Bitcoin-backed preferred shares STRC and SATA posted their highest combined monthly trading volume on record in June, surpassing $10 billion amid a BTC sell-off that pushed both below their $100 par value.
According to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net (BTN), Strategy’s STRC generated $8.7 billion in trading volume last month, while Strive’s SATA recorded $1.5 billion, and this happened with the price of BTC falling near the $57,000 level.
June Trading Sets New Preferred Stock Record
BitcoinTreasuries’ latest corporate adoption report shows that the $8.7 billion recorded by STRC represented a 20.8% jump from the $7.2 billion in May and 11.5% above April’s $7.8 billion. The amount was also more than 52% higher than what the shares generated in March after a much quieter start to the year.
Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock volumes had reached $2.2 billion in February before climbing 159.1% in March. January recorded $2.4 billion, following $1.2 billion in December 2025.
The BTC treasuries market aggregator pointed to June as the first major stress test for the digital credit products after STRC and SATA both dropped well below their $100 par value beginning June 18. According to the firm, margin calls forced STRC and SATA leveraged traders to liquidate positions after an extended period of trading near par.
After weathering Bitcoin’s fall to a price level below $60,000, STRC recovered to about $87 by July 2 after falling as low as $75, while SATA traded near $97. A survey by BTN found that investors were quite headstrong despite the volatility, with more than half of respondents saying that the price decline was not a significant concern. 84% did not sell either of the stocks during the decline, and 52% bought one or both of them after June 18.
“The instinct after June 18 is to ask whether STRC and SATA are safe,” the survey read. “That is the wrong question. Strategy holds 847,363 BTC acquired at an average cost of approximately $75,651. The dividend obligation is a cash flow question, not a solvency question.”
It also pointed out that none of the issuers had missed a payment, and none of them had seen their credit quality change from mid-June.
Strategy, Strive, Metaplanet Lead in Issuer Confidence
In the investor confidence part of the BTN study, respondents projected the strongest issuance potential for Strategy, with the most common expectation placing new digital credit issuance between $10 billion and $30 billion for the Michael Saylor-led firm by the end of 2027.
Strive came in second place on a forecast between $2 billion and $5 billion in additional issuance, followed by Metaplanet, Smarter Web Company, and Bitmine, respectively.
When asked which digital credit issuers appeared most promising, 78.4% of those who took the poll ranked Strategy first, 74.5% tapped Strive second, and Metaplanet took third spot with 49%.
On-chain data has confirmed that June was a painful month for bitcoin (BTC), but beyond the price weakness, both spot demand and institutional flows faltered. Due to last month’s performance, there is speculation that the market may be nearing a cyclical bottom, but this remains unconfirmed.
In the meantime, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed in this week’s Bitfinex Alpha that historical data suggests that July could be better for BTC. However, a seasonality dynamic will not be able to sustain a recovery for BTC this month – the asset needs sustained spot and institutional demand.
Worst June in 4 Years
BTC fell to a fresh cycle low of $57,800 last month, marking the worst June since 2022 and the second-worst since 2013. Analysts say this dump was intensified by waning STRC demand and six consecutive weeks of outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the longest since their launch. The decline to $58,000 marked a 54.15% plunge from current cycle highs, and BTC ended June down 20.48%.
“June’s downside was likely deepened by the failure of both principal demand engines: waning STRC demand and ETF outflows that represented the worst streak on record. The month closed down 20.48 percent from its monthly open, far below the seasonal median of negative 1.5 percent. That sharp deviation left the market technically oversold heading into July,” analysts explained.
With BTC reclaiming the $60,000 level on July 1, market experts believe the plunge may have been a failed breakdown rather than a sustained leg lower. Additionally, the rebound indicated that spot demand had begun to return at marginal lows. Although the current setup supports a positive seasonality for July, only the return of stronger demand, particularly through renewed ETF inflows, will sustain recovery.
Will July Be Better?
In prior bear markets, June and November have been the weakest months, so July has historically been firmer. This month posted double-digit gains in 2018 and 2022 bear cycles. However, analysts believe it is too early to tell if the cycle lows are in. The stage for broader sustainable recovery is only set if the demand engines are repaired.
“Seasonality supports the current setup but will not drive it,” analysts stated.
Interestingly, the ETF market has witnessed a reprieve from the bearish regime – $223.5 million on July 2. However, analysts insist that one session of inflows is insufficient to reverse the damage from six weeks of outflows.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) officially ended on July 4, the sunset date written into President Donald Trump’s January 2025 executive order. Posts from Elon Musk and Michael Saylor quickly fueled speculation that Bitcoin (BTC) inherits the reform story.
Musk, DOGE’s former co-leader, marked Independence Day with a patriotic video montage instead of a farewell to the program. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s executive chairman answered him with one loaded line.
DOGE Ends With No Report and No Farewell
Trump’s January 2025 executive order created DOGE as a temporary organization. It set termination for July 4, 2026, America’s 250th birthday.
The program barely made it that far. DOGE had already collapsed as a centralized body last November, months ahead of schedule. Its public savings tracker went silent after January 1.
The commission claimed $215 billion in savings, about $1,335 per taxpayer by its own math. That equals roughly 3% of one year’s $7 trillion federal budget, and a fraction of the $2 trillion Musk pitched in October 2024.
Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought told lawmakers this week that no closing report is planned, Politico reported.
Musk, who left Washington in May 2025 after 130 days as a special government employee, always framed the ending as intentional.
The efficiency concept has meanwhile traveled beyond Washington. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani recently launched a municipal efficiency version of the playbook.
Michael Saylor Answers Musk With a Bitcoin Pitch
Marc Andreessen opened July 4 with a five-minute montage of American history and the caption “God bless America.” Musk shared the same video hours later.
Saylor then replied to Musk directly, swapping a letter for the Bitcoin symbol.
Saylor has run this play before. In December 2020, he publicly urged Musk to shift Tesla’s balance sheet into Bitcoin. Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth two months later, then suspended BTC payments in May 2021 over energy concerns.
That history shaped the reaction. Traders read the exchange as a handoff from government reform to sound money, and some replies urged Tesla to resume Bitcoin payments. BTC trades near $62,584, up about 1% in 24 hours.
The timing carries irony for Saylor. Strategy faces questions over a reported 491 BTC sale and a dividend policy JPMorgan called risky. Meanwhile, Saylor pits MSTR against the Magnificent 7.
Neither Musk nor Saylor mentioned DOGE by name. The debate now turns on whether innovation and Bitcoin truly replace the reform push, or whether the ₿etter reply stays a holiday flourish.
Our Bitcoin price prediction expects BTC’s price to reach $150K by the end of 2026 due to the bullish sentiment following the halving event.
By 2032, BTC might touch $350,548 following increased institutional adoption.
Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026 has become highly debated. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the rally after the halving were expected to bring more clarity, but instead they’ve brought mixed volatility in Bitcoin price forecast.
However, top analysts are bullish on BTC price prediction this year. Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach about $250,000 by 2026. He bases this view on Bitcoin’s limited supply and the possibility that institutions and major companies will continue to adopt it. Investor and author Robert Kiyosaki has made a similar prediction, arguing that Bitcoin’s scarcity makes it a strong store of value in a world where traditional currencies are becoming less stable.
As Bitcoin’s on-chain activities surge, questions arise, such as: “Does Bitcoin have the potential to hold above the $100K mark?” or “Will Bitcoin go up?” or “Where will Bitcoin be in 5 years?” Let’s answer them using our Bitcoin price prediction 2026 model.
Overview
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin
Ticker
BTC
Price
$61,348 (+1%)
Market capitalization
$1.42 Trillion
Trading volume (24-hour)
$52.53 Billion (+7%)
Circulating supply
20 Million BTC
All-time high
$124,457; August 14, 2025
All-time low
$0.04865; Jul 15, 2010
24-hour high
$62,682.34
24-hour low
$58,926.33
Bitcoin price prediction: Technical analysis
Metric
Value
Current Price
$ 61,748
Price Prediction
$ 66,003 (7.61%)
Fear & Greed Index
19 (Extreme Fear)
Sentiment
Bearish
Volatility
3.25% (Medium)
Green Days
12/30 (40%)
50-Day SMA
$ 67,794
200-Day SMA
$ 75,112
14-Day RSI
43.82 (Neutral)
Bitcoin price analysis
TL;DR Breakdown:
BTC price analysis shows that buyers are pushing the price toward $62K
Resistance for BTC is at $62,221
Support for BTC/USD is at $61,227
The BTC price analysis for 3 July confirms that BTC faces buying pressure as BTC declines toward $62K. Currently, the Bitcoin price is aiming to hold above $60K.
Analyzing the daily Bitcoin price chart, we see that Bitcoin faces bullish pressure as it surges toward $62K. Currently, the BTC price is facing short-liquidation around immediate resistance channels. The 24-hour volume has increased to $1.16 billion, showing a surge in trading interest today. BTC is trading at $62,111, surging by over 1% in the last 24 hours.
The RSI-14 trend line hovers around 32, hinting that a strong bearish pressure is on the way. The SMA-14 level suggests volatility in the next few hours.
BTC/USD 4-hour price chart: Selling domination rises around EMA trend lines
The 4-hour Bitcoin price chart suggests that sellers are strengthening their position to hold the price below the EMA trend lines. Currently, sellers are strongly defending a recovery.
The BoP indicator trades in a positive region at 0.52, showing that short-term buyers are taking a chance to accelerate an upward trend.
Additionally, the MACD indicator has formed green candles above the signal line and the indicator aims for positive momentum, strengthening long-position holders’ confidence.
Bitcoin technical indicators: Levels and action
Daily simple moving average (SMA)
Period
Value
Action
SMA 3
$ 60,096
BUY
SMA 5
$ 60,036
BUY
SMA 10
$ 60,393
BUY
SMA 21
$ 62,482
SELL
SMA 50
$ 67,794
SELL
SMA 100
$ 71,181
SELL
SMA 200
$ 75,112
SELL
Daily exponential moving average (EMA)
Period
Value
Action
EMA 3
$ 60,652
BUY
EMA 5
$ 60,448
BUY
EMA 10
$ 60,800
BUY
EMA 21
$ 62,305
SELL
EMA 50
$ 66,195
SELL
EMA 100
$ 69,980
SELL
EMA 200
$ 76,481
SELL
What to expect from BTC price analysis next?
The hourly price chart confirms that Bitcoin is attempting to drop below the immediate support line; however, bulls are eyeing a recovery rally in the coming hours. If BTC’s price holds momentum above $62,221, it will fuel a bullish rally to $63,436.
If bulls fail to initiate a surge, the BTC price may drop below the immediate support line at $61,227, beginning a bearish trend to $59,625.
Is Bitcoin a good investment?
The rising institutional demand for Bitcoin etfs makes it a good investment option in the crypto market. However, Bitcoin has a short investment history filled with very volatile market value. Whether it is a good investment depends on your financial profile, investment portfolio, risk tolerance, and investment goals. It is suggested to conduct investment advice of the financial markets and understand the financial system risks.
Why is Bitcoin up today?
Bitcoin faced a surge in buying pressure as buyers pushed the price above immediate fib levels around $60K.
Will the BTC price reach $100K?
Bitcoin price broke its much-anticipated mark of $100K, aiming for a new ATH. The price currently prepares to maintain its buying demand above $100K.
Will BTC reach $1 million?
$1 million is a significant milestone for the BTC price. However, it is achievable if Bitcoin continues to attract institutional interest in the coming years.
Is Bitcoin a good long-term investment?
As several institutions continue to accumulate BTC and Bitcoin faces a rise in global recognition, Bitcoin has a solid long-term future.
Recent news/opinions on BTC
As reported by Cryptopolitan, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is concerned that Strategy’s new policy of selectively selling its Bitcoin holdings will introduce new risk to the crypto market.
Bitcoin price prediction July 2026
Bitcoin’s price dropped toward $60K in June. However, it is now facing minor accumulation, which could mean we’ll see a recovery around July 2026.
Bitcoin’s price might attempt to maintain an average price of $75,000 and be pushed further, at least $80,000 if strong downward pressures are not seen. However, we might see a rejection on the bearish side, leading to a consolidation at around $60,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Potential Low
Potential Average
Potential High
Bitcoin Price Prediction July 2026
$60,000
$75,000
$80,000
Bitcoin price prediction 2026
Historically, Bitcoin has been a significant crypto coin in the years following a halving, and it is expected to push up its price after a downturn in 2025. Bitcoin miners might play a crucial role in holding bullish sentiment for future price movements.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are projected to be a key driver of Bitcoin prices and the broader cryptocurrency market in 2026. As a result, Bitcoin’s trajectory might follow a bullish trend ahead with rising treasury term premium.
Furthermore, there is an increasing bullish sentiment that the base interest rates could be cut in the US, and thus, help to further the upward movement of Bitcoin. An outcome of which the 2026 year could be positive for Bitcoin, with its crypto-price perhaps touching $150,000 at the highest and the low could be around $48,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Potential Low
Potential Average
Potential High
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026
$48,000
$100,000
$150,000
Bitcoin Price Predictions 2027-2032
Year
Minimum Price
Average Price
Maximum Price
2027
$115,000
$130,000
$185,000
2028
$140,491
$170,100
$216,738
2029
$164,063
$185,068
$244,142
2030
$195,629
$200,312
$255,321
2031
$225,903
$248,568
$270,593
2032
$285,058
$303,555
$350,548
Bitcoin price prediction 2027
Bitcoin might witness slow growth after 2025’s Bitcoin halving surge, resulting in a surge in selling pressure. However, more financial products including a surge in ETF flows might hold BTC prices within a bullish region. The digital assets market sentiment shows bullish signals for Bitcoin hit new highs. As the overall sentiment gives a bullish outlook, one should research more about Bitcoin before investing.
We might see a maximum price of $185,000, with a minimum price of $115,000 and average price of $130,000.
Bitcoin forecast 2028
Based on a detailed technical analysis of past Bitcoin price movements, it is projected that in 2028, Bitcoin could see a minimum price of $140,491. The potential maximum price is estimated to be $216,738, with an average closing price of $170,100.
Bitcoin price prediction 2029
By 2029, Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach a low of $164,063. Maximum price projections are as high as $244,142, averaging about $185,068 for the year.
Bitcoin price forecast 2030
Projections for 2030 suggest that Bitcoin could be valued at a minimum of $195,629. The price may peak at as much as $255,321, with an average throughout the year expected to be around $200,312.
Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction 2031
The forecast for 2031 suggests that Bitcoin’s price could start at a minimum of $225,903 and potentially rise to a maximum of $270,593. The average price is anticipated to stabilize at about $248,568 throughout the year.
Bitcoin price prediction 2032
The forecast for 2032 suggests that Bitcoin’s price could start at a minimum of $285,058 and potentially rise to a maximum of $350,548. The average price is anticipated to stabilize at about $303,555 throughout the year.
A surge in bitcoin adoption and the expansion of the Bitcoin ecosystem might end the controversy of “Bitcoin bubble” in future. This might boost the Bitcoin cost and strengthen the Bitcoin network. At Cryptopolitan, we are bullish on Bitcoin’s future price as the historical market sentiment is extremely impressive. By the end of 2026, Bitcoin might record a maximum of $150,000, with a minimum price of $48,000 and an average price of $100,000.
However, Bitcoin’s future market potential entirely depends on its buying demand, regulation, and investor sentiment regarding long-term holdings. Crypto analysts provide a positive sentiment as macroeconomic trends turn promising.
We expect Bitcoin price to surpass a high of $216,738 by the end of 2028.
Bitcoin historic price sentiment
BTC price history: Coinmarketcap
Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin in 2009, marking the first use of blockchain technology.
Bitcoin was initially of little value, gaining significant traction and hitting over $15,000 during the 2017 boom, with further highs reached in 2019 and 2021.
In 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $68,789.63 but dropped to $15,760 by December 2022 amid economic pressures, including inflation and geopolitical conflicts.
By April 10, 2023, Bitcoin’s price surged 83%, breaking the $30,000 resistance level.
Throughout mid-2023, Bitcoin’s value hovered around $30,000, nearly reaching $32,000 due to positive market sentiments and potential ETF approvals.
Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop in mid-August 2023, falling to $25,000. However, its prices remained volatile, fluctuating between $26,000 and $29,500 in October.
Bitcoin closed 2023 above $42,000, a 155% increase from the year’s start.
In early 2024, Bitcoin rose above $45,000 on ETF anticipation but briefly dipped below $40,000 after approvals. It broke its 2021 all-time high in March, reaching $73,750.07 on March 14, before dropping below $60,000 in April. May saw another surge above $70,000, while June and July brought heavy fluctuations between $70K and $55K.
Bitcoin rallied to $66K in September after a Fed rate cut, climbed to $70K in October’s Uptober rally, and surged toward $108K following Donald Trump’s victory in the November US elections. BTC ended 2024 consolidating below $95K.
At the start of January 2025, BTC was trading between $92,788.13 and $95,824.39. However, it formed an ATH at $109,114 on January 20.
In the weeks of February, the price of BTC dropped heavily as it dropped toward the $78K low.
In March, the price of Bitcoin declined heavily and dropped toward a low of $76.6K. In April, the price of Bitcoin started recovering. By the end of April, it neared the critical $95K zone.
In May, Bitcoin price skyrocketed and it formed a new ATH at $111,970. However, the price declined later, toward $104K.
By the end of June, BTC price reclaimed the $108K level.
In July, BTC price triggered a surge toward $123K; however, it faced strong selling pressure later.
In mid-August, the price of Bitcoin surged above $124K. However, the price failed to maintain its momentum as it dropped below $110K in early-September.
By the end of September, the price of Bitcoin dropped further and touched a low around $108K.
In October, the price of Bitcoin crashed heavily below $110K. The price crashed further toward $84K in November.
Bitcoin ended December 2025 on a bearish note by trading below $90K.
Bitcoin price further dropped in January 2026 as it crashed toward $77K. In February, the price of BTC hit a low at $60K.
BTC price continued to face bearish pressure in March. However, it surged above $70K in early April. By the end of April, BTC price surged toward $80K.
By the end of May, the price of BTC dropped toward $73K. In June, BTC dropped toward $60K.
Jeremy Grantham, the GMO co-founder who called both the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 housing collapse, branded Bitcoin (BTC) “a useless, speculative mechanism” and predicted it would dwindle over the next few decades.
The veteran strategist built his critique around three failures he sees in crypto. Bitcoin pays no yield, holds no stable value, and fails as a usable currency in daily life, he argued.
Proof of Work, Proof of Nothing
Grantham singled out Bitcoin’s proof-of-work design for particular scorn. The energy burned to validate transactions, he argued, generates no economic benefit for society.
“Proof of unnecessary work shouldn’t be worth a bucket of warm spit, and it will not be.”
He made a name for himself by making brave calls, and seeing around corners. Today Jeremy Grantham made a rare TV appearance on Squawk Box with a warning for investors. https://t.co/QNxCC0nioLpic.twitter.com/i5dpQRgV1Q
Beyond the mining critique, he said Bitcoin does not work as a practical currency. Regular users do not accept it at the supermarket, and serious investors do not settle large transactions with it. Without a functioning transaction layer, the asset cannot claim monetary legitimacy, he added.
He also dismissed Bitcoin as a store of value. Unlike equities, it pays no dividend and generates no cash flow. In his view, that leaves speculators with nothing to anchor a fair price.
A Skeptic With a Record
Grantham’s warnings carry weight because of his track record. He flagged the dot-com bubble before 2000 and warned of the US housing collapse before 2008. His more recent AI bubble stock warning extended that thesis to US equities, where he now sees downside of up to 70%.
However, his timing is not always precise. His 2021 epic-bubble call on US stocks arrived early, as markets climbed before their 2022 correction.
The Bitcoin remarks land as BTC trades near $60,500, down sharply from its late-2025 peak above $126,000. US spot Bitcoin ETF records outflows of $6.35 billion over 30 days through mid-June, reflecting cooling institutional demand.
Earlier, Coinbase CEO’s Bitcoin outlook has also flagged AI infrastructure costs as a variable reshaping crypto capital flows.
Bitcoin Price Chart in June 2026. Source: CoinGecko
Grantham is not alone in his skepticism. Peter Schiff has made similar bearish arguments, contending that Bitcoin holds no intrinsic value.
Whether Bitcoin’s current price holds key support in Q3 2026 will test both camps. Grantham predicted the decline would come gradually, over years or even decades, not all at once.
Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the lowest band of the Bitcoin rainbow chart, the zone the original model bluntly labeled “Bitcoin is dead.” The asset now trades near $62,500, roughly half its October record.
Statistician George Box once wrote, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Stock-to-flow has already crossed from useful to broken. The question now is whether the rainbow chart is heading the same way.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart
The rainbow chart plots Bitcoin’s price against a logarithmic regression band. Each colored band marks a sentiment zone. Red euphoria sits at the top, and deep value sits at the bottom.
The original version contains 10 bands. At its lowest, a purple strip carries the grim label “Bitcoin is dead.” Sliding into it has always signaled extreme pessimism.
A Reddit user first sketched the chart in 2014. A Bitcointalk contributor later paired it with logarithmic regression, which gave the bands their familiar shape.
For most of Bitcoin’s history, the gauge worked. Tops landed in the warm red bands, and bottoms landed in the cool blue and purple zones.
An updated version of Coinglass trims the model to nine bands. It drops the purple floor entirely, leaving “Fire sale!” as the bottom zone. Our explainer on the rainbow chart band model covers how these bands are built.
Today, Bitcoin sits below even that floor. Its live market price of about $62,500 has dropped through the “Fire sale!” band, outside the model’s defined range.
That has happened only once before, near the 2022 bear-market low. By one reading, the breach frames the current level as a rare deep-value entry point.
A deep-value reading assumes the model still works. Stock-to-flow shows why that assumption carries real risk.
The pseudonymous analyst PlanB introduced the stock-to-flow scarcity model in 2019. It tied Bitcoin’s price to its shrinking supply, with issuance halving after each halving.
For years, the fit looked convincing. Price oscillated around the model line through 2013, 2017, and 2021, which lent the framework real credibility.
Then it broke. After the 2024 halving, the model demanded roughly $500,000. Bitcoin instead peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, missing the target by about 75%.
PlanB pushed the projection further. He has suggested Bitcoin could near $5 million by the 2028 halving, a figure the current price makes hard to defend.
Critics point to a deeper flaw. The model tracks supply alone and ignores demand, the force that actually moves price during real market stress.
The stock-to-flow deflection chart measures price divided by the model’s value. For years, that ratio reverted toward one. Now it is collapsing toward zero.
A ratio grinding to zero means the error no longer corrects itself. The model now predicts a number that reality keeps ignoring, cycle after cycle.
George Box anticipated this outcome. A model can accurately describe the past and still fail to predict the future. Stock-to-flow has moved firmly into the wrong column.
Will the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Follow?
The rainbow chart shows early symptoms of the same illness. Its weakness appears at both ends of the range, not just the floor. Past peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 pushed into the red “sell” bands near the top.
This cycle’s high reached only the green “Accumulate” zone, far below previous levels.
So price keeps undershooting the upper bands while now breaking the lower one. The band structure that once contained Bitcoin no longer holds it on either side.
Both models lean on relentless exponential growth. Yet Bitcoin is now a $1.25 trillion asset, and very large numbers compound more slowly over time.
That maturing growth curve is exactly what an aging exponential model fails to capture. The chart assumes tomorrow will look like the early years, and it may not.
This shift has a name among analysts. Many now favor a power-law view, where Bitcoin keeps rising but at a steadily slowing pace. A genuine recovery would pull the price back inside the bands and quiet the doubts. A long drift below them would suggest the model is breaking in real time.
Trading near $62,500, down about 3% on the day and 50% below its record, Bitcoin is clearly not dead. The model that was named that band might be.
Whether the rainbow chart joins Stock-to-Flow in retirement, or its longer-term price forecast still holds, is the question the next cycle will answer.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to steady itself after a shaky start to the week. After dipping briefly toward the key $70,000 support level on Sunday, BTC has since bounced back and is now trading above $72,000 on Monday.
However, the next move may depend less on internal crypto dynamics and more on the escalating geopolitical backdrop of tensions between the United States and Iran, and the events that unfold in the days ahead.
$100,000 Bitcoin By Year-End
In a new report, market analyst Sam Daodu argues that Bitcoin’s direction is closely tied to how the conflict unfolds. Rather than pointing to a single likely outcome, Daodu lays out three scenarios, each with a different implication for oil prices, investor sentiment, and ultimately BTC price action.
In Daodu’s bullish scenario, a full peace deal would shift the outlook for both geopolitics and commodities. He suggests oil prices would retreat back toward pre-war levels, roughly in the $65 to $70 per barrel range.
Daodu says that if that happens, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 by year-end, which would translate to a 39% price increase from current trading levels.
April 15 Agreement Expectations
The base case is more cautious and revolves around what could happen around April 15. Daodu’s view is that if the talks scheduled for that period lead to a new agreement, oil prices might drop below $95 again, similar to what happened after the first ceasefire was announced last week.
Daodu also points to a specific positioning factor: there are reportedly about $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 right now. If oil prices fall quickly and risk sentiment improves fast, those short positions could unwind, triggering a squeeze. That could help drive Bitcoin higher between $75,000 to $80,000.
Bear Path For BTC
The bearish scenario centers on the ceasefire failing—either because it breaks apart completely or because it expires without a workable outcome.
Daodu notes that the two-week ceasefire is already under strain. With talks having collapsed and a blockade being announced, the agreement is described as “hanging by a thread.”
If negotiations fail and oil prices rise above $110 to $120, Daodu says Bitcoin would likely lose the $70,000 support level. From there, the downside path could accelerate, with BTC potentially sliding toward $65,000. If the crisis drags on, he adds that prices could fall further toward $55,000 to $60,000.
Even with these three paths laid out, Daodu’s conclusion is that the base prediction is the most realistic outcome at the moment. In his assessment, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound until the next round of talks produces something tangible.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
