It’s Friday, and it’s Easter weekend. The jobs report just dropped — 228,000 jobs added in March against a 140,000 estimate. Strong number. That pushes rate cut expectations further out, which is a near-term headwind for risk assets. Bitcoin is at $66,873, still inside the descending wedge. No breakout yet.
This isn’t a normal weekend either. Easter means thinner liquidity than usual — fewer traders, fewer market makers, faster moves on less volume. And Trump has a habit of dropping Iran headlines after US markets close. If that happens this weekend, crypto will feel it immediately with no cushion. The range of outcomes is genuinely wide: sideways drift, or a 5% move in either direction before Monday morning. Position accordingly — don’t force a trade into a thin market.
The CLARITY Act is still moving. Institutional interest hasn’t reversed. Fear & Greed recovered from 8. None of that changed today. Watch the Monday open for the first real signal — US markets are closed today (Good Friday) but reopen Monday.
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Bitcoin is still compressing inside the descending wedge with no breakout yet. The weekly and daily are both bearish, the 3H is neutral, and the 45M is starting to turn bullish — which tells you short-term buyers are trying, but the bigger trend hasn’t confirmed anything. RSI sitting at 46 with Smart Money OUT means there’s no real conviction in either direction right now. The one thing worth watching is volatility at 4.48% — heading into a thin Easter weekend, that’s a setup for fast moves on relatively little volume.
Today’s jobs print (228K vs. 140K estimated) adds another layer of uncertainty. Strong employment pushes rate cut expectations further out and removes a near-term catalyst for risk assets. That doesn’t kill the bull case, but it does mean we need actual price confirmation, not just narrative, before the wedge resolves higher.
A 4H close above the descending trendline with volume is the signal — that opens the path to $75,714. On the downside, lose $67,183 and $63,725 comes back into play. The Monday open will be the first real read after the holiday weekend.
ETH is tracking weaker than Bitcoin right now, which is worth noting. The weekly is bearish, the daily is neutral, and the 3H has flipped bearish — the AI flagged a take-profit near the recent local high and price has since pulled back to $2,051, sitting just a few dollars above the $2,047 support level. Volatility at 2.01% is notably compressed compared to Bitcoin’s 4.48%, which typically signals one of two things: either a quiet weekend where nothing much happens, or a sharp move the moment something breaks.
The Glamsterdam hard fork in June — which bumps the gas limit from 60M to 200M — is a building narrative that institutional buyers are starting to pay attention to. But that’s a medium-term story. Right now, ETH under-performing BTC heading into a low-volume Easter weekend is not a setup for aggressive positioning.
Hold above $2,047 and the structure stays intact heading into next week. Lose that level and $1,997 comes into focus. A clean 4H close above $2,082 would be the re-engagement signal, with $2,419 as the next meaningful target.
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Easter weekend. Thin markets. Iran wildcard. Know your levels, don’t chase, and know that sometimes no trade is a trade.
The infrastructure buildout hasn’t stopped. The legislation is moving faster than most people realize. The Fear & Greed Index was at 8 earlier this week — that number doesn’t stay there long. If you’ve been waiting for a moment that looks obvious in hindsight, you’re probably in it right now. It just doesn’t feel like it yet because it never does.
Stay patient this weekend. Let the noise settle. Monday open will tell us more than anything happening between now and then.
See you next week.
