The Aug. 17 target date for starting Agave 4.2 mainnet feature activations arrived without a confirmed delivery update. Agave is Anza’s validator client for the Solana network.
Anza’s v4.2 release schedule still shows Aug. 17 as the tentative start date but left the delivery field blank. The empty field does not prove a delay or rule out a later update. It means the target date alone cannot establish that a feature gate is live.
Anza recommended Agave 4.2 for general mainnet adoption on Aug. 11. Its feature tracker separately continued to classify the first 4.2 slot-time gates as pending on mainnet, distinguishing software adoption from the staged protocol rollout.
Anza’s Agave 4.2 feature-gate tracker, last updated Aug. 14, listed the gates for 350-millisecond and 300-millisecond slots as pending mainnet activation. The tracker recorded their testnet activation epochs as 1000 and 1002, respectively, and their devnet activation epochs as 1115 and 1118. It did not list a mainnet activation epoch for either gate.
The 250-millisecond gate was still pending on devnet after activating on testnet at epoch 1004, while the final 200-millisecond gate remained pending on testnet. Solana’s slot-time plan calls for four separate 50-millisecond reductions from the current 400-millisecond target, with the network able to pause if block skip rates rise.
In the Agave 4.2 rollout, rent follows a five-gate path. Solana plans to reduce lamports_per_byte, the constant behind the refundable balance required for onchain storage, from 6,960 to 696. The intermediate values are 6,333, 5,080, 2,575 and 1,322. The Solana Foundation’s rent overview said all five gates were inactive when accessed on Aug. 17, so the advertised 90% cut describes the completed sequence rather than the first step.
The available material also lacked a confirmed activation for the transaction change. Solana’s v1 transaction plan raises the maximum payload from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes only for the new format. Legacy and v0 transaction limits remain unchanged.
Agave 4.2 includes code needed to test Alpenglow, but the consensus overhaul is not part of the 4.2 mainnet activation. The Solana Foundation’s release overview says Alpenglow is expected in Agave 4.3, targeted for October 2026.
For users and developers, the Aug. 17 date does not make the 90% rent cut, 4,096-byte transactions and 200-millisecond slots live as one package. A confirmed gate and its mainnet activation epoch would establish which part of the roadmap has actually moved into production.
Oxbridge Re Holdings supplied about 95% of the $781,767 raised by SurancePlus’s two T20 and T42 Solana-based placements. Those two offerings were part of the five placements behind Oxbridge’s broader $7.1 million headline, according to the company’s Aug. 13 filing.
SurancePlus, Oxbridge’s 80%-owned tokenized reinsurance subsidiary, offered the two products, T20 and T42. Oxbridge contributed approximately $744,623, while third-party investors supplied approximately $37,143. Using the reported total as the denominator, the split was about 95.25% parent-funded and 4.75% third-party-funded.
Oxbridge consolidates controlled subsidiaries, including SurancePlus, so the parent-funded subscription came from inside the group rather than independent investors. The filing does not explain how the consolidated accounts eliminated that specific transaction.
The $7.1 million aggregate in Oxbridge’s earnings release combined the T20 and T42 placements with three securities linked to HCI Group’s reinsurance business. Those HCI-linked series produced $6.323 million in gross subscription proceeds. Added to the T20 and T42 proceeds, the disclosed amounts total about $7.105 million, which rounds to the company’s headline figure.
The filing identifies the HCI-series purchasers only as “investors.” It does not name them or divide the proceeds between outside and related parties. The filings therefore do not support counting the $6.323 million as independently verified third-party demand, and they do not establish that HCI supplied the subscription proceeds.
Meanwhile, HCI provided separate collateral. A detailed filing note says HCI contributed approximately $6.19 million directly to three trust accounts. The same note attributes a separate deposit of about $5.8 million in net HCI-token proceeds to “the Company,” and says the accounts held $12.02 million at June 30. Gross subscriptions, net deposits, collateral and trust assets are different measures.
Oxbridge identifies HCI as a related entity through common directorship. HCI has described the tokens as synthetic contractual exposure that mirrors specified participations in Fortex Reinsurance’s program without affecting HCI’s or Fortex Re’s underlying reinsurance arrangements.
The T20 and T42 instruments are not shares in SurancePlus. Under the offering terms, they confer contractual rights but no ownership, voting, dividend, preemptive or conversion rights. Returns depend on allocated underwriting profits, while losses on the underlying reinsurance contracts can reduce them, making them conditional rather than fixed yields.
The disclosed third-party demand was approximately $37,143 for SurancePlus’s T20 and T42. However, the filings do not reveal enough about purchasers in the HCI-linked offerings to calculate independent demand across the full $7.1 million.
Our predictions show that SOL will achieve a high of $238.73 in 2026.
In 2029, it will range between $193.07 and $415.40, with an average price of $304.24.
By 2032, SOL is expected to trade between $348.45 and $800.37, with an average price of $574.41.
Despite occasional challenges for the Solana network ecosystem, including network congestion and competition from other blockchain platforms, the current sentiment shows that Solana demonstrates resilience and adaptability, despite the current price fluctuations, positioning itself as a leading player in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web3 landscape.
Overall, the prevailing sentiment regarding the current Solana price within the Solana community reflects the current sentiment of confidence and excitement among investors, driven by the growing interest in Solana with stakeholders eagerly anticipating the platform’s continued evolution and impact on the broader crypto ecosystem.
While uncertainties persist, Solana’s innovative approach, along with its low transaction fees and robust infrastructure instill optimism for its future price action, as indicated by the technical factors and technical analysis. In this article, we’ll explore Solana price prediction and market dominance, particularly when evaluated against momentum indicators. This brings the question “How high can SOL go in 2026 and beyond?” and we’ll try to answer that.
Overview
Cryptocurrency
Solana
Token
SOL
Price
$75.78(-0.15%)
Market Cap
$44.15 Billion
Trading Volume (24-hour)
$1.19 Billion
Circulating Supply
582.61 Million SOL
All-time High
$294.33 Jan 19, 2025
All-time Low
$0.5052, May 11, 2020
24-hour High
$76.50
24-hour Low
$75.36
Solana price prediction: Technical analysis
Market Sentiment
Bullish
50-Day SMA
$75.62
200-Day SMA
$83.20
Price Prediction
$78.31 (+2.80%)
Fear & Greed Index
10.53 (Fear)
Green Days
16/30 (54%)
14-Day RSI
51.98 (Neutral)
Solana price analysis: SOL falls to $75.7
TL;DR Breakdown:
Solana price analysis shows bearish pressure as SOL falls to $75.7
The altcoin lost 0.15% of its value in last 24-hours.
Support for SOL/USD is at $75
Today, on August 13, the Solana price analysis reveals bearish momentum as the price falls to the $75.7 mark.
Solana price analysis 1-day chart: SOL falls to $75.7
The daily price chart shows a slow decline to the $75.7 mark where SOL finds short term support.
The distance between the Bollinger Bands defines the intensity of volatility. This distance between high and low bands is narrow, leading to increased volatility. Moving ahead, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator, acting as the resistance band, has shifted to $77.14. The indicator’s mean line, which shows a support level, has shifted to $71.82.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is trading in the neutral region. The indicator’s value has decreased to 52.47 in the last candle, and its curve suggests bearish market sentiment at the level. If buying activities continue to intensify, further volatility in the market can be expected. However, the short-term indicators suggests a further decline
SOL/USD 4-hour price chart
The four-hour price analysis of the Solana shows the price observes bearish momentum in recent hours as price finds resistance at the $76.5 mark.
The Bollinger Bands are wide and show divergence, hinting at a falling volatility level. This level of volatility signifies decreased market unpredictability. Moving forward, the upper Bollinger Band has shifted to $76.79, securing the resistance point. Conversely, the lower Bollinger Band has moved to $75.15, indicating support.
The RSI indicator is in the overbought region. Currently at 48.27, the RSI’s position is showing bullish sentiment. The level of the index suggests low momentum with room for volatile movement across the short-term. The current slope suggests bullish pressure but we can only expect a rise back to the $79 mark if the bullish momentum is able to hold past $75.
The Solana price analysis suggests a bearish prediction based on ongoing market events for the day. The SOL/USD pair fell to the $73 mark from the highs of $79. SOL then recovered to $76.5 mark where it faced yet another rejection.
Is SOL a good investment?
Solana is a high-performance blockchain platform known for its robust scalability and speed due to various technological advancements, particularly in the crypto space boasting a substantial Total Value Locked (TVL). The network continues to hit key development milestones. Despite a challenging month, price predictions indicate a more positive outlook, suggesting the potential for Solana’s growth and future growth.
Why is SOL down?
Solana failed to establish support at $76.5 and higher levels and the resulting breakdown caused a decline o $75.7 where it finds short-term support. On the other hand, strong bearish pressure weighs on SOL above the $76 mark.
What is Solana going to be worth in 2026?
The Solana (SOL) price prediction for 2026 suggests a minimum value of $83.93 with an average price of $115.48, driven by fundamental factors in the market. The price could reach a maximum of $179.36 during the year.
Will SOL reach $1,000?
The price forecasts indicate that SOL could reach the $1000 mark by mid 2030s, influenced by trends in the broader crypto market. Given the bullish scenario and the projected positive market sentiment and growth trend, SOL might reach $1,000 within the next five years.
Can Solana reach $5,000?
Reaching $5,000 is plausible but would likely take several years beyond the current forecast period. However, a snowball in the asset’s adoption might bring the moment sooner.
Does SOL have a good long-term future?
Yes, Solana has a good long-term future, with a promising market capitalization and exciting potential ROI due to its high scalability, which makes Solana an attractive investment. Its growing adoption, strong developer community, and strategic partnerships further enhance Solana’s forecast of its potential for sustained growth.
Recent news/updates on Solana
Solana recently established a new all-time high of weekly transactions with 1,012,226,009 transactions being recorded between July 27 and August 2.
Weekly transaction count for the week of July 27 – Aug 2 crossed 1B, with a new all-time-high of 1,012,226,009 transactions
The SOL price prediction 2026 for August suggests a range of outcomes based on current market trends, greed index, and analysis. The forecast anticipates SOL to fluctuate between a minimum of $59.32 and an average of $78.46, and potentially attain a maximum of $88.34.
Month
Minimum Price ($)
Average Price ($)
Maximum Price ($)
August
66.35
78.46
88.34
Solana Price Prediction 2026
Solana (SOL) is predicted to reach a minimum of $61.22 in 2026. Experts suggest that future price movements indicate the coin could climb to a maximum of $238.73, with an average price around $153.70.
Year
Min. Price ($)
Average Price ($)
Maximum Price ($)
2026
61.22
153.70
238.73
Solana (SOL) price prediction 2027-2032
Year
Min. Price ($)
Average Price ($)
Maximum Price ($)
2026
61.22
153.70
238.73
2027
129.73
155.19
253.12
2028
146.83
222.79
382.86
2029
193.07
304.24
415.40
2030
227.03
361.48
495.92
2031
228.27
402.66
577.06
2032
348.45
574.41
800.37
Solana Price Prediction 2027
In 2027, Solana’s price is forecast to trade at a minimum of $129.73, reflecting the continued growth of the Solana blockchain. The coin could reach a maximum value of $253.12, with an average trading price of $155.19.
Solana Price Prediction 2028
If bullish momentum continues into 2028, SOL may record a minimum price of $146.83, a maximum of $382.86, and an expected average of $222.79.
Solana Price Prediction 2029
Analysis indicates that Solana could maintain its upward trajectory in 2029, with the price potentially hitting a minimum of $193.07, a maximum of $415.40, and an average of $304.24.
Solana Price Prediction 2030
Based on projections for 2030, Solana may trade at a minimum of $227.03, with an average price of around $361.48 and a possible peak of $495.92.
Solana Price Prediction 2031
Solana’s price is expected to reach a minimum of $228.27 in 2031. Analysts forecast a maximum value of $577.06 and an average trading price of $402.66.
Solana Price Prediction 2032
In 2032, Solana is projected to trade at a minimum of $348.45, with an average price of $574.41, while the maximum price could reach $800.37 if favorable market conditions persist.
Solana price prediction 2026-2032
Solana market price prediction: Analysts’ SOL price forecast
FirmName
2026
2027
Changelly
$167
$248.
DigitalCoinPrice
$132.89
$162.57
Cryptopolitan’s Solana (SOL) price prediction
Our predictions show that SOL will achieve a high of $238.73 in 2026. In 2029, it will range between $193.07 and $415.40, with an average price of $304.24. By 2032, SOL is expected to trade between $348.45 and $800.37, with an average price of $574.41.
However, it is advised to do your own research and conduct expert opinion before investing in the volatile crypto market.
Solana was launched in April 2020 and has gained popularity over the last 18 months. Its price surged from $0.75 to a high of $214.96 in early September.
Following NFT hype and growing demand in the DeFi community, the cryptocurrency Solana (SOL) price more than tripled during the summer of 2021. Solana (SOL) token became the fastest-growing cryptocurrency and is currently ranked fifth with a live market cap of nearly $66 billion.
2022 saw Solana leap to its all-time high of $260, but SOL failed to close the year anywhere near that high, as the price came crashing down to below $40 by June. The bearish markets were marked by high skepticism as trading volumes declined throughout the crypto markets.
The price continued to trade below the $40 level until November 2023, when Solana gained momentum and started a bullish rally again to close the year at $101.84.
In 2024, Solana (SOL) saw significant growth, with its price rising from $83.62 in January to a high of $202.87, fueled by its dominance in DeFi, NFTs, and decentralized exchanges. However, the price fluctuated through the year, retracing to $131 in September after struggling to maintain key levels.
October brought a positive rebound as SOL rose from $152 to close at $167, but early November started bearish, with the price dipping to $160.
However, Solana bounced back sharply and closed the month above the $230 mark. December, on the other hand, has observed a slow start as price volatility remains low.
Solana’s (SOL) price rose significantly in January 2025 from below the $190 level to close the month above $210. However, the latter half of the month saw the price decline from the $230 mark, a trend that continued through February ending the month below $150.
In March the price continued falling as the bears continued dominating the short to mid term markets ending the month below $125. In April the bearish rally has only continued as the price falls towards $100. However, the bulls bounced back in the middle of the month and ended the month around $150.
In May the price continued to rise and ended the month above the $165 price level, a trend that could not extend through June as the month saw a decline falling below the $150 price level to end the month.
July saw a sharp rise to the asset’s volatility with SOL crossing the $200 mark. However, the price could not be maintained and SOL ended the month below the $180 level. In August, on the other hand, SOL made strides and managed to close the month above the $205 mark.
In September, the volatility rose sharply as the price rose to the $250 price level but failed to maintain the level and ended the month at $230. In October, the decline increased sharply as SOL ended the month below $170. In November, and December the decline continued with SOL ending the year at the $125 mark.
In January, the trend continued with Solana crashing towards the $100 mark during the period. In February the decline continued as SOL declined below the $80 mark near the end of the month. In March, the trend continued for the first half but later made some recovery ending the month around the $78 mark.
In April, SOL saw volatility as price spiked to the $90 mark but ended up closing the month around the $83 mark. In May, the price recovered initially but declined again to end the month around the $80 mark.
In June, the trend continued with SOL ending the month around the $73 mark. Early July saw bullish movement a trend that reversed by the latter half resulting in low net volatility for SOL across the month.
DeFi Development Corp., which holds Solana’s SOL token as a treasury asset, reported a $27 million second-quarter loss. It is also retrenching, closing its Treasury Accelerator to new deals, lowering costs, and repurchasing convertible debt below face value.
The company said in an Aug. 12 shareholder letter that its net loss on digital assets was $21.519 million, reversing a $21.194 million gain a year earlier. The digital-asset line cannot be equated with quarterly cash burn because DFDV did not disclose its realized and unrealized components.
Operating expenses plus cost of goods sold, excluding fair-value changes, fell 22.6% year over year to $4.635 million from $5.990 million. Management expects operating expenses to decline again beginning in the third quarter, but it did not quantify the expected savings.
Debt buybacks help, but share sales dilute
Since its previous shareholder update, DFDV repurchased about $3.5 million of July 2030 convertible-note principal for $2.3 million in cash, a roughly 35% discount. It said cumulative repurchases had reached about $7.9 million of principal for $5.0 million, with estimated annual interest savings above $400,000.
The latest transaction retired $1.2 million more in principal than the cash DFDV spent, before transaction costs, while reducing the amount that could later convert into shares. The July notes pay 5.5%, mature in 2030 and are unsecured, with no SOL collateral-maintenance or margin-call mechanism in their indenture. That description applies only to the July notes; DFDV’s March 31 filing described other company financing as collateralized.
Beginning in late June, DFDV issued approximately 478,000 shares through its at-the-market facility for $1.4 million to cover cash operating costs. Management estimated that issuance reduced SOL per share by approximately 1.4%, offsetting some of the benefit from retiring debt below par.
As of Aug. 12, the company reported 2,311,523 SOL and SOL equivalents, 35.3 million fully converted shares and fully converted SOL per share of 0.066, up about 24% from 0.053 a year earlier. That management metric uses a point-in-time, assumed-conversion denominator. It is separate from the company’s roughly 31.0 million common shares and 43.7 million fully diluted shares at that date, as well as its 27.351 million GAAP diluted weighted-average shares for the quarter.
Leverage remains substantial. DFDV reported total debt equal to 216% of its market capitalization and net debt equal to 104% of SOL and SOL equivalents as of Aug. 12. The latest package did not state a current face balance for its convertible notes after the repurchases.
DFDV said it will originate no additional Treasury Accelerator transactions. Its ZeroStack and Allied Architects investments remain in place and will be managed or monetized when appropriate, so the closure is not a full liquidation of the program’s positions.
Debt repurchases and lower costs support per-share economics, while ATM issuance moves them the other way. Sustained SOL-per-share growth depends on how DFDV balances treasury accumulation against future share issuance and financing costs; its equity value and net asset value also remain exposed to SOL’s price.
Fed rate hike fears collapsed on Wednesday after July inflation cooled to 3.4%. Gold climbed, crypto bounced, and a closely watched Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal started flashing.
One piece is still missing. CryptoQuant says the panic selling that sealed every past bear market low has not arrived yet.
Fed Pause Odds Jump After a Cooler July CPI
The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% for the month. Annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February. Cheaper gasoline, down 2.9% on the month, did much of the work.
September Fed Interest Rate Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Rate traders repriced within minutes. CME FedWatch now gives a 61.9% chance the Fed holds rates in September. A month ago, markets leaned toward a hike, and rare rate hike odds still rattled Bitcoin in late July.
Gold rose 0.5% to about $4,436 per ounce. The metal has rallied since last week’s weak US jobs report. Crypto followed the same relief trade, helped by steady inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management called the report encouraging, with the general assumption that it gives policymakers room to hold.
However, economist Peter Schiff challenges this outlook, arguing that July’s number still carries May’s oil price crash, not July’s rebound at the pump.
“July’s 0.1% CPI rise is misleading. Energy prices fell because CPI compares monthly average prices. But oil and gasoline rose sharply during July after starting the month at depressed levels. That means July CPI still reflects May’s oil price collapse, not July’s sharp rebound,” wrote Schiff.
If he is right, the next CPI print could look far less friendly.
Bitcoin Bottom Signal Flashes, but Capitulation Looks Incomplete
Meanwhilke, CryptoQuant’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) measures paper gains and losses across all holders. Right now, it shows something rare. Bitcoin’s most committed investors are deeper in the red than the market as a whole.
CryptoQuant chart of long-term holder aNUPL versus price. Source: CryptoQuant
That pattern marked every major cycle low. It appeared in December 2018 and again in November 2022, when BTC bottomed 77% below its peak. Today’s damage is milder. BTC trades roughly 50% below its cycle high, near $64,160.
“Bitcoin is displaying a condition repeatedly associated with macro bottoms, but not yet the emotional and financial exhaustion that made previous bottoms unmistakable,” CryptoQuant analysts wrote.
Fidelity Digital Assets tracks the same cohort. The firm recently flagged long-term holder supply as one of the clearest reads on a forming bottom.
So why no bottom call? Past lows pushed holder losses far deeper, into what CryptoQuant calls “depression” territory. This cycle may not need that.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, live since January 2024, give institutions a way to absorb the coins that panicked sellers dump. Some chart watchers still expect a final bear leg first.
The tell is what aNUPL does next. A deeper slide with real selling would look like the classic final flush. A turn back toward zero, while BTC holds a higher low, would suggest the worst has passed.
One more CPI report lands before the Fed’s September 16 decision. It may answer both questions at once.
XRP funds led altcoin inflows in July, extending a four-month streak that increasingly separates them from most rival products.
The US-listed funds attracted $27.29 million during the month, nearly twice Solana’s $14.62 million intake, according to SoSoValue data. Chainlink followed with $4.54 million, while Hedera products added $3 million.
Bitcoin and Ethereum remained the dominant crypto fund categories, attracting $172 million and $365 million, respectively. Among products tracking assets outside the two market leaders, however, XRP finished July comfortably ahead.
XRP builds the steadiest demand as Solana and Hyperliquid gain ground
XRP funds have become the altcoin ETF market’s most consistent source of new capital, ranking first or second in monthly inflows since April and avoiding a single monthly outflow over that period.
Indeed, XRP funds attracted $81.59 million in April, $131.94 million in May, $59.46 million in June and $27.29 million in July. The four-month run has added more than $300 million and lifted cumulative inflows to roughly $1.5 billion, the largest total among altcoin products.
This run also gives XRP the longest active monthly inflow streak across the crypto funds tracked by SoSoValue this year.
However, that lead is becoming more competitive. Solana funds have accumulated about $1.15 billion since launch and returned to second place in July after a modest June outflow. Their scale suggests investor demand is beginning to extend beyond XRP rather than concentrating in a single altcoin.
Hyperliquid has emerged even faster. Its funds attracted about $293 million across May and June, briefly surpassing XRP in both months before recording its first outflow in July. The reversal slowed that momentum but did not erase one of the strongest launches in the market.
Together, XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid are forming a distinct group beneath Bitcoin and Ethereum.
XRP stands out for the durability of its inflows, while Solana and Hyperliquid show that investors are also building meaningful exposure to a small number of emerging alternatives.
Crypto ETF product shelf is expanding faster than demand
Strong demand for XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid contrasts with weak, sporadic flows across the rest of the altcoin fund market.
Several products spent most or all of July without attracting fresh capital. Avalanche and Polkadot recorded no monthly flows, while BNB has not registered a net inflow since June 11.
Their cumulative totals remain modest, ranging from about $1.45 million for BNB and $1.94 million for Polkadot to roughly $24 million for Avalanche.
A zero-flow day does not mean investors stopped trading the funds. It means creations and redemptions produced no net addition of capital. But the frequency of those days still reveals a market where new listings are expanding faster than the pool of committed buyers.
For context, Litecoin and Dogecoin each recorded flows on just two days during July, with withdrawals largely offsetting the limited money that entered. Dogecoin finished the month with about $526,000 of net outflows, while Litecoin was effectively flat.
Hedera stood out within that group, attracting $3 million across four positive sessions and lifting cumulative inflows to about $105 million.
Even so, the concentration of its monthly demand into only a few days shows how sporadic allocations remain outside the leading products.
The emerging structure is therefore becoming more selective. Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate the market, XRP and Solana have established a credible second tier, and Hyperliquid has shown that newer products can break through quickly.
Beneath them, a growing long tail of altcoin funds is struggling to convert regulatory access into sustained investment demand.
Solana (SOL) joined the broader crypto rebound after cooling US inflation data, climbing back toward $80.
According to some analysts, this could be the beginning of a more substantial rally that might push the price well beyond the psychological level of $100.
SOL Turns Bullish
The renowned analyst Ali Martinez claimed that the Average True Range (ATR) stop has flipped below price, marking the first SuperTrend buy signal on Solana since October 10.
He believes that if buying pressure continues to build, SOL could surge toward $96 and even $121. At the same time, Martinez paid close attention to the $60 level, noting that a drop below that support would invalidate the bullish setup.
Michael van de Poppe also chipped in, suggesting that the asset is at an important crossroads. He thinks that if SOL manages to keep its current valuation at around $77, it may trigger a much more substantial upswing. On the other hand, he warned that a drop below $73 could trigger a retest of the lows in the coming weeks.
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart pointed to a key regulatory development that may swing momentum toward the bulls. He revealed that Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley has filed updated documents to launch a Solana ETF with the ticker MSOL and a 0.14% fee. An eventual introduction of such a financial vehicle could draw additional investors into Solana’s ecosystem and benefit the price.
It is important to note that Morgan Stanley wouldn’t be the only behemoth offering that kind of a product, as Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, Invesco, 21Shares, and Canary Capital have already jumped on the bandwagon. The cumulative net inflow into spot SOL ETFs to date has reached almost $1.15 billion.
Another Positive Factor
The prolonged bear market and unmet ecosystem expectations have recently pushed Solana’s fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to its highest level for 2026.
This means that sentiment among market participants is extremely negative, and most weak-hand investors have already exited. The development could be interpreted as bullish, since the price often reverses when fear peaks, suggesting that the cycle’s bottom might have been formed.
World, a Chainlink-powered prediction market launched in the Phantom wallet on Solana on July 1, said recently that it is moving to Robinhood Chain.
The move shifts the project from Solana’s crypto-focused users to Robinhood’s roughly 28 million customers, prompting some users to accuse it of using Solana to gain attention before leaving.
After more than two years of teasers, the concept debuted in Phantom, a well-known Solana wallet. It allowed players to wager on the price of Bitcoin and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with rewards issued in Phantom’s CASH stablecoin and results validated by Chainlink.
The announcement gave no reason for the shutdown, mentioned no technical issues, and did not explain what would happen to open bets.
The move was unexpected, as World had recently said it planned to expand into markets for economic data, elections, and major sports leagues in the coming weeks.
Why Robinhood makes more sense
Robinhood appears to be the more likely reason for the move.
The brokerage has already launched tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs for European users and plans to move them from Arbitrum to Robinhood Chain.
Robinhood reported 27.4 million funded customer accounts in the first quarter of 2026, giving World access to a much larger base of retail investors.
Chainlink is also part of Robinhood Chain’s infrastructure, allowing World to keep its existing settlement system.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has also shown users how to move funds from Solana to Robinhood Chain by bridging USDC and swapping it for the network’s Paxos-backed USDG stablecoin.
Polymarket has applied to offer margin trading in the U.S., which would allow users to fund only part of a wager.
National Futures Association records show that PM Derivatives LLC filed applications on July 3 for futures commission merchant status, NFA membership, and swap firm registration on behalf of Polymarket-linked entity Coming Home GBA LLC.
The company would still need approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before launching margin trading.
That would move Polymarket beyond simple yes-or-no markets and closer to a leveraged trading platform. Adding borrowed funds would increase both potential gains and losses for everyday users.
The move also intensifies competition with Kalshi, which is further ahead in the U.S.
Both platforms reported record trading volumes in June, with Kalshi reaching $33 billion and Polymarket, including its U.S. platform, nearing $14 billion. Both also launched crypto perpetual futures earlier this year.
Polymarket’s U.S. expansion has faced challenges. The company is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is also facing a lawsuit over its marketing, though its margin trading application signals it plans to keep expanding.
The company is collaborating with regulators to create never-expiring futures linked to gold, foreign exchange, and energy, Chief Risk Officer Udesh Jha told Reuters.
In addition to institutional investors, retail traders account for a sizable portion of Kalshi’s user base, hence he claimed that gold is a top focus.
Kalshi would be in direct rivalry with the world’s biggest derivatives exchange, CME Group, as a result of that development.
Due to the CFTC’s decision to let Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual futures, CME has already filed a lawsuit against the organization and its chairman, Michael Selig.
The decision is a “disaster waiting to happen,” according to Terry Duffy, the departing CEO of CME, who cautioned that retail traders might not fully understand the risks.
If Kalshi’s growth is permitted, it will directly compete with major exchanges such as CME, Nasdaq, Cboe, and Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange. According to reports, the corporation plans to go public between late 2027 and early 2028.
Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It’s free.
Solana’s recovery appears to have lost momentum after it shed over 6% in the past week. As it currently trades near $77, it is facing its most negative market sentiment of 2026.
In fact, SOL’s trading volume has dropped to its lowest point in 2026, while negative commentary surrounding the asset has surged to its highest daily level this year, according to Santiment.
Rebound Setup Emerges
Much of the disappointment stems from expectations that strong narratives around tokenized stocks and real-world asset (RWA) activity would translate into stronger price performance, something traders have yet to see.
Santiment noted that this combination of elevated fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) alongside weak trading volume has historically created conditions that can favor a rebound. With retail participation low and sentiment deeply negative, there may be less resistance if large stakeholders decide to drive Solana’s prices higher, which could potentially set the stage for a sharp move that catches traders off guard.
The Solana network added 1.60 million new addresses over the past two weeks. Additionally, the SuperTrend indicator on SOL’s three-day chart also flashed a new buy signal for the first time since October 10, 2025, when the Average True Range (ATR) trailing stop moved below the price. According to analyst Ali Martinez, the previous SuperTrend sell signal was followed by a 74% price correction. He said the latest signal points to a bullish trend and could send SOL toward $100.
Michaël van de Poppe also observed that the crypto asset has re-entered its trading range and may briefly pull back before continuing its upward move. He added that holding the $75-$77 range as support could open the door to gains toward $100 and potentially $120 in the coming weeks or months.
$78 Holds the Key
Another crypto analyst, Dami-Defi, also pointed to a potential breakout as SOL currently tests the upper boundary of a descending channel that has been in place since September 2025. According to the analyst, a three-day close above $78 would confirm the breakout and open the door to an initial move toward $105, followed by $125 and $155 if momentum continues.
However, the setup would be invalidated by a three-day close below $72, and stronger trading volume would be needed to confirm the breakout.
World, a week-old Solana (SOL) prediction market, staged a fake exit. On July 8, it said it was leaving Solana for Robinhood Chain, then admitted the whole thing was a crypto prank the following day.
The gag drew millions of views and briefly fooled parts of the crypto industry. It also divided opinion on whether staged deception is smart marketing or a costly gamble for a young platform.
How the Crypto Prank Spread
World went live on Solana on July 1 inside the Phantom wallet, with Chainlink (LINK) handling data and settlement. Solana’s official account had promoted the debut just a week earlier.
Days later, the project told followers it was leaving for Robinhood Chain. It thanked the Solana Foundation and posted a polished logo for the supposed move.
The target made the fake believable. Robinhood Chain is a real Arbitrum-based Layer 2 that launched on July 1 for tokenized stocks.
That same week, the network set a record daily volume of $563.9 million, according to DefiLlama. Meme coins, not tokenized stocks, drove the frenzy. It was arguably crypto’s hottest new chain.
Several outlets reported the migration as fact. Within a day, World revealed the joke.
The reception split. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko amplified the gag, and CoinGecko co-founder Bobby Ong called it sharp marketing.
“I’m still trying to figure out if they moved to Robinhood Chain or staying at Solana. I think this is a parody and they are actually staying on Solana. I guess it triggered many folks and got them the attention that they really want, which is all that matters in consumer tech,” Ong remarked.
Critics, however, saw a bait-and-switch that erodes trust in a product handling real bets.
The on-chain record complicates any victory claim. An independent dashboard built by analyst ario_57 tracks World’s activity. It shows roughly $4.37 million in notional volume. Daily users peaked near 3,000 since the July 1 launch.
World’s daily on-chain volume, showing the pre-prank peak. Source: Dune/ario_57
Yet that volume crested around July 6, two days before the stunt. The cumulative totals cover the full launch week, not one viral afternoon. The prank coincided with World’s momentum. It did not create it.
The 2.3 million views were World’s own tally, a measure of attention rather than adoption. Meanwhile, prediction markets face fresh scrutiny, raising the cost of any misstep in trust.
For now, World has crypto’s attention and a working product behind the gag. Whether that attention becomes lasting users is the question the coming weeks will answer.
![World's daily on-chain volume, showing the pre-prank peak, Source: Dune/ario_57]](https://assets.beincrypto.com/img/-avHN9_82Fzf-o66hJTGVAYBSIg=/smart/9bf00bf07a9042d7bfc0990ea56902d6)