Farside’s currently reported $137.3 million U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflow on Aug. 17 rested heavily on Fidelity, leaving the session short of a market-wide demand signal.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, or FBTC, supplied $111.9 million, equal to 81.5% of the displayed total, according to Farside’s live table. ARKB added $14.2 million and MSBT added $11.2 million. Those were the only three numeric inflows in the row; the remaining reported fund entries were 0.0.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, did not have a numeric entry. Farside displayed a dash, which its table visually distinguishes from 0.0 without providing a legend for the symbol. The current snapshot therefore did not establish a zero flow for IBIT, and the session total remains provisional.
Bitcoin ETF inflow recovered only 35.6% of prior outflow
The positive print followed a five-session net outflow of $385.2 million. Farside’s full flow history listed daily totals of negative $144.6 million, positive $7.8 million, negative $61.1 million, negative $131.1 million and negative $56.2 million from Aug. 10 through Aug. 14.
The Aug. 17 inflow recouped 35.6% of that loss. Across all six sessions, the funds still showed a cumulative $247.9 million net outflow.
Fund composition made the reversal less convincing than the positive headline number alone. FBTC provided more than four-fifths of the currently reported inflow, while ARKB and MSBT supplied the remainder. The unresolved IBIT cell also means the concentration ratio could change when Farside completes or revises the row.
Three positive fund entries can produce a positive aggregate without showing participation across the full group. A broader follow-through would require positive contributions from more products rather than another session dominated by one issuer.
The flow data do not identify who bought the ETFs. Institutions, advisers and retail accounts can all use the products, so the current table cannot support a claim that institutional demand broadly returned. It also does not establish that ETF flows caused a move in Bitcoin’s price.
A July CryptoSlate analysis documented a previous ETF recovery that was erased by the next reversal. That earlier episode does not predict the next flow, but it shows why one positive session offers limited evidence of durability.
The next completed Farside update will clarify both parts of the test: whether IBIT changes the Aug. 17 total and whether ETF flows broaden beyond Fidelity across subsequent sessions.
XRP has struggled to hold its ground in August and is facing renewed downside risk after slipping below the psychologically important $1 level.
Analysts are now warning that the crypto asset could have further room to fall before establishing a durable market bottom.
Battle Around $1 Intensifies
Crypto analyst Patel expects XRP to potentially decline another 20%-40%, which puts the projected macro accumulation zone between $0.85 and $0.65. The outlook comes after the token suffered a steep decline from its cycle peak. In fact, XRP is down by over 70% since July 2025.
Rather than viewing the current weakness as an immediate buying opportunity, Crypto Patel’s analysis points to the range as an area where macro accumulation could become more attractive if selling pressure intensifies.
Zooming in, however, one momentum indicator is beginning to stabilize. On the 4-hour RSI, another market watcher, Diana, noted that the indicator is holding around 42 and has moved slightly above its signal line near 41.8, while price remains largely flat and recent candles are becoming tighter rather than extending aggressively lower.
According to her, bulls would need XRP to move through $1.015, $1.05, and $1.081. A break above $1.081 would bring $1.145 and $1.20 into focus. On the downside, Diana said a decisive break below $1 with follow-through would put $0.906 and $0.861 back on the radar.
“If this is ACCUMULATION, XRP doesn’t need to explode immediately. It needs to keep absorbing the selling around $1 until buyers finally force a breakout.”
Wall Street’s Growing XRP Exposure
Despite the choppy price action, Wall Street is quietly loading up on XRP exchange-traded funds. CryptoPotato recently reported that several major financial firms reported exposure to these funds at the end of the second quarter.
For instance, Jane Street Group stood out with more than 1.2 million shares of the Bitwise XRP ETF, compared with just 20,605 shares at the end of the first quarter. The trading firm also held positions in XRP ETFs from Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and 21Shares.
Meanwhile, Bank of America reported 13,260 shares of the Volatility Shares XRP ETF, which is worth around $76,000. Morgan Stanley also disclosed holdings in three funds, including Franklin, REX-Osprey, and Bitwise products.
Other reported holders included Wolverine Asset Management, which has nearly 200,000 Bitwise shares, and Gallacher Capital Management, with 86,744 Capital XRP ETF shares. Main Street Group and National Bank of Canada also reported smaller positions related to the asset.
After two consecutive painful months in which they lost billions of dollars, the spot Bitcoin ETFs finally turned the page in July, but inflows were still modest.
Meanwhile, the exchange-traded funds tracking the performance of the largest altcoin enjoyed the month more, attracting over 2x more fresh capital.
Bitcoin ETFs in July
March and April were quite bullish for the spot BTC ETFs as the financial vehicles attracted well over $3 billion. However, the trend changed violently in May when they lost $2.43 billion. June became the worst month on record, as investors pulled out just over $4.5 billion. In total, the net outflows for May and June stood at nearly $7 billion, and the cumulative total flows dropped from over $58 billion to $51 billion.
July started more positively, with almost $200 million in net inflows during the first full week. Another $76 million followed during the second, and a more modest $34 million in the third. The trend was obvious as the initial high numbers gradually declined, aligning with the underlying asset’s controversial and sporadic price performance and ultimately leading to a very modest increase throughout the month.
The last week in July was once again in the red, with investors pulling $61.53 million out of the funds. Friday was the most painful day, as the total net outflows stood at over $265 million. As such, the month ended with $172.42 million. On one hand, green finally overcame the red wave, but on the other, the number was nowhere near enough to offset some of the recent losses.
ETH ETFs Do Better
The Ethereum ETFs entered July after a similarly painful two-month streak, in which they lost $541 million in May and another $529 million in June. However, investors were more persistent, and the actual net inflows for July were at a more respectable $365.17 million, thus outpacing the BTC ETF flows by over 2x.
Moreover, the ETH ETFs closed all four full weeks of July in the green, including the last one, which saw only one day in the red. Perhaps this investor behavior is among the reasons behind the underlying asset’s major resurgence in July. As reported earlier, ETH ended the month with a substantial 20% increase, making it the best in precisely a year.
All eyes are now on August, which hasn’t been ETH’s most favorable month historically, but there are some major double-digit exceptions.
Gold trades near $4,140 on Tuesday, down 26% from January’s record high of $5,598 per ounce. This gold price prediction for July 2026 examines why the metal keeps falling and where it could bottom.
Five fundamental forces continue to weigh on the metal. Meanwhile, the weekly and daily charts point to deeper downside targets.
Why is Gold Going Down?
Gold’s decline started with the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has blocked the waterway since late February, driving up energy prices worldwide. As a result, US inflation reached 4.2% in June, its highest level in three years.
That inflation spike flipped the Federal Reserve narrative. Markets no longer expect rate cuts and now lean the other way.
According to CME FedWatch data, traders are pricing a 47.1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in September. Another 11.1% expect a 50-basis-point move, so tightening odds total roughly 58%.
Higher rates hurt gold because the metal yields nothing. Therefore, every rise in hike expectations lifts the cost of holding it.
The second and third drivers reinforce the first. The Iran conflict strengthened the US dollar, and gold usually moves against it. In addition, progress on a US-Iran peace deal keeps draining the safe-haven premium built into January’s record.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors add a fourth layer of pressure. World Gold Council data shows gold ETFs lost 16 tonnes in May, with redemptions continuing into June. Around 298 tonnes of ETF gold are now in the red by nearly $4,000, which may cap any rallies.
The chart below captures that reversal in demand. Rolling 90-day flows peaked near $30 billion in late February. They have since fallen to between minus $5 billion and minus $10 billion.
Finally, investors have rotated back into technology stocks, pulling capital away from defensive assets.
However, the picture is not entirely one-sided. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes in the first quarter, above their five-year average.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also signaled no rush to raise rates after weak June jobs data. JPMorgan still sees $4,500 by the fourth quarter, while Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by year-end.
Five Key Factors Impacting Gold Price
Fundamental factor
Current reading
Impact on gold
Fed rate hike repricing
58% odds of a September hike (CME FedWatch)
Strongly bearish
Stronger dollar and yields
Dollar lifted by the Iran conflict
Bearish
Fading safe haven premium
US-Iran deal progress
Bearish
ETF outflows
16 tonnes out in May; 298 tonnes held at a loss
Bearish
Risk-on rotation
Capital moving into tech stocks
Bearish
Central bank buying
Net 244 tonnes in Q1 2026
Supportive
Weekly Chart Shows a Head and Shoulders Breakdown Risk
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since the January peak. On the weekly chart, that decline formed a head-and-shoulders pattern. The left shoulder was priced at around $4,500 in October 2025. The head marks the $5,598 record, and the right shoulder topped near $4,850 in April.
The pattern’s neckline rises from the November 2025 lows toward $4,200, and the price trades right at that line. If a weekly candle closes decisively below it, the measured target sits between $2,575 and $2,750.
That zone lies roughly 35% below current levels and remains the deepest bearish target for now.
Before that, the $3,300 to $3,400 area offers strong support. Gold accumulated there for four months in 2025 before its parabolic advance. A previous BeInCrypto gold prediction discussed a potential breakout that never materialized.
Momentum adds to the bearish case. For the first time since 2024, gold trades below its 20-week moving average. That average supported the entire uptrend. However, it rejected the recovery bounce in May and now slopes downward.
Gold Price Prediction Hinges on the $4,300 Resistance
The daily chart tells a similar story. Since the record high, gold has respected a declining parallel channel. The channel’s midline currently acts as temporary support near $4,141.
That midline has already failed twice, in February and in March. Each failure sent the price to the channel’s lower band. A third breakdown could repeat that path. By late summer, the lower band is expected to cross the $3,300 to $3,400 support zone, about 20% below the current price.
Resistance is clearly defined. The $4,300 to $4,400 zone supported gold from January until early June. It then flipped into resistance and rejected the mid-June recovery attempt.
The supertrend indicator has also remained red since the all-time high, a setup that BeInCrypto’s earlier channel analysis identified in a prior downtrend.
Two catalysts could decide July’s direction. The Fed releases its June meeting minutes this week, and September hike odds will move with each data print. Meanwhile, a signed US-Iran deal could cut energy prices and revive rate cut bets.
The July outlook, therefore, reduces to two levels. A daily close above $4,400 would break the channel and challenge the bearish structure.
In contrast, a weekly close below the neckline would trigger the head-and-shoulders target near $2,575.
Wall Street’s Bitcoin expectations have taken another hit. Citi has cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000, pointing to weaker investor appetite, negative ETF flows, and a slower regulatory backdrop in the United States.
The move is not just another forecast revision. It shows how much of the institutional Bitcoin thesis still depends on one input: whether spot ETFs can keep attracting fresh capital.
For more details, visit the official Reuters platform.
TL;DR
Citi lowered its Bitcoin target to $82,000 and cut its Ether forecast to $2,240. The bank also reportedly reduced its assumed net ETF inflows over the next 12 months to zero, down from a previous expectation of $10 billion. That is the real headline for crypto markets.
Price targets are easy to debate. Flow assumptions are harder to ignore.
Bitcoin’s ETF launch era gave the market a clear institutional demand story. For a while, that story helped support higher prices and stronger confidence. But when flows turn negative, the same structure works in reverse. Analysts do not simply mark down price targets because BTC fell. They mark them down because the demand model behind the price target has changed.
That is what Citi’s revision reflects.
The ETF Bid Is Being Repriced
The key issue is not whether Bitcoin can still trade above Citi’s target. It can. Crypto price targets are never guarantees. The more important point is that one of the market’s most widely followed demand channels has become less reliable.
ETF flows have been treated as the bridge between traditional portfolios and Bitcoin exposure. If those flows weaken, the market has to lean more heavily on native crypto demand, corporate treasury buyers, and long-term holders.
That can still be enough. But it makes the path more volatile.
Citi’s cut also lands at a moment when digital asset treasury companies are under closer scrutiny. If investors worry that treasury buyers may become sellers, the market’s confidence in institutional accumulation weakens further. That does not mean a wave of forced selling is inevitable, but it adds another layer of caution.
Why This Matters For Bitcoin Traders
For traders, the message is simple: Bitcoin needs a new catalyst or a repair in ETF flows.
A stronger macro backdrop could help. So could clearer US digital asset legislation, a return of ETF inflows, or renewed accumulation from long-term holders. Without one of those, the market may struggle to rebuild the same momentum it had when spot ETF demand was the dominant story.
That does not make Citi’s $82,000 target bearish in absolute terms. It is still above current prices. But it is a meaningful downgrade from the earlier view and shows that institutional expectations are being reset.
Bitcoin has survived plenty of forecast cuts before. The question now is whether the ETF market can stop being the reason analysts lower their numbers and start being the reason they raise them again.
This report is based on information from Reuters and Citi’s reported market forecasts.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
The last trading day of the previous business week finally brought some more net inflows rather than consistent outflows for the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
The products tracking the world’s largest altcoin had even more to celebrate at the end of the week, but still closed in the red.
The Good and the Bad: BTC ETF Edition
There’s no need to sugarcoat the end result – the week was still dominated by the bears. Investors pulling out funds from the spot Bitcoin ETFs withdrew $526.64 million throughout the four-day trading week. This means that the overall negative streak continues as the products have not seen a single green week in almost two months.
Within this timeframe, the total cumulative flows have dumped from $59.34 billion to $51.08 billion. July 1 saw the most daily withdrawals, with $294.62 million leaving the funds, according to SoSoValue data. Another $222.64 million went out on June 30 and $231.10 million on June 29. That’s all on the negative side.
The bright side was July 2. After 10 consecutive days of only net inflows, the streak was broken as investors poured in $221.72 million. Moreover, this was the highest single-day inflow recorded since May 5. Friday was a non-trading day due to the July 4 holiday, meaning that the week ended on a more positive note.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue
Ethereum ETF Edition
The daily performance of the financial vehicles tracking ETH was even more promising. The Ethereum ETFs saw more modest $30.04 million withdrawals on June 29 and $27.60 million on June 30. However, the tides turned during the next two business days.
Investors poured in $14.89 million on Wednesday and $29.08 million on Thursday, marking a near-monthly high. Nevertheless, the week still ended in the red, with total net outflows of $13.67 million. As such, the negative streak of the Ethereum ETFs continues, with eight straight weeks in the red. The total cumulative flows are down from $12.09 billion in early May to $10.89 billion on Thursday.
On the more positive side, though, it was a lot less harmful than the $273.34 million taken out during the previous business week.
Ethereum’s slide to its lowest level in more than a year is testing the Wall Street trade that brought the token deeper into institutional portfolios.
Data from CryptoSlate shows that the second-largest cryptocurrency fell to as low as $1,506 during the last 24 hours, its weakest level since April 2025, extending a broad crypto selloff that has already drained leverage from derivatives markets and pushed traders toward defensive positioning.
Crucially, the downswing is not confined to ETH’s spot market as the digital asset is also experiencing a broader deterioration across regulated ETF flows, centralized exchange deposits, and derivatives positioning.
This situation comes at a time when the broader crypto market sentiment has significantly weakened, with Bitcoin falling toward a four-month low near $60,000, while Ethereum has erased much of its market support.
ETF outflows weaken Ethereum’s institutional bid
The pressure has been most visible in the ETF market, where the products that gave institutions a regulated way to buy Ethereum have turned into a source of persistent outflows.
Data from SoSoValue shows that spot ETH ETFs have recorded four straight weeks of withdrawals totaling more than $870 million.
Ethereum ETFs Weekly Flows (Source: SoSoValue)
During that period, the funds posted a 17-day outflow streak interrupted by only one day of inflows, when investors added $19.3 million.
As a result, sosoValue data show total spot Ethereum ETF assets have declined more than 70% from their $30 billion peak to $8.71 billion, which is equal to about 4.01% of Ethereum’s circulating market capitalization.
The reversal has weakened one of the main arguments behind Ethereum’s institutional expansion. The ETFs were expected to broaden access to the asset, deepen liquidity, and give traditional investors a cleaner way to gain exposure without handling tokens directly.
However, that demand has softened as ETH’s price moved lower and investors have reduced risk across digital assets.
Exchange inflows add another supply risk
As institutional demand-side forces abated, the physical supply available on liquid trading platforms experienced a sudden and substantial expansion.
CryptoQuant data show Ethereum inflows to trading platforms climbed to about 2.24 million ETH in a single day, the highest level in four months. Binance accounted for more than 1.16 million ETH of those inflows, representing more than half of the total.
Ethereum Exchange Inflows (Source: CryptoQuant)
This surge in active supply can be seen in high-profile on-chain movements that served as glaring evidence of the liquidity migration.
Notably, a wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin awoke after more than three years of dormancy, mobilizing 80,001 ETH, valued at roughly $122 million.
The massive transfer epitomized the broader trend where long-inactive capital breaks from cold storage to seek out active trading venues and liquid architectures amid the mounting market stress.
Large inflows to trading platforms do not automatically mean investors are selling. They can reflect market-making activity, collateral movement, internal transfers, or portfolio restructuring during periods of stress.
However, traders watch the metric closely because coins held on exchanges are easier to sell or use in derivatives activity than coins sitting in private wallets.
The timing has made the increase harder to dismiss. Ethereum was already trading near $1,580 when the inflows accelerated, while Bitcoin had fallen toward $59,000. That combination suggested investors were moving assets during a marketwide reset rather than during a routine period of repositioning.
If exchange deposits remain elevated, the market could face additional short-term volatility.
Derivatives deleveraging deprives market of rebound capital
The velocity of the current crypto market decline has been accelerated by an extensive deleveraging cycle across leveraged futures platforms.
As spot valuations rapidly deteriorated, automated liquidation engines on major exchanges systematically closed out underwater long positions to protect clearinghouse integrity, amplifying organic selling pressure.
Data analyzed by Santiment illustrates that this liquidation wave effectively flushed out a massive block of speculative capital over a narrow four-day window:
Bitcoin Total Open Interest: Contracted by approximately 25%, dropping to $23.2 billion, which is its lowest operational aggregate since early April.
Ethereum Total Open Interest: Decreased by 13%, settling at $9.8 billion, a structural low point not seen since March.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Open Interest (Source: Santiment)
While this aggressive deleveraging leaves the underlying market structurally healthier by purging speculative excess and over-extended margin, it introduces an immediate liquidity vacuum.
The severe drop in open interest demonstrates that the speculative floor has thinned, leaving the market highly vulnerable to further spot pressure due to the lack of immediate leveraged capital available to front-run a classic V-shaped recovery.
Consequently, retail crowd sentiment has cratered to its most pessimistic footing since mid-February.
The firm noted that social metrics reveal an exponential increase in the phraseology of capitulation, with organic social discussions increasingly pairing terms like “Bitcoin” and “altcoins” alongside terminal descriptors such as “dead,” “finished,” “over,” and “ending.”
Traders hedge for a break below $1,500
The buildup of stress across ETFs, exchange flows, whale cost bases, and leveraged markets has shifted attention to ETH’s options market, where traders are paying more to protect against another leg lower.
Deribit data show demand for downside protection has increased sharply. The ETH options put-to-call premium rose to 3.7 times on Friday and has shown consistent excess demand for put options since Monday. Put contracts give holders the right to sell at a set price, making them a common hedge when traders expect further losses or want protection against a disorderly move.
ETH’s open interest has clustered around several downside strikes. Traders have built roughly $108 million in open interest around the $1,500 strike, while the $1,400 strike has attracted about $75 million. The $1,000 strike has drawn about $78 million in positioning.
Those levels do not mean the market expects ETH to fall to $1,000 immediately. Instead, they show that traders are paying for protection after several support signals weakened at the same time.
BlockScholes data show the shift has also appeared in volatility pricing. ETH short-dated implied volatility has jumped from a year-to-date low of 36% to 67%, signaling that traders now expect larger near-term price swings.
The move has been accompanied by a sharper skew toward out-of-the-money puts. The seven-day ETH options skew has moved to about -14%, compared with roughly -3% to -4% in late May. Additionally, the demand for puts has also spread across 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, and 90-day maturities.
That broadening shows traders are not just hedging a single event or one short-term move. They are preparing for the possibility that Ethereum’s weakness could extend if ETF outflows continue, exchange inflows stay elevated, and large holders remain below key cost levels.
The next test is whether $1,500 becomes a floor or a trigger. A stabilization in ETF flows and a decline in exchange deposits could help ease pressure.
Without that, the options market’s focus on downside strikes may become the clearest signal of where traders expect the next phase of the selloff to concentrate.
Bitcoin’s latest retreat below $80,000 shows how quickly the bond market has reclaimed control of crypto trading, even after lawmakers advanced one of the industry’s most closely watched regulatory bills.
Data from CryptoSlate showed that the top asset was trading at $79,083 as of press time, down more than 3% after another failed attempt to hold above $82,000.
Blockchain analytical firm Santiment attributed the reversal to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” market reaction to the Senate Banking Committee’s approval of the CLARITY Act. This was a policy milestone that would typically improve sentiment across digital assets by moving market-structure legislation closer to a full Senate vote.
However, the rally attempt faded as traders shifted their focus back to Treasurys.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.5% for the first time since June 2025, while the 30-year yield climbed toward 5.1%. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research said the long bond was only 8 basis points away from a fresh 19-year high.
US 30-Year Yield (Source: Bianco Research)
That move has raised the return threshold for Bitcoin exposure. Higher yields make cash, bills, and longer-dated government debt more competitive, while BTC is trying to recover a key technical level.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, told CryptoSlate that rising yields are narrowing the compensation investors receive for holding assets such as Bitcoin.
According to him:
“The 10-year Treasury yield pressing toward multi-month highs is compressing the risk premium available to assets like BTC, which remain structurally sensitive to the real rate environment. At current levels, the cost of holding zero-yield assets rises meaningfully when alternatives offer 4.5% risk-free.”
The result is a market where crypto-specific progress is no longer enough to carry price action on its own. Washington has improved the industry’s policy outlook, but the rates market is setting the near-term allocation decision.
ETF outflows show where the rate pressure is landing
SoSoValue data show the funds were on pace for more than $700 million in weekly outflows, the largest weekly retreat since late January. The pullback removes a key source of spot demand as Bitcoin tries to reclaim the $82,000 area and move back above its 200-day moving average.
The ETF channel has become central to Bitcoin’s market structure since the funds began trading, providing institutions with a regulated, liquid way to add exposure. When those flows weaken, the spot market loses one of the clearest sources of marginal demand.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CryptoSlate that higher yields have made institutional buyers more selective because government debt now offers a stronger return profile.
She said:
“Rising US Treasury yields are acting as a clear macro headwind for Bitcoin. As yields move higher, the relative appeal of government debt improves, raising the opportunity cost of holding a volatile, non-yielding asset like BTC.”
Moreover, the weaker ETF picture is being reinforced by on-chain spot-flow data.
CryptoQuant data show that Cumulative Volume Delta has deteriorated across major venues after stronger readings in March. According to the firm, monthly averages of $50 million on Binance and $30 million on Coinbase have slipped to about $6.5 million and $5.7 million, respectively.
Bitcoin Spot Net Volume Delta on Binance and Coinbase (Source: CryptoQuant)
The indicator also briefly turned negative on May 8, pointing to a weaker balance between buyers and sellers. That leaves Bitcoin trading around a major pivot zone, with thinner spot support than during the earlier phase of the rally.
Moreover, the macro backdrop has also become less supportive for risk assets. The unresolved conflict between Iran and the US has added uncertainty around growth and inflation, even after President Donald Trump initially suggested the conflict would last only a few weeks.
Bitcoin’s hedge case remains longer term
Despite this current market situation, the broader investment argument for Bitcoin has not disappeared.
Analysts at Bitunix told CryptoSlate that while the higher treasury yields can pressure BTC in the short term by draining liquidity and reducing speculative appetite, the same forces could strengthen the case for scarce, non-sovereign assets.
According to the firm, if investors are demanding greater compensation for US deficits, debt issuance, and inflation risk, Bitcoin’s fixed supply could continue to attract buyers looking for an asset outside the sovereign credit system.
However, that argument is more likely to influence long-term strategic allocation than short-term positioning.
For now, Bitcoin appears dependent on two catalysts: a retreat in Treasury yields or a recovery in ETF inflows strong enough to absorb the rate shock.
Without either, price action could remain boxed between support in the upper $70,000s and resistance near $82,000.
Stablecoins and tokenized Treasurys draw cautious capital
In light of the current rate environment, crypto traders are repositioning their capital in the market.
Nansen’s Sondergaard said smart-money wallets have moved incrementally toward stablecoins over the past two weeks, showing a preference for flexibility over directional exposure.
This shift points to caution rather than a full exit from the market as the traders seek fresh market catalysts for their trades.
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, told CryptoSlate that the risk-free yields above 4% have become a direct competitor to non-yielding assets while strengthening demand for tokenized real-world assets.
Data from Token Terminal shows that tokenized US Treasurys have reached a record high of $15.35 billion in value, up from about $8.9 billion at the start of the year. This represents a 70% growth in under five months.
US Tokenized Treasury (Source: Token Terminal)
According to Kazmierczak, that growth shows capital is still moving through blockchain rails, but with a stronger preference for products tied to short-duration government debt. He added:
“BlackRock BUIDL, VanEck VBILL, Apollo ACRED, Hamilton Lane SCOPE, Franklin Templeton BENJI are all live in production today. Institutions get 4%+ yield with 24/7 settlement, programmable collateral, and composability with DeFi.”
This shift gives the current market cycle a different shape from earlier rate shocks.
Now, Bitcoin is absorbing pressure from a stronger bond market, while another corner of the crypto industry is expanding because that same bond market now offers yield worth tokenizing.
The spot exchange-traded funds tracking the performance of Ripple’s cross-border token continue to dig new lows, as they just ended their first month in the red in March.
The landscape is even more worrying when we examine the details, while XRP is currently losing the battle for the fourth spot against BNB.
XRP ETFs Fall Short
After years of building anticipation, the first spot XRP ETF (Canary Capital’s XRPC) had a highly successful debut day, breaking the launch-day trading volume for 2025. Four more such products followed suit, and they attracted over $1 billion in about a month. Moreover, they didn’t have a single red day in terms of net flows for almost two months before that streak broke on January 7 – something that even the BTC and ETH ETFs couldn’t do.
In November and December, they gained $666.61 million and $500 million, respectively. The before-launch hype seemed justified. However, the following two months were more modest, perhaps driven by quickly escalating global tension. January recorded just $15.59 million in net inflows, while February saw $58.09 million.
The landscape worsened in March as the war-induced tension skyrocketed, oil prices soared, and uncertainty and doubt crept into all financial markets. Investors pulled out $31.16 million from the spot XRP ETFs, making it the first red month since their launch in November last year.
What’s even more concerning is the fact that there were multiple days with no reportable inflows at all. 8 out of the 22 trading days have $0.00 against them on SoSoValue, clearly showing disappearing demand.
Ripple (XRP) ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue
XRP in Danger
Amid this ongoing investor exodus from the ETFs, the underlying asset has expectedly underperformed, slipping by over 3% weekly. Moreover, XRP now stands inches below the coveted $1.30 support, which, if lost decisively, could lead to more profound corrections.
Popular analyst CW recently warned that a potential drop to $1.26 could trigger mass high-leverage long liquidations.
Fellow analyst CRYPTOWZRD noted that XRP had closed the previous daily candle indecisively and is “teasing the $1.32 intraday resistance.” If it remains below it, the analyst predicted more “weakness and short opportunities.”
