FIFA cleared United States striker Folarin Balogun to face Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16, suspending his automatic one-match ban. On Polymarket, odds that he would play jumped to about 97%.
The FIFA Disciplinary Committee invoked Article 27 of its code, placing the ban on a one-year probation instead of enforcing it. The move reversed a red card that many US fans called unfair.
Odds Balogun Will Play Against Belgium. Source: Polymarket
Why FIFA’s Article 27 Call on Balogun Was Rare
Balogun was sent off in the 64th minute of the USA’s 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 1. A VAR review flagged him for stepping on defender Tarik Muharemović’s ankle, ruling it serious foul play.
US Soccer had no way to appeal the automatic ban. Red cards at the World Cup almost never get reversed.
Article 27 gave the committee another route. It lets FIFA suspend a punishment on probation, so the ban applies only if Balogun reoffends within a year. FIFA set out the terms in its ruling.
“By operation of Article 27 FDC, the implementation of the automatic match suspension for USA player Folarin Balogun is suspended for a probationary period of one (1) year.”
FIFA used the same power weeks earlier on Cristiano Ronaldo. He was sent off in a World Cup qualifier, his first red card in 226 internationals. FIFA deferred two games of his three-match ban on probation, keeping him available for 2026.
The reprieve also moved crypto-based prediction markets, which have tracked lucrative World Cup trades all tournament.
Polymarket Jumps as Trump Hails the Balogun Ruling
Traders have priced everything from match outcomes to FIFA’s mystery halftime act. The World Cup has been a windfall for the sector. It pushed Polymarket to a record $10.8 billion in monthly volume in June, CNBC reported.
On Polymarket, Yes shares on Balogun playing Belgium sat near zero for days. They jumped to about 97% within hours of the ruling, on roughly $19,000 in volume.
Most contracts never get that busy. Roughly 70% of the platform’s closed prediction markets have traded under $10,000, and Balogun’s stayed dormant until the news gave traders something to price.
“Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!” President Donald Trump wrote, welcoming the outcome on Truth Social.
Several sports outlets reported that the White House called FIFA and asked President Gianni Infantino to review the card.
🚨 Exclusive: The White House made a direct call to FIFA to ask Gianni Infantino to review Folarin Balogun’s red card.
FIFA approached for comment and referred to the findings of its independent committee.
BeInCrypto could not verify whether this appeal happened.
However, FIFA pointed to its independent committee and said Article 27 gave the panel full authority, denying outside influence.
Balogun is the United States’ leading scorer with three goals. He is now free to face Belgium on Monday in Seattle, the side that ended the US run in 2014. The winner reaches a quarterfinal the Americans last saw in 2002.
The most profitable World Cup trade this month was not a Polymarket bet on Spain or France. It was a Tinder boom that helped lift Match Group (MTCH) stock.
The stock had slumped about 12% before the tournament began on June 11. It has since climbed roughly 13%, erasing those losses and pushing back near its highs for the year.
Match Group (MTCH) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView
Prediction Markets Grabbed the Headlines
Sports betting drove most of the World Cup money story. On Polymarket, the tournament winner market has drawn hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers, with Spain and France the narrow favorites.
Yet the smarter equity trade ran through dating apps. Match Group, the parent of Tinder and Hinge, watched its shares rebound as fresh engagement data reached investors.
Inside Tinder’s World Cup jump
Tinder logged its gains in the tournament’s first six days, from June 11 to 16. Compared with June 2025, US matches jumped almost 60%, while total users rose 15%.
JUST IN: The World Cup is causing a massive surge in Tinder activity, with matches up nearly 60% in the U.S.
Across the 16 host cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, activity from international fans climbed 47%, according to data reported by Fast Company. The figures track the influx of traveling supporters.
That timing mattered. The data circulated in late June, just as Match Group shares closed at $37.17 on June 26 after a 6.4% jump.
Match Group (MTCH) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance
The Quieter World Cup Trade
The rebound lands on a longer turnaround story. Tinder had shed users for nearly two years, drawing activist investors Elliott Investment Management and Starboard Value, who pushed for change and a new chief executive.
In March, Tinder registrations returned to year-over-year growth for the first time in almost two years, while Hinge revenue grew 28%. New CEO Spencer Rascoff framed the shift in the company’s first-quarter results.
Tinder works better today than it did before. Our product changes are resonating with Gen Z and driving improvements in leading indicators.
A World Cup engagement bump fits that narrative, which is why investors rewarded it. While bettors split their money between Polymarket and Kalshi, Match Group offered a calmer way to trade the same event.
Even so, the average analyst target sits near $40, a consensus Moderate Buy that leaves limited room above current levels.
The caution is in Match Group’s own numbers. Tinder paying users still fell 5% in the first quarter, so engagement has not yet become revenue.
With the final set for July 19, the test is whether the swiping outlasts the tournament. A few traders banked millions on Polymarket, but the cleaner bet was the stock.
The FIFA World Cup is always one of the hottest events for betting, but prediction markets are making this scene more explosive this year.
Who wins tonight? Who survives the group? Which favorite looks shaky? Which underdog has a real chance? While these are casual arguments for most football fans, crypto exchanges are turning them into monetizable user behavior.
That is why the 2026 World Cup has become a month-long attention engine, filled with live results, emotional swings, and daily predictions. Zoomex is one of the exchanges trying to plug into that rhythm through match predictions, trading tasks, rewards, and World Cup ticket access.
The campaign is less interesting as a one-off promotion and more useful as a sign of where exchange marketing is heading. Crypto firms are moving closer to live sport because sport already does what platforms want users to do: return daily, take a side, react quickly, and argue about the next outcome.
Prediction markets exceeds 2B in volume just for this World Cup. From people who knew one thing — a team, a trend, a trade — and backed themselves. You know something too. That is all it takes.
The 2026 World Cup gives platforms a bigger stage than usual. It is the largest edition in tournament history, with 48 teams, three host countries, and 104 matches. That means more fixtures, more upsets, and more reasons for fans to check back every day.
Pew Research found that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026.
Sports already drive much of that activity. Pew said sports accounted for 80% of Kalshi trading volume and 39% of Polymarket volume since July 2024.
So, football gives exchanges a simpler entry point than politics, macro data, or token prices. A match result is easy to understand. The uncertainty is the product.
Zoomex’s World Cup Prediction Campaign follows that logic. Users can predict match outcomes, group-stage results, knockout progress, finalists, and the eventual champion. The exchange is using football as a familiar doorway into prediction-style products.
Zoomex has also added a trading campaign built around volume-based tasks and rewards. Users can compete for USDT, vouchers, bonuses, and World Cup ticket packages. Some prizes include access to group-stage matches, semi-finals, and the final, depending on eligibility and campaign rules.
The ticket rewards give the campaign its sharper hook. World Cup access has become expensive this year. Reuters reported that face-value tickets for the 2026 final range from $2,030 to $6,370, a sharp jump from the 2022 final in Qatar.
That makes match access more powerful than a routine bonus. For a trader who also follows football, a World Cup ticket carries emotional weight. It turns a platform campaign into a possible real-world memory.
These campaigns usually come with KYC checks, trading-volume targets, reward caps, eligibility rules, risk-control reviews, and “up to” prize pools. Those details decide whether users see the campaign as useful or as another glossy exchange promotion.
Crypto Wants the Group Chat
The social layer is part of the strategy. Zoomex plans X Spaces with former footballers including Djibril Cissé, Didi Hamann, David James, Javier Mascherano, and Fernando Llorente. The goal is to keep the campaign inside football conversation, not just within the trading dashboards.
FIFA said the 2022 tournament generated 93.6 million social posts, with a cumulative reach of 262 billion and 5.95 billion engagements.
Crypto brands want a place inside that stream. They want the reply, the prediction, the share, and the return visit. During a World Cup, each match gives them a new reason to ask for one.
This is part of a longer sports push. Crypto companies spent heavily on sports sponsorships during the last bull cycle, using football, racing, and combat sports to reach people who did not spend their days on crypto Twitter.
The difference now is that campaigns are becoming more interactive. The brand no longer only wants visibility. It wants action.
The Hype Has Rules
The risk is that sports-themed campaigns can blur into aggressive user acquisition if the rules are unclear. Regulators are already watching crypto and trading links in sport more closely. The UK FCA recently warned football clubs about legal, money laundering, and reputational risks tied to unauthorised crypto and trading sponsors.
That does not make every campaign suspicious. It does mean execution is more critical than ever.
Zoomex has a timely idea because football predictions feel natural during the World Cup. The campaign will stand or fall on simpler questions. Are the rules clear? Are rewards distributed fairly? Does the prediction product work well? Does the football content feel real?
Overall, the bigger shift in the integration of crypto and sports events is already visible. The World Cup has become a live testing ground for crypto exchanges that want users to behave less like passive account holders and more like daily participants.
ADI Predictstreet, FIFA World Cup 2026’s official prediction market partner, has adopted Chainlink as its exclusive oracle infrastructure. FIFA already lists ADI Predictstreet as the official prediction market partner for the tournament.
The partnership places Chainlink at the center of an estimated $2.37 billion in US prediction market trading volume projected for the tournament, and splits the market with Polymarket and Kalshi already drawing billions in World Cup bets.
The Problem Polymarket and Kalshi Couldn’t Solve
While both Polymarket and Kalshi hold federal CFTC approval, state-level regulators have moved aggressively against both platforms.
Officials in at least 11 states have issued cease-and-desist orders targeting their sports event contracts.
Nevada secured a court ruling blocking both platforms from operating in the state. Massachusetts won a preliminary injunction against Kalshi.
Tennessee demanded that both platforms void open contracts and refund deposits. Arizona filed 20 criminal counts against Kalshi for illegal gambling.
What Chainlink Actually Does Here
Chainlink provides the oracle layer, writing real-world FIFA match results onto the blockchain, then triggering automated market creation, settlement, and payouts through the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE).
NEW: The Official Prediction Market Partner of the @FIFAWorldCup is now powered by Chainlink.@Predictstreet has adopted Chainlink as its exclusive oracle infra to enable accurate market resolutions & unlock instant payouts for the world’s largest sporting event with 6B+ fans. https://t.co/quyZIMBmzspic.twitter.com/hIbnFeECiV
This solves the manual resolution issue, which requires a human to confirm outcomes and settle positions, is slow and prone to disputes. By wiring official FIFA data directly into the settlement process, ADI Predictstreet removes that human bottleneck.
Dimitrios Psarrakis, CEO of ADI Predictstreet, pointed directly to this when explaining the choice. “Chainlink’s proven track record supporting large-scale markets made it a natural choice,” he said. “Through this integration, ADI Predictstreet can now provide transparent outcome resolution, efficient settlement, and fast payouts, establishing a new standard for how users engage with live sports prediction markets.”
A $2.37 Billion Moment for Chainlink
US prediction market volume alone is projected at $2.37 billion, according to research from Bookies.com. Kalshi is running 424 separate World Cup markets. Polymarket’s World Cup winner market crossed $1.9 billion in volume before the tournament even kicked off.
Polymarket World Cup winner prediction market cumulative trading volume exceeds $1.80 billion
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage kicks off, Polymarket’s World Cup champion prediction market has surpassed $1.8 billion in cumulative trading volume, with over $66 million
It remains to be seen what volume the official partner can bring in, but ADI Predictstreet’s official status puts it in a different category from other platforms for the duration of the tournament.
It uses FIFA’s data and branding, and a settlement layer that cannot be disputed after the final whistle.
Today, June 10, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) introduced its first proposed framework for prediction markets to determine which event contracts are in the public interest and those that violate federal law.
This move comes after President Donald Trump recently stated that it’s “critically important” that the CFTC holds exclusive oversight of the industry, thus creating a significant legal standoff with several state attorneys general who are working to protect their own authority over gambling regulations.
The chairman of the CFTC, Michael Selig, who is also the agency’s only sitting commissioner on what should be a five-member panel, said the proposal offers “a durable, transparent framework to identify the contracts Congress directed us to scrutinize while letting legitimate markets move forward,” according to the commission’s press release.
Which contracts are legal under the CFTC’s new rules
The CFTC’s proposed regulation focuses on Section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act. It is supposed to draw clear lines between categories of event contracts that the CFTC is authorized to ban.
Anything tied to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or unlawful conduct is on the no-fly list.
The agency proposed a three-step test to determine if a contract should be prohibited.
Does the contract reference a real or potential event?
Does it fall into any of its restricted categories?
Is the contract contrary to the public interest?
Instead of setting strict rules, the CFTC is proposing a flexible “balancing test” for prediction market contracts. The test involves weighing various factors like how useful the contract is for hedging risks, its ability to help discover market prices, and whether it might encourage illegal activity.
After the proposal is finalized, the CFTC will allow a 45-day window for public feedback when the rule is passed, and the rule will become official 60 days after its final adoption.
The CFTC also applied real-life scenarios of how it differentiates restricted and acceptable terms. For example, a contract based on crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz would not be filed under the “war” or “terrorism” categories because it does not violate the agency’s restrictions. That contract’s settlement is strictly tied to commercial activity rather than the conflict itself.
What does the government say?
The new framework is part of a larger ongoing conflict between federal and state authorities. Since April 2026, the CFTC has actively sued states like Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin to block their attempts to use local gambling laws to shut down prediction market platforms, according to Cryptopolitan. The tension got worse last month when Minnesota became the first state to criminalize these markets outright, as Governor Tim Walz officially imposed felony penalties on operators.
A coalition of 39 attorneys general, led by Nevada’s Aaron Ford and Ohio’s Dave Yost, filed an “amicus brief” supporting Massachusetts in its ongoing legal battle against Kalshi’s sports contracts.
According to Cryptopolitan, the coalition argued that these platforms were effectively unregulated gambling operations, stating that over $1 billion was wagered across 3.4 million sports-related bets between January and June 2025, with approximately 90% of that volume directly linked to sports outcomes.
In a May 27th Truth Social post, President Donald Trump identified several state officials, including Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker, as primary obstacles to federal oversight of prediction markets. “Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top,” he wrote.
Why the new proposal is causing disagreement
The new proposal is sparking debates over whether the agency’s actions are driven by genuine policy objectives or political influence. According to Cryptopolitan, Senator Elizabeth Warren issued a formal request to the CFTC on Monday for internal records, communications with industry firms, and details regarding recent personnel departures. Apparently, her inquiry was sparked by a 25% workforce reduction since January 2025 and a drop in enforcement actions from 58 in the 2024 fiscal year to 11 under the current administration.
Warren further intensified her scrutiny by flagging possible problems concerning conflicts of interest, specifically pointing out financial ties between the Trump family and firms regulated by the CFTC. According to a New York Times investigation cited in a Cryptopolitan report, these connections include a business partnership between Trump Media and Crypto.com, investments by Donald Trump Jr.’s firm (1789 Capital) into Polymarket, and the Winklevoss brothers’ financial support for American Bitcoin Corp, which was co-founded by Eric Trump.
According to Reuters, concerns regarding insider trading are further complicating the prediction market landscape as high-profile cases have surged in recent months. Notable examples include a U.S. Special Forces soldier betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro, George Santos wagering on his own attendance at the State of the Union, and a Google engineer accused of leveraging non-public search trend data for profit. Kalshi responded this week by implementing stricter oversight through requiring employment disclosures for traders in sensitive markets and reporting over 20 internal referrals to regulators during the first quarter of 2026, per Cryptopolitan.
The prediction market sector has grown from roughly $30.63 million in monthly trading volume in January 2025 to close to $479.5 billion in January 2026, according to DefiLlama. As of this week, the total value locked across prediction market protocols grew to roughly $500 million, with Kalshi and Polymarket accounting for the bulk of activity.
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Hyperliquid launched a prediction market this week tied directly to the May US CPI year-over-year reading.
Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a partnership with OKX to roll out oil futures contracts that never expire, putting ICE’s Brent and WTI benchmarks in a crypto product with 24/7 trading.
Polymarket, whose prediction markets have recorded nearly $39 billion in US volume so far in 2026, launched a suite of private-company contracts tied to valuation milestones at OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, and Anduril.
Collectively, these represent something much more systematic than just individual product launches: crypto exchanges are moving into tradfi. These three launches (and there’s bound to be more soon) are turning the macro calendar into a live retail trading product collateralized in stablecoins and available for trading around the clock.
Macro data as a consumer product
Prediction markets turn binary questions into prices: a contract might ask whether CPI lands above a specific threshold, or whether a private company reaches a set valuation by year-end. When a contract trades at 43 cents, the market’s expressing roughly a 43% probability for that outcome, with the usual caveats around liquidity, participant mix, and settlement rules.
Perpetual futures let traders maintain ongoing synthetic exposure to an asset or benchmark without a fixed expiry date, using funding payments to keep the contract price anchored near the underlying reference. In crypto, perps became the default instrument for leveraged Bitcoin exposure, and we’re now seeing that same design applied to macro assets long confined to institutional terminals and regulated commodity exchanges.
The OKX and ICE partnership shows just how far that application has traveled. ICE’s Brent and WTI benchmark prices will underpin these never-expiring contracts available across territories where OKX is already licensed to offer perpetual futures, giving OKX’s 120 million retail traders access to energy benchmark products that previously required a commodity brokerage account.
The announcement came as Hyperliquid’s oil perps were already generating roughly $1.6 billion in daily trading volume, a figure large enough to push CME and ICE to press US regulators to pay closer attention to these offshore exchanges.
Hyperliquid’s CPI market takes these even further. Inflation prints already move Bitcoin: traders watch the number, compare it with consensus expectations, then reprice the Fed path, the dollar, yields, equities, gold, and crypto in rapid sequence.
Hyperliquid launched the May CPI year-over-year market with contracts pricing roughly a 43% probability for a reading below 4.3%, settling against the BLS release on June 10. Trading volume at launch was modest, around $3,274.
However, the most interesting data point here is the design itself: crypto exchanges are testing whether official data releases can become reusable market templates, the same way Bitcoin perps became the default for nearly every other crypto derivative.
Polymarket’s private-company expansion addresses a different market gap: most of the world’s most valuable companies can’t be traded by retail investors.
The platform launched 23 markets in its first batch, covering contracts on whether OpenAI surpasses a $1 trillion valuation by year-end, whether Anthropic exceeds $500 billion, and whether SpaceX completes an IPO before 2027, all resolved against Nasdaq Private Market data. Traders have priced Anthropic at roughly 90% probability of hitting $1 trillion by December 31, 2026, and OpenAI at 76% odds of reaching $900 billion by the same date.
These are event-based contracts structured around whether an outcome occurs, with Nasdaq Private Market making the underlying valuation data publicly available for free as part of the deal, creating a real-time probability layer on companies that have raised tens of billions without a single public filing.
When the regulatory framework hasn’t caught up with crypto
We’re now seeing product development running laps around the legal architecture, and it’s creating friction across multiple jurisdictions. The CFTC sued Minnesota this month after the state passed the first explicit statutory ban on prediction markets, criminalizing their operation as a felony under state law.
The CFTC called it the most aggressive state-level incursion into federally regulated markets in the agency’s history. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the law would turn lawful crypto operators into felons overnight, while Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison countered that prediction markets prey on young people and low-income communities.
The question everyone is trying to answer is whether these markets are derivative products governed by federal law or consumer-facing gambling products subject to state regulation, and courts are working through it across at least six states simultaneously.
Europe also found itself facing the same question, but it seems to have gotten there by a different route. Spain’s Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi this week, citing the absence of mandatory gambling licenses and opening a formal investigation expected to run three to four months. The regulator said that identity-verification systems were missing and there were insufficient controls for minors.
Spain, like most European jurisdictions, treats placing bets on uncertain future outcomes as gambling, making the financial-market and gambling-law frameworks equally plausible classification tools, depending on which ministry is looking. The same crypto product is a regulated derivatives instrument in one country and an unlicensed gambling service in the next.
Market integrity is a separate concern that only compounds as these markets get larger. CPI and Fed decisions have fixed release times and official sources, which keep settlement nice and clean, but private-company valuations, geopolitical events, and corporate milestones are considerably harder to adjudicate.
The more markets depend on external data sources, the more consequential it becomes to know who holds the relevant information first.
Bubblemaps analysts identified a cluster of 80 bets on Polymarket tied to US military actions against Iran with a 98% win rate, a figure they called statistically impossible to explain through luck, raising the possibility that prediction markets could become the venue where sensitive information finds a price before it finds itself in a headline.
The weekend-pricing issue is also pretty underappreciated by observers focused on the legal battles.
Crypto exchanges are already the de facto weekend reference price for macro assets, a role they’ve accumulated through circumstance well before any regulator designated them to do it. The same product that offers a faster way to express a view on inflation or oil can look, depending on who’s using it and where, like a retail speculation engine with macro branding.
Crypto turned tokens into 24/7 global assets, and the version forming now is attempting the same for events, data releases, benchmarks, and private-company valuations. Whether the result is better forecasting, a new hedging layer, or a faster route to consumer harm is a question regulators in at least five countries are actively trying to answer, and the products are scaling faster than the answers.
Investors are speculating about when the official announcement may be made because the company behind ChatGPT appears to be preparing for a stock market debut.
As early as Friday, OpenAI may discreetly submit draft filings for an IPO, as per some sources.
According to reports, the corporation, which is presently valued by private investors at over $850 billion, has engaged Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to help with the IPO preparations.
The file might be made in the upcoming days or weeks, according to the unidentified source.
Legal obstacles cleared, timeline accelerates
The artificial intelligence firm hasn’t publicly confirmed any specific dates.
In a statement, OpenAI said it “regularly evaluates strategic options” while staying focused on current business priorities.
But internal preparations have been underway to potentially launch the offering during the final three months of this year.
The move forward comes just two days after a federal judge threw out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against the company. Musk had sought $150 billion in damages and wanted to stop OpenAI from converting to a for-profit structure.
Getting this legal matter resolved appears to have cleared a significant roadblock and may have encouraged company leadership to move faster.
OpenAI might attract less concentrated attention while communicating with investors by submitting around the same time as SpaceX.
In what may become one of the largest market listings ever, money managers will now have to consider both well-known corporations.
Traders bet heavily on 2026 announcement
Reports of the possible filing quickly fueled activity in prediction markets.
On Kalshi, traders sharply increased the chances of OpenAI going public before its rival Anthropic.
On the prediction market platform, confidence in OpenAI continued to rise sharply, with traders assigning the company an estimated 84% to 85% chance of going public ahead of its rivals.
In contrast, contracts tied to Anthropic on Polymarket remained much lower at roughly 22%, reflecting significantly less optimism about the Amazon- and Google-supported startup moving toward an IPO in the near term.
The widening gap between the two businesses’ odds suggests that investors are becoming more confident in OpenAI’s aggressive efforts to capitalize on the generative AI industry’s explosive growth and the robust demand for high-profile technology stock offerings.
Because many investors now anticipate a significant announcement within the next year, trading activity on prediction platforms has increased significantly.
The likelihood of an IPO-related announcement by 2026 has increased to 88%, according to Kalshi.
Data from Kalshi reveals spiking trader confidence for an upcoming OpenAI IPO
According to Polymarket, OpenAI has a 73% chance of formally going public by the end of 2026.
Looking at more specific timeframes, traders think the formal announcement will most likely arrive during late summer or autumn months.
Polymarket shows a 72% probability that OpenAI will launch its IPO by December 31, 2026.
Kalshi markets currently price an announcement before November at 81%, with bets specifically on before November 1 at 78%.
The odds drop to 60% for an announcement before October and 38% for before September, although two sources indicate OpenAI aims to complete the process as early as September.
Furthermore, competitors are under increased pressure as a result of these reports.
Prediction market participants, however, don’t seem to believe Anthropic will go public anytime soon.
According to reports, Anthropic is talking with investors to obtain capital at a valuation of approximately $900 billion, which might exceed OpenAI’s current private valuation.
The corporation reported that its annualized revenue had surpassed $30 billion in April.
Despite those numbers, there has been a noticeable change in market attitude due to recent revelations concerning confidential IPO filings; many traders now anticipate that OpenAI will reach Wall Street before its competitor.
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Anthropic leads OpenAI with a 69% chance to IPO first on Polymarket
Other cryptocurrency sites are also launching similar products.
Earlier this month, TradeXYZ on Hyperliquid introduced pre-IPO futures for companies like Cerebras and SpaceX, giving traders another chance to bet on high-profile private companies before they go public.
Partnership focuses on data integrity and market resolution
Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, stated that the launch provides access to a part of the financial markets that ordinary investors have long been barred from, allowing people to engage directly with the decisions that form the value of significant private companies for the first time.
In addition to giving institutional investors a fresh measure of market sentiment to complement the current transaction data used across the financial sector, it allows consumers to speculate on verified outcomes involving private businesses.
Polymarket has continued its rapid expansion, with new markets hitting record highs every month over the past year.
In 2026 so far, users in the United States have placed about $39 billion in wagers on the platform.
The agreement, according to Tom Callahan, CEO of Nasdaq Private Market, expands access to a broader set of market participants while reinforcing the company’s focus on accurate data to ensure fair and reliable market outcomes.
SpaceX IPO could dominate market
However, the launch coincides with a challenging period for businesses preparing to go public.
The performance of new stocks varied wildly last year.
On its first day, Navan fell 20% while Figma increased 250%. At year’s end, Gemini had dropped 65%, while Circle had increased 156%.
Wall Street analysts believe SpaceX’s IPO will dominate the market and outshine rival listings.
Samuel Kerr, who handles equity capital markets globally at Mergermarket, called the potential $75 billion SpaceX offering “otherworldly.”
It would considerably outperform recent IPOs such as Cerebras Systems, which was valued at almost $95 billion last week.
“There’s a possibility it could be a negative for the whole global IPO market,” Kerr told CNBC on Tuesday. The deal might “really suck all the oxygen out the room for anybody else. Everybody’s eyes are going to be on SpaceX.”
With so much money flowing into one stock, “almost nothing’s going to want to be in the market at the same time,” he added.
Salman Ahmed, the Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, said that such large-scale listings could temporarily redirect capital away from the broader stock market.
“They’ll have to suck in a lot of capital from the system,” Ahmed said, “and that’s why I think there’s another reason we have to be careful about the winners right now, because that’s where the capital is going to be pulled from to finance these mega IPOs.”
Prediction markets processed more than $44 billion in wagers last year, but regulators say many of the top-performing participants are now automated trading bots rather than humans.
On Polymarket, automated bots now run more than 30% of active accounts. Data from the platform’s top earners shows that 14 of the top 20 accounts are controlled by bots.
More than 37% of these automated accounts consistently.
Lawmakers target insider trading risks
Polymarket trading activity fell 8.9% in April for the first time since August, as competitors gained market share.
According to Dune Analytics, the platform and its US operation registered $10.2 billion in bets in April, a decrease from $11.2 billion the previous month.
Meanwhile, rival platform Kalshi saw volume jump 13% to reach $14.8 billion in April.
The decrease occurred as Polymarket tried to rebuild its US footprint while under increased scrutiny from politicians concerned about insider trading.
Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in March, along with more than 40 other members of Congress.
They wanted laws that would ban government officials from profiting from secret material on these platforms.
“The CFTC maintains that event contracts are a type of swap subject to its jurisdiction, and, therefore, it should ensure that federal employees understand existing restrictions on prediction market insider trading,” the lawmakers said.
Several Polymarket users have drawn suspicion for placing winning bets on sensitive world events, including military actions in Venezuela and potential conflict with Iran.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig told reporters that the agency utilizes AI tools to examine trade patterns, detect anomalous conduct, and collaborates with blockchain tracking businesses like Chainalysis to monitor offshore platforms such as Polymarket.
According to an AIMPACT update dated May 15, the CFTC uses AI to scan vast volumes of trading data, assisting staff in identifying suspect accounts and deciding whether to initiate investigations or issue subpoenas.
The business is combining blockchain analytics tools with market anomaly detection technologies to monitor both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets.
The CFTC has received many allegations of odd trading and is actively looking into “hundreds to thousands” of potential cases. Future enforcement efforts are likely to broaden.
Selig stated that the agency will take action against U.S. users who attempt to mask their location by utilizing VPNs to access prohibited services.
That enforcement applies to worldwide marketplaces.
Even while platforms like Polymarket operate outside of the United States and lack U.S. licenses, the CFTC said it will seek enforcement against cross-border trades involving Americans and may utilize extraterritorial authority if necessary.
Platforms are reacting to the demand.
Polymarket and Kalshi have improved their checks for insider trading and market manipulation, bringing in external blockchain data providers to meet regulatory requirements.
The CFTC offered prediction market platforms some regulatory relief on Wednesday, issuing a no-action letter that exempts them from certain swap reporting requirements.
The exemption applies to exchanges and clearinghouses that handle event contracts.
Agency staff said they would not pursue enforcement against platforms that skip those reporting rules, following requests from companies seeking clarity on how event contracts should be regulated.
Although event contracts are officially classed as swaps since they have yes-or-no outcomes, the CFTC believes they work more like futures and options due to their uniform terms and exchange trading.
According to the new guidance, firms can report these transactions directly to the Commission in a manner similar to futures and options markets.
The relief now applies to 19 firms, including Polymarket US, Kalshi, Gemini Titan, and Bitnomial. Other companies listing event contracts may request coverage on the same terms.
Top prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are rushing to offer highly leveraged crypto derivatives at the exact moment state and federal authorities are clashing in court over whether the industry’s core products constitute illegal betting or legitimate financial instruments.
Over the past year, these companies have gained national prominence by facilitating wagers on discrete, real-world occurrences, ranging from political races to macroeconomic data releases.
Now, by preparing to list perpetual futures, which are complex contracts that never expire and allow traders to multiply their market exposure using borrowed funds, these platforms are blurring the line between niche forecasting hubs and full-service digital asset exchanges.
Against this backdrop, this shift drastically expands their potential customer base, but it also amplifies the legal risks associated with the platforms.
Historically, platforms like Kalshi operated on a cyclical, event-driven basis, with traffic and trading volume spiking around major catalysts such as a presidential debate or a championship sporting event and then plummeting once the outcome was settled.
In this kind of market, a user purchased a binary “Yes” or “No” share, and the contract expired upon the event’s resolution.
Perpetual futures fundamentally alter that business model. Because these derivatives lack an expiration date, participants can maintain their market positions indefinitely, provided they meet ongoing margin requirements.
The instruments frequently allow users to leverage their bets up to 50 times their initial capital, attracting aggressive speculators seeking rapid returns from minute price fluctuations.
By rolling out these derivatives, Polymarket and Kalshi are abandoning their siloed event-contract operations to compete directly with centralized exchanges and retail brokerages. The underlying strategy for both platforms is to convert occasional political bettors into daily, high-frequency traders.
While Kalshi has explicitly stated its intention to enter the perpetuals arena, Polymarket’s exact roadmap remains guarded, including which specific assets it will cover and whether it will restrict access for US customers.
Why prediction markets are moving into perpetual futures
Why perps, why now?
The motivation to embrace this new feature comes down to basic market structure.
Traditional crypto spot trading, which is the simple buying and holding of digital assets, has decelerated from the frenzied peaks of previous market cycles, logging $18.6 trillion in volume last year.
Meanwhile, perpetual futures generated more than three times that amount. Data from CryptoQuant show that the global trading volume for crypto perpetual futures hit $61.7 trillion last year.
That volume disparity dictates corporate strategy. Platforms recognize that to maintain engagement during periods of low volatility, they must offer instruments that allow users to short the market, hedge portfolios, and employ leverage.
While prediction markets currently command significant capital, with all-time notional volume surpassing $150 billion, the episodic nature of event contracts cannot match the continuous, around-the-clock fee generation of a highly active derivatives order book.
Moreover, the broader financial technology sector is experiencing a rapid collapse of operational boundaries, with centralized platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini all embracing event-based offerings.
Mo Shaikh, co-founder of the Aptos blockchain network, noted that financial applications have historically trended toward consolidation, citing the expansions of legacy platforms like PayPal. However, he warned that forcing disparate user bases into a single application rarely succeeds seamlessly.
“The trader, the bettor, the long-term investor, the payments user, they show up for different reasons,” Shaikh said, adding that true value lies in controlling the underlying infrastructure. “Clearing, liquidity, identity, settlement, data, those layers can unify even if the frontends remain fragmented.”
Meanwhile, the shift among prediction market players is partially defensive.
Offshore decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, a dominant force in perpetual futures, recently encroached on the prediction sector by revealing plans to list its own event contracts.
As a result, the market is split on who holds the strategic advantage in the ensuing turf war.
Jiani Chen, a growth officer with the Solana Foundation, noted the technical disparities, arguing that decentralized derivatives exchanges have a much easier time adding prediction markets to their backend than prediction platforms do spinning up complex futures trading engines.
However, Kyle Samani, chairman of Forward Industries, dismissed the technical hurdles, arguing that customer acquisition is the true bottleneck for digital asset platforms. He said:
“It’s way harder to bootstrap liquidity and acquire normie users for prediction markets. Kalshi perps are going to crush.”
The legal fight is still about who gets to call it gambling
Legal battle over prediction markets
The aggressive product expansion coincides with an existential legal threat as state regulators are launching coordinated efforts to classify the prediction platforms as unlicensed casinos, rejecting the premise that event contracts are sophisticated financial tools.
On April 21, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed sweeping lawsuits against digital asset firms Coinbase and Gemini, demanding $3.4 billion in combined penalties and restitution.
James alleged the companies bypass state taxes and consumer protection laws by offering prediction markets to retail users, including minors.
State officials pointed to research by the National Institutes of Health linking early exposure to mobile betting with heightened risks of anxiety and financial distress, while noting American Psychological Association data showing severe mental health risks associated with gambling disorders.
James said:
“Gambling by another name is still gambling, and it is not exempt from regulation under our state laws and Constitution.”
The industry firmly rejects the gambling label, countering that the contracts are vital instruments for hedging geopolitical and economic risks.
The judiciary is already untangling the overlapping claims. A federal appeals court in Philadelphia ruled against New Jersey gaming regulators earlier this year, determining the CFTC held sole regulatory authority over Kalshi’s election and sports-related contracts.
This sequence of litigation reflects a deeply fractured regulatory perimeter that companies must navigate as they deploy new derivative products.
A bigger market, and a bigger regulatory target
The move into perpetual futures would further position prediction markets as part of mainstream financial infrastructure rather than a niche corner of online speculation.
That shift is already drawing attention from traditional finance. The Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the New York Stock Exchange, recently invested $2 billion in Polymarket, a sign that major market operators see commercial value in platforms built around event-driven pricing.
Supporters of the model argue that prediction markets are proving useful as both forecasting tools and trading venues.
In high-liquidity markets, Brier scores, a standard measure of probabilistic accuracy, have fallen as low as 0.0247 shortly before resolution, suggesting pricing errors narrow sharply as capital and participation deepen. Industry estimates also show that about 10% of proprietary trading firms are already active in event contracts, using them in part to hedge macro and policy risk.
That combination of data value and trading activity helps explain why platforms are racing to broaden their product mix.
Rob Hadick, managing partner at Dragonfly, framed the commercial logic bluntly:
“Owning your customer will be the only way to have longevity in this new world of broad financialization.”
However, not everyone sees perpetual futures as the natural next step.
Alex Momot, chief executive and co-founder of Peanut Trade, told CryptoSlate that the current push looks more like a response to tightening legal pressure than a durable product strategy.
He noted that regulators and some jurisdictions are moving against prediction markets, and as a result, these operators appear to be shifting closer to the crypto-exchange model, where the rules are clearer, and the risk of being classified as gambling is lower.
Momot argued that strategy may offer only limited relief. In his view, the deeper problem is liquidity. Without more depth, many of the sector’s most promising use cases, including hedging and insurance against real-world event risk, remain too small to scale.
He said the stronger long-term path may lie in index-style products, market aggregation, and pooled liquidity across events, structures that could make prediction markets look more like traditional derivatives or synthetic exposures.
That viewpoint points to a broader tension now shaping the industry. One camp sees perpetual futures as the fastest way to capture more trading volume and keep users active between headline-driven events. Another sees them as a tactical detour from the harder task of building deeper, more resilient liquidity.
Either way, the legal risk is rising. Dyma Budorin, founder and chief executive of CORE3, said the merging of prediction and derivatives markets is likely to draw closer scrutiny from regulators already struggling to define the sector.
He said:
“What we’re really seeing is a convergence toward perp-like behavior without the corresponding risk controls. If this trend continues, regulators won’t treat prediction markets as harmless forecasting tools, they’ll treat them as derivatives platforms operating outside the rules. And historically, that doesn’t end quietly.”
The New York litigation has already ensured that the fight over jurisdiction will remain central to the industry’s future. That battle could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court or force Congress to step in with a clearer statutory framework.
Until then, prediction-market operators appear willing to keep expanding through the uncertainty, betting that the commercial upside of perpetual futures is worth the legal exposure.
