Bitcoin is stuck near $65,000, and trader Wise Crypto thinks AI spending is a big part of why.
The OG crypto poked above $66,000 earlier this week before losing steam, and the pattern points to money chasing AI stocks instead of crypto while inflation and bond yields keep pressure on risk assets.
Where the Money Is Actually Going
Wise Crypto laid out the case on X Thursday, noting that while spot Bitcoin ETFs have had seven consecutive days of inflows that have raked in just under $1 billion, the number was a small one next to the $6.9 billion that left those same funds in May and June.
Meanwhile, Big Tech is spending somewhere between $190 billion and $205 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with Nvidia’s data center revenue up 92% year over year, and AI-linked stocks have climbed roughly 69% since January. Bitcoin, over that same stretch, is down about 25%.
“Capital is flowing to AI, not crypto,” Wise Crypto wrote, pointing to two-year Treasury yields near 4.3% and ten-year yields near 4.6% as the forces keeping the dollar strong and investors cautious on risk assets.
The price data backs up the stall, as BTC was trading around $65,400 at the time of writing, down 0.6% on the day, after swinging between about $65,300 and $66,300 in the last 24 hours and between $62,500 and $66,900 over the past week. It is still up close to 5% across 30 days but sits roughly 45% below its all-time-high near $126,000 from last October.
Another market watcher, Ted Pillows, writing in his Thursday market report, pointed to Brent crude being near $94 a barrel after another round of US-Iran strikes, along with a ten-year TIPS real yield of about 2.31%, a post-pandemic high, as the direct drag on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin right now.
“I’d rather watch $64,000 get defended than chase a run back toward $66,500,” he said.
The Technical Levels Traders Are Watching
Michaël van de Poppe has said Bitcoin has already reached its target area, and that holding above the 21-day moving average keeps the door open for near-term gains, with $68,000 marking the next resistance zone and a break above it potentially opening a run to $73,000.
Fellow analyst Axel Adler noted that ETFs have taken in $439 million so far this week, while the so-called Coinbase discount, running for 78 days now, has started to narrow.
Further out, EGRAG CRYPTO flagged a developing double bottom pattern that would need a weekly close above $83,000 to gain traction, with $173,000 the eventual target if the setup plays out, though a weekly close below roughly $51,000 would invalidate it.
A similar reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300 was pointed to by Bitfinex analysts, who also noted that short-term holders who bought in that range tend to sell once they recover their original positions, a pattern that has capped rallies before and could do so again if $68,000 comes back into play.
Donald Trump delivered three major policy shocks between July 6 and July 11. He declared the Iran ceasefire over, sending Brent crude oil up 5.2%. The POTUS also ordered a halt to trade with Spain, pushing Spain’s stock market index IBEX 35 down 2.6%.
Trump said the interim agreement with Iran was “over” after renewed attacks on commercial ships and US facilities in the Gulf. American forces then launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets.
Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent settled 5.2% higher, while WTI gained 4.4% and reached a two-week high. The S&P 500 and Dow closed lower, while the STOXX 600 recorded its steepest decline since March.
The surge in oil also pushed Treasury yields higher as investors priced in greater inflation risk. Higher fuel costs could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
However, Trump later said the US would continue talks with Iran and played down the prospect of another full-scale war.
Oil just went through one of its most volatile months in years.
The reason is the US-Iran war, which restarted in February after everyone assumed it had ended with last year’s ceasefire.
Since then, oil has swung from $58 to $119 and back down to $71, driven almost entirely by… pic.twitter.com/qtk4mxom6U
Markets will now focus on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around one-fifth of global oil supply.
Spain Trade Threat Hits Stocks and Bonds
Trump also ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to halt trade and visits with Spain. He accused Madrid of failing to spend enough on defence and obstructing the US campaign against Iran.
Spanish markets fell sharply after the comments. The IBEX 35 lost 2.6%, making it Europe’s worst-performing major index that day.
IBEX 35 is Spain’s Benchmark Stock Market Index in Madrid. Source: Yahoo Finance
Santander shares dropped 4.3%, BBVA fell 3% and Zara owner Inditex declined 3.6%. Spain’s 10-year government bond yield rose nine basis points as investors demanded a higher return for holding its debt.
It remains unclear whether Trump can impose a complete bilateral embargo. The European Union handles trade policy for its members, and US-Spain commerce has continued despite earlier threats.
Still, prolonged uncertainty could weigh on Spanish banks, exporters, airlines and tourism companies.
BREAKING: President Trump says the US is “cutting off all trade with Spain.”
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 8, 2026
Trump Hardens His Position on Russia
Trump made a significant shift on Ukraine during the NATO summit in Ankara. He said the US would license Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air-defence systems, technology Kyiv has requested for years.
Days later, US senators announced an agreement with the Trump administration to advance tougher sanctions against Russia. The legislation could target countries that continue buying Russian oil and gas.
Markets have yet to show a clear reaction because Congress has not approved the final bill. Its impact will depend on the sanctions, exemptions and enforcement measures included in the final text.
President Trump said Wednesday the U.S. will give Ukraine a production license to build its own Patriot missile interceptors for defense, granting a major request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid the ongoing war with Russia. pic.twitter.com/BkG2GIOCRq
Strong secondary sanctions could disrupt Russian oil flows to China, India and Turkey. That would place further pressure on energy prices while increasing demand for alternative supplies.
Meanwhile, the Patriot decision could support defence manufacturers and suppliers. It also signals that Washington may apply greater military and economic pressure on Moscow.
Bitcoin’s latest retreat below $80,000 shows how quickly the bond market has reclaimed control of crypto trading, even after lawmakers advanced one of the industry’s most closely watched regulatory bills.
Data from CryptoSlate showed that the top asset was trading at $79,083 as of press time, down more than 3% after another failed attempt to hold above $82,000.
Blockchain analytical firm Santiment attributed the reversal to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” market reaction to the Senate Banking Committee’s approval of the CLARITY Act. This was a policy milestone that would typically improve sentiment across digital assets by moving market-structure legislation closer to a full Senate vote.
However, the rally attempt faded as traders shifted their focus back to Treasurys.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.5% for the first time since June 2025, while the 30-year yield climbed toward 5.1%. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research said the long bond was only 8 basis points away from a fresh 19-year high.
US 30-Year Yield (Source: Bianco Research)
That move has raised the return threshold for Bitcoin exposure. Higher yields make cash, bills, and longer-dated government debt more competitive, while BTC is trying to recover a key technical level.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, told CryptoSlate that rising yields are narrowing the compensation investors receive for holding assets such as Bitcoin.
According to him:
“The 10-year Treasury yield pressing toward multi-month highs is compressing the risk premium available to assets like BTC, which remain structurally sensitive to the real rate environment. At current levels, the cost of holding zero-yield assets rises meaningfully when alternatives offer 4.5% risk-free.”
The result is a market where crypto-specific progress is no longer enough to carry price action on its own. Washington has improved the industry’s policy outlook, but the rates market is setting the near-term allocation decision.
ETF outflows show where the rate pressure is landing
SoSoValue data show the funds were on pace for more than $700 million in weekly outflows, the largest weekly retreat since late January. The pullback removes a key source of spot demand as Bitcoin tries to reclaim the $82,000 area and move back above its 200-day moving average.
The ETF channel has become central to Bitcoin’s market structure since the funds began trading, providing institutions with a regulated, liquid way to add exposure. When those flows weaken, the spot market loses one of the clearest sources of marginal demand.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CryptoSlate that higher yields have made institutional buyers more selective because government debt now offers a stronger return profile.
She said:
“Rising US Treasury yields are acting as a clear macro headwind for Bitcoin. As yields move higher, the relative appeal of government debt improves, raising the opportunity cost of holding a volatile, non-yielding asset like BTC.”
Moreover, the weaker ETF picture is being reinforced by on-chain spot-flow data.
CryptoQuant data show that Cumulative Volume Delta has deteriorated across major venues after stronger readings in March. According to the firm, monthly averages of $50 million on Binance and $30 million on Coinbase have slipped to about $6.5 million and $5.7 million, respectively.
Bitcoin Spot Net Volume Delta on Binance and Coinbase (Source: CryptoQuant)
The indicator also briefly turned negative on May 8, pointing to a weaker balance between buyers and sellers. That leaves Bitcoin trading around a major pivot zone, with thinner spot support than during the earlier phase of the rally.
Moreover, the macro backdrop has also become less supportive for risk assets. The unresolved conflict between Iran and the US has added uncertainty around growth and inflation, even after President Donald Trump initially suggested the conflict would last only a few weeks.
Bitcoin’s hedge case remains longer term
Despite this current market situation, the broader investment argument for Bitcoin has not disappeared.
Analysts at Bitunix told CryptoSlate that while the higher treasury yields can pressure BTC in the short term by draining liquidity and reducing speculative appetite, the same forces could strengthen the case for scarce, non-sovereign assets.
According to the firm, if investors are demanding greater compensation for US deficits, debt issuance, and inflation risk, Bitcoin’s fixed supply could continue to attract buyers looking for an asset outside the sovereign credit system.
However, that argument is more likely to influence long-term strategic allocation than short-term positioning.
For now, Bitcoin appears dependent on two catalysts: a retreat in Treasury yields or a recovery in ETF inflows strong enough to absorb the rate shock.
Without either, price action could remain boxed between support in the upper $70,000s and resistance near $82,000.
Stablecoins and tokenized Treasurys draw cautious capital
In light of the current rate environment, crypto traders are repositioning their capital in the market.
Nansen’s Sondergaard said smart-money wallets have moved incrementally toward stablecoins over the past two weeks, showing a preference for flexibility over directional exposure.
This shift points to caution rather than a full exit from the market as the traders seek fresh market catalysts for their trades.
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, told CryptoSlate that the risk-free yields above 4% have become a direct competitor to non-yielding assets while strengthening demand for tokenized real-world assets.
Data from Token Terminal shows that tokenized US Treasurys have reached a record high of $15.35 billion in value, up from about $8.9 billion at the start of the year. This represents a 70% growth in under five months.
US Tokenized Treasury (Source: Token Terminal)
According to Kazmierczak, that growth shows capital is still moving through blockchain rails, but with a stronger preference for products tied to short-duration government debt. He added:
“BlackRock BUIDL, VanEck VBILL, Apollo ACRED, Hamilton Lane SCOPE, Franklin Templeton BENJI are all live in production today. Institutions get 4%+ yield with 24/7 settlement, programmable collateral, and composability with DeFi.”
This shift gives the current market cycle a different shape from earlier rate shocks.
Now, Bitcoin is absorbing pressure from a stronger bond market, while another corner of the crypto industry is expanding because that same bond market now offers yield worth tokenizing.
