitcoin is at $66,873, still inside the descending wedge. No breakout yet.
This isn’t a normal weekend either. Easter means thinner liquidity than usual — fewer traders, fewer market makers, faster moves on less volume. And Trump has a habit of dropping Iran headlines after US markets close. If that happens this weekend, crypto will feel it immediately with no cushion. The range of outcomes is genuinely wide: sideways drift, or a 5% move in either direction before Monday morning. Position accordingly — don’t force a trade into a thin market.
The CLARITY Act is still moving. Institutional interest hasn’t reversed. Fear & Greed recovered from 8. None of that changed today. Watch the Monday open for the first real signal — US markets are closed today (Good Friday) but reopen Monday.
⏰ Giveaway deadline: Wednesday, April 9
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Deadline: Wednesday, April 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST · Winners announced Friday, April 11
This Week on CCS
How to protect governance and verify identity onchain — without giving up your data
Shady El Damaty · Co-Founder, Human.Tech
Most identity solutions ask you to hand over your data to prove you’re human. Human.Tech built a different model — privacy-preserving proof-of-humanity using zero-knowledge proofs and client-side computation. Shady breaks down how the Human Network secures 2.6M+ cryptographic keys backed by $3B+ in restaked ETH, how 43M+ credentials have been issued across protocols like Optimism and Lido, and why the right framing is keys + self-custody rather than IDs.
Bitcoin is still compressing inside the descending wedge with no breakout yet. The weekly and daily are both bearish, the 3H is neutral, and the 45M is starting to turn bullish — which tells you short-term buyers are trying, but the bigger trend hasn’t confirmed anything. RSI sitting at 46 with Smart Money OUT means there’s no real conviction in either direction right now. The one thing worth watching is volatility at 4.48% — heading into a thin Easter weekend, that’s a setup for fast moves on relatively little volume.
Today’s jobs print (228K vs. 140K estimated) adds another layer of uncertainty. Strong employment pushes rate cut expectations further out and removes a near-term catalyst for risk assets. That doesn’t kill the bull case, but it does mean we need actual price confirmation, not just narrative, before the wedge resolves higher.
What I’m Watching
A 4H close above the descending trendline with volume is the signal — that opens the path to $75,714. On the downside, lose $67,183 and $63,725 comes back into play. The Monday open will be the first real read after the holiday weekend.
Support
$67,183 → $63,725
Resistance
$75,714 → $76,000
Market Analysis — Ethereum 4H
Price
$2,051.72
Volatility
2.01%
RSI
45.8 Neutral
Smart Money
OUT
ETH is tracking weaker than Bitcoin right now, which is worth noting. The weekly is bearish, the daily is neutral, and the 3H has flipped bearish — the AI flagged a take-profit near the recent local high and price has since pulled back to $2,051, sitting just a few dollars above the $2,047 support level. Volatility at 2.01% is notably compressed compared to Bitcoin’s 4.48%, which typically signals one of two things: either a quiet weekend where nothing much happens, or a sharp move the moment something breaks.
The Glamsterdam hard fork in June — which bumps the gas limit from 60M to 200M — is a building narrative that institutional buyers are starting to pay attention to. But that’s a medium-term story. Right now, ETH under-performing BTC heading into a low-volume Easter weekend is not a setup for aggressive positioning.
What I’m Watching
Hold above $2,047 and the structure stays intact heading into next week. Lose that level and $1,997 comes into focus. A clean 4H close above $2,082 would be the re-engagement signal, with $2,419 as the next meaningful target.
Support
$2,047 → $1,997
Target
$2,082 → $2,419
Range High
$2,715
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📺 Missed Tuesday’s edition?Read it here → — Bitcoin in the wedge, Fear & Greed at 8, Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley ETF, and the full giveaway details.
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Midnight network goes live — the first blockchain built with privacy as the default. Charles Hoskinson’s Midnight uses ZK proofs and a hybrid ledger for compliant, privacy-preserving apps. 4B+ tokens claimed, $1B+ market cap at launch. Google Cloud and MoneyGram are launch partners. Read our full breakdown →
⭐⭐⭐
Token Metrics reinvents itself as an AI market desk. Ian Balina’s platform now runs 50+ data feeds through an automated intelligence engine — Polymarket integration, smart money scoring, free daily brief. Read the CCS exclusive →
⭐⭐⭐
CLARITY Act at 80–90% odds of passing by end of April. Ripple’s Garlinghouse and JPMorgan both called it a positive catalyst. Could end regulation-by-enforcement and open the altcoin ETF pipeline. Watch Senate Banking for markup timing.
⭐⭐⭐
Franklin Templeton launches Franklin Crypto via 250 Digital acquisition. The $1.5T manager is building an active institutional crypto unit, with part of the deal settled in BENJI tokens. Closes Q2 2026.
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Jobs report — 228K vs. 140K estimated. Rate cuts pushed further out. Near-term headwind for risk assets. Watch Monday equity open.
Charles Schwab ($12T) to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading soon. Millions of brokerage accounts about to get direct crypto access.
Coinbase gains conditional approval for a US national trust company charter. A federal-level milestone putting Coinbase alongside legacy financial institutions.
IMF: “Tokenization is reshaping regulated finance.” When the IMF puts it in writing, it’s no longer a fringe thesis.
Robinhood CEO: “Markets closing at the end of the day is a legacy design choice.” Called tokenization the infrastructure for 24/7 markets. Robinhood Banking crossed $1B in deposits from 65,000 customers. Full breakdown →
Drift Protocol drained of $285M — one of 2026’s biggest DeFi hacks. If your crypto is on an exchange or hot wallet, it’s exposed. Full breakdown → · Find the right Trezor →
CoinShares to list on Nasdaq via $1.2B SPAC. Joins Circle, BitGo, Bullish, and Gemini in the infrastructure IPO wave.
US unemployment 4.3%, below expectations — paired with the jobs print, confirms a strong labor market and less Fed pressure to cut.
Easter weekend. Thin markets. Iran wildcard. Know your levels, don’t chase, and know that sometimes no trade is a trade.
The infrastructure buildout hasn’t stopped. The legislation is moving faster than most people realize. The Fear & Greed Index was at 8 earlier this week — that number doesn’t stay there long. If you’ve been waiting for a moment that looks obvious in hindsight, you’re probably in it right now. It just doesn’t feel like it yet because it never does.
Stay patient this weekend. Let the noise settle. Monday open will tell us more than anything happening between now and then.
Bitcoin, once promoted by some investors as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, is behaving like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset at a time when energy prices are climbing, and macro stress is spreading.
This comes as the conflict between the United States and Iran deepens, with shock rippling through oil, the dollar, and broader financial conditions before landing in a crypto market that is already showing signs of fatigue.
That has reopened discussion of a far steeper downside path than the market had been willing to entertain only weeks ago.
Why this matters: This marks a shift in Bitcoin’s behavior under stress. Instead of attracting defensive flows amid geopolitical risk, it is reacting to tighter financial conditions, rising oil prices, and a stronger dollar. That changes how investors position around macro shocks and raises the likelihood of deeper drawdowns if liquidity continues to contract.
By signaling that US military operations could intensify over the next two to three weeks, without offering a clear timeline for an end to hostilities, the administration pushed investors back into a defensive stance.
The initial reaction showed up across equities, though the deeper signal came from energy.
US stocks fell intraday before paring losses by the close, with the S&P 500 down 0.23% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.39%. In Asia, the sell-off was sharper, with South Korea’s KOSPI dropping 4.2% and MSCI Emerging Asia falling 2.3%.
Oil moved more decisively. Data from Oilprices.com showed that West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 11.41% to $111.54 a barrel, its biggest absolute gain since 2020, while Brent rose 7.78% to $109.03.
The move followed US-Israeli strikes that began on Feb. 28 and Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
These developments have significant impacts on the crypto market as a sustained rise in crude directly feeds into inflation expectations, tightens financial conditions, and reduces the market’s tolerance for speculation.
With the dollar index up 0.48%, Treasury market spreads wider by 27%, and the VIX climbing toward 25, the broader macro picture is turning against risk assets that depend on abundant liquidity and steady investor appetite.
The Iran escalation may have accelerated the latest sell-off, but it did not create the market’s fragility. Bitcoin was already losing support before the geopolitical backdrop deteriorated.
CryptoQuant data show selling pressure has continued to outweigh institutional accumulation despite earlier support from spot exchange-traded funds and corporate buyers such as Strategy. The firm’s 30-day apparent demand growth stands at -63,000 BTC, indicating that fresh demand has not been strong enough to absorb supply.
Bitcoin Apparent Demand (Source: CryptoQuant)
The same pattern is visible across large holders. Whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted from accumulation into one of the sharpest distribution phases of the cycle. The one-year change in whale holdings has swung from an increase of about 200,000 BTC at the 2024 peak to a deficit of 188,000 BTC.
Mid-sized holders have also pulled back. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, often seen as an important layer of market support, have seen their holdings grow by only 429,000 BTC in the current market cycle, compared to about 1 million BTC in late 2025.
This weakness is especially clear in the United States. Coinbase Premium, a common gauge of US spot demand, has remained negative even as Bitcoin fell into the $65,000 to $70,000 range. That suggests American buyers, both retail and institutional, have not returned in enough size to stabilize the market.
Essentially, those figures help to describe a market that had already begun to lose resilience before war headlines intensified.
In calmer markets, that kind of positioning can help maintain price levels. However, it becomes a vulnerability in a macro shock as contracts that might otherwise have rolled forward are more likely to be cut, either by choice or through forced liquidation.
That is how orderly weakness turns into a cascade. Prices fall, leveraged longs are forced out, more selling follows, and the market starts moving on positioning stress rather than conviction.
Analysts at Bitunix told CryptoSlate that Bitcoin remains stuck in a passive pricing regime, with resistance around $69,400 still uncleared and downside liquidity continuing to build near $65,500. In a more hostile macro setting, that lower band could become the trigger point for a broader liquidation wave.
Options markets are sending a similarly cautious message. Greeks.live data show 28,000 BTC contracts expired on April 3 with a put-call ratio of 0.54 and a max pain point at $68,000, representing $1.8 billion in notional value.
According to the firm:
“Bitcoin performed poorly in both price and market sentiment during the first quarter of this year, and the first week of the second quarter has also been weak. Rebuilding confidence may require time and capital support; currently, all indicators point to bear market conditions.”
Why $10,000 is still a tail risk
Bitunix has described the current environment as a triple-constraint regime shaped by elevated inflation expectations, policy limits, and widening geopolitical risk.
That framework helps explain why crypto is reacting so sharply, as liquidity cannot ease much if oil stays high. At the same time, market confidence cannot recover easily if war risk continues to rise, speculative positions become harder to defend as the dollar strengthens, and volatility rises across asset classes.
In a moderate scenario, where the conflict remains contained but inflation stays elevated, unwinding leveraged futures could drag Bitcoin from around $70,000 to $50,000, within a roughly 25% to 30% correction.
Meanwhile, a harsher bear-case path would emerge if ETF outflows accelerate, spot demand remains weak, and the dollar continues to tighten financial conditions. In that setting, Bitcoin could slide into the $20,000 to $30,000 range, erasing 60% to 70% of its value from recent levels.
Bitcoin recovers toward resistance as liquidation pressure subsides.
Possible, but dependent on macro stabilization.
Moderate downside
Around $50,000
Conflict remains contained, but inflation stays elevated and leveraged futures positions unwind.
Roughly 25% to 30% correction from the recent $70,000 area.
Plausible downside case.
Mid-term bear case
$20,000 to $30,000
ETF outflows accelerate, spot demand remains weak, and the U.S. dollar continues to tighten financial conditions.
Bitcoin enters a deeper contraction, wiping out 60% to 70% from recent levels.
More severe, but still within historical drawdown patterns.
Tail-risk black swan
Around $10,000
Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or wider regional war sends oil to $150 to $200 a barrel and triggers a collapse in global liquidity.
Bitcoin suffers an extreme drawdown as speculative capital exits the market.
Tail risk, not the base case.
The move to $10,000 sits beyond that as a black swan outcome. It would likely require a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a wider regional war severe enough to push oil toward $150 to $200 a barrel, drive a much sharper tightening in global liquidity, and knock equities down by more than 30%.
Under those conditions, speculative capital across crypto would shrink dramatically, leaving Bitcoin exposed to the kind of 80% drawdown seen in earlier cycle washouts.
For now, the immediate takeaway is that Bitcoin is not acting as a safe haven amid war. Instead, it is trading like a highly sensitive risk asset whose direction still depends on liquidity, leverage, and the market’s willingness to absorb macro shock.
The ALT/BTC chart has printed four consecutive green MACD bars for the first time in nearly 6 years, according to popular analyst Ash Crypto.
The last time this happened, there was a 60% altcoin outperformance against Bitcoin over the three months that followed.
Three Signals Converging
In an April 2 post on X, Ash Crypto explained that for four years after the 2022 bear market, ALT/BTC was often in the red and oversold, reinforcing the feeling that altcoins have never truly recovered and Bitcoin is running alone.
However, they are now pointing to three developments happening at the same time that they said would make for excellent news for altcoin holders.
First and most eye-catching is the MACD signal, which measures momentum shifts by comparing two moving averages of price. The analyst says that the metric has now printed four green bars in a row on the ALT/BTC monthly chart. This last happened in August 2020, right before a big altcoin rally against BTC, when money moved from the main cryptocurrency to the smaller assets.
The second factor is the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a monthly index that measures activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 55 helped trigger two alt seasons in the past, in 2017 and 2021, and Ash Crypto noted that it has gone above 52 for three consecutive months, last seen in October 2022.
Furthermore, they noted that U.S. CPI inflation has fallen to a five-year low, which puts less pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, therefore creating a more favorable environment for risk assets like altcoins.
“This is the most bullish macro backdrop for risk assets including alts in years,” the analyst stated.
Not Quite Yet Alt Season
Nevertheless, Ash Crypto stopped short of calling a full altcoin season, saying for that to happen, ISM will have to go past 55, and there must be broad liquidity expansion, as well as a sustained drop in BTC dominance, all happening at the same time.
What they described instead was the possibility of a meaningful two-to-three-month recovery, provided Bitcoin clears $76,000 and Ethereum follows toward the $2,800 to $3,200 range.
However, soon after the initial analysis, Ash Crypto followed up to point out that a highly anticipated speech from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East had already complicated the picture.
“No analysis is going to work when Trump can destroy the chart and setup with a single speech,” they noted.
With Trump warning that the U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” in the next couple of weeks, BTC retreated below $67,000, and ETH dipped back under $2,100, with the crypto market shaving over 3% from its market cap, per CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, data published on March 30 by analyst Darkfost showed that more than 40% of altcoins were trading at or near their all-time lows, a reading that was way worse than what was seen during the 2022 bear market.
In addition, XWIN Research Japan today flagged a bearish outlook for most major altcoins, including ETH, XRP, Solana, and BNB, with data from CryptoRank showing that only seven tokens posted positive returns in Q1 2026, and Tron’s TRX was the only one from the top 10 that ended the quarter in the green.
