SpaceX IPO Filing Opens Up xAI Finances
The filing, which includes’ Elon Musk’s AI company, is the first for the major generative labs, with Anthropic and OpenAI expected to follow soon with their own IPOs.
SpaceX
How prediction markets are pricing the battle between Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI
Polymarket said on Tuesday that it will let users put bets on private company events such as valuations and IPO dates.
The cryptocurrency-based platform worked with Nasdaq Private Market to verify the results of these new contracts.
With more than 1,600 unicorns totaling more than $5 trillion, private companies are incredibly wealthy today.
However, until the companies go public, ordinary investors are typically prohibited from investing.
Anthropic and OpenAI are being considered as potential future possibilities, and companies like SpaceX may soon go public.
The new prediction markets allow users to speculate on the future performance of private companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, and Kraken.
One market is focused on Anthropic’s valuation by the end of the year, with traders now estimating an 88% possibility that the company would achieve a $1 trillion valuation by December 31.
Additional contracts suggest a 94% chance that Anthropic will be worth more than OpenAI in 2026, as well as a 69% chance that Anthropic will enter the public markets before OpenAI.
Other cryptocurrency sites are also launching similar products.
Earlier this month, TradeXYZ on Hyperliquid introduced pre-IPO futures for companies like Cerebras and SpaceX, giving traders another chance to bet on high-profile private companies before they go public.
Partnership focuses on data integrity and market resolution
Nasdaq Private Market will provide the data used to settle the wagers, based on its surveillance of private companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and Ripple.
Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, stated that the launch provides access to a part of the financial markets that ordinary investors have long been barred from, allowing people to engage directly with the decisions that form the value of significant private companies for the first time.
The collaboration links Nasdaq Private Market’s information on private share transactions with Polymarket’s event-based trading system.
In addition to giving institutional investors a fresh measure of market sentiment to complement the current transaction data used across the financial sector, it allows consumers to speculate on verified outcomes involving private businesses.
Polymarket has continued its rapid expansion, with new markets hitting record highs every month over the past year.
In 2026 so far, users in the United States have placed about $39 billion in wagers on the platform.
The agreement, according to Tom Callahan, CEO of Nasdaq Private Market, expands access to a broader set of market participants while reinforcing the company’s focus on accurate data to ensure fair and reliable market outcomes.
SpaceX IPO could dominate market
However, the launch coincides with a challenging period for businesses preparing to go public.
The performance of new stocks varied wildly last year.
On its first day, Navan fell 20% while Figma increased 250%. At year’s end, Gemini had dropped 65%, while Circle had increased 156%.
Wall Street analysts believe SpaceX’s IPO will dominate the market and outshine rival listings.
Elon Musk’s business may shortly unveil its IPO intentions, with a target valuation of up to $1.75 trillion.
Samuel Kerr, who handles equity capital markets globally at Mergermarket, called the potential $75 billion SpaceX offering “otherworldly.”
It would considerably outperform recent IPOs such as Cerebras Systems, which was valued at almost $95 billion last week.
“There’s a possibility it could be a negative for the whole global IPO market,” Kerr told CNBC on Tuesday. The deal might “really suck all the oxygen out the room for anybody else. Everybody’s eyes are going to be on SpaceX.”
With so much money flowing into one stock, “almost nothing’s going to want to be in the market at the same time,” he added.
Salman Ahmed, the Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, said that such large-scale listings could temporarily redirect capital away from the broader stock market.
“They’ll have to suck in a lot of capital from the system,” Ahmed said, “and that’s why I think there’s another reason we have to be careful about the winners right now, because that’s where the capital is going to be pulled from to finance these mega IPOs.”
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Trump administration’s 10% Intel stake is now up about $28 billion
The Trump administration’s Intel (INTC) stake has grown into a $28 billion paper gain after Intel surged to a fresh all-time high.
Back on August 22, 2025, Cryptopolitan reported that the U.S. government had bought a 10% holding in Intel at $20.47 a share, a position worth about $8.9 billion at the time.
Now, after a huge run in the stock, that U.S. position is sitting on a gain of about 315%.
On Friday, Intel surged by 28% and traded as high as $85.22, setting a new record for the stock. The rally pushed Intel to its strongest one-day performance since October 29, 1987. It also lifted the stock’s gain for the year to about 120%.
Intel also climbed 22.6% in another reading that took it above the peak it reached during the dot-com era in 2000. Truly just… outstanding!
Intel turns strong earnings into a market shock
Yesterday, Cryptopolitan reported that Intel saw $13.58 billion in revenue for the quarter, beating the $12.42 billion that Wall Street expected. Earnings per share came in at $0.29, far above the $0.01 forecast.
Revenue was also up 7.2% from the $12.67 billion that Intel reported a year earlier. For the next quarter, Intel said it expects revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion in the second quarter. Analysts had been looking for about $13 billion.
And then of course, we’ve got the whole matter of Tesla and SpaceX picking Intel’s 14A process for the Terafab AI chip project. That gives Intel an outside customer for a future manufacturing node that the market is watching closely.
At the same time, Intel’s Data Center and AI business posted year-over-year growth. Those two things landed together. The foundry build-out is still expensive and still one of the biggest financial variables in the Intel story, but the new customer link gave traders another reason to bet on Intel in the near term.
For a long stretch, Intel looked like it was losing ground in the fight for AI hardware demand. Other chip companies got most of the attention, and Nvidia led much of that run. But perhaps that money is now flowing back into Intel in a serious way.
Intel lifts the whole chip sector as AI spending keeps rolling
The rally did not stop with Intel. U.S. chip stocks surged to new highs on Friday after Intel’s stronger-than-expected forecast boosted confidence in the wider AI trade.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.2% to a record and was on track for its 18th straight day of gains. The index is now up more than 47% this year.
That broader rise has been tied to the spending binge from major tech companies building more AI infrastructure. Chip names have been among the biggest winners from that wave of spending. The earnings outlook shows how wide the gap has become.
The semiconductor group is expected to post 109.2% earnings growth for the first quarter, based on LSEG data. The wider S&P 500 information technology sector is expected to grow earnings by 48.2%. Both numbers are strong, but the chip group is in a different league.
Other stocks joined the Friday jump. AMD climbed 13.7%. Arm gained 12%. Nvidia, now the most valuable company in the world, added 1.6%. Last year, a lot of the rally in chip names came from demand for Nvidia’s graphics chips, which are used to train large AI models on huge piles of data.
Earlier this year, many AI and other Big Tech stocks came under pressure. Investors started asking whether all the spending would really turn into better revenue, fatter margins, and stronger cash flow soon enough.
Even with that concern, valuations have cooled from earlier extremes. The S&P 500 tech index now trades at about 22 times forward 12-month earnings, down from about 31.8 last year. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was last around 26.6 times forward earnings, compared with about 20.7 times for the S&P 500.
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Jeff Bezos is talking to Trump and pushing for more Blue Origin contracts
Jeff Bezos is doing everything he can to replace Elon Musk as Trump’s go-to billionaire, and it’s working. According to Bloomberg, Jeff has already talked to President Trump twice this month, and Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp met with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles in mid-June.
In those meetings, Jeff and his space company pushed hard for more government contracts, using Elon’s public fall from grace as their opening.
The timing couldn’t have been better for Jeff. Earlier in June, Elon tore into Trump-backed legislation on X and even suggested starting a new political party. Days later, Trump pulled his support for Elon’s NASA nominee, Jared Isaacman, and warned publicly that Elon’s companies might lose their government deals.
“The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump posted. “I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!”
Jeff offers Trump what Elon can’t
Elon used to be deep inside Trump’s circle. He helped with transition picks, ran a $250 million super PAC to support Trump’s re-election, and was behind Isaacman’s nomination to lead NASA. That’s gone now. The breakup cleared the way for Jeff, who’s wasted no time getting close.
Trump, who wants a crewed mission to the moon during his term, brought that up with Jeff in recent calls, Bloomberg reported. Blue Origin is aiming to land a cargo ship on the moon this year. That’s a strong pitch, but there’s still a problem: SpaceX is way ahead.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket made it to orbit for the first time in January, but a second flight planned for spring never happened. The next shot is in mid-August. Meanwhile, SpaceX is expected to hit 170 launches in 2025. Most of those are for its satellite arm, Starlink, but many are also tied to government missions.
In April, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX $5.9 billion for 28 upcoming launches. United Launch Alliance got less for 19. Blue Origin only landed $2.4 billion for seven. Elon’s rockets are proven and fast. Jeff’ rockets are still trying to catch up.
Limp has been pressing Blue Origin to speed things up and compete harder. The company is also aiming at several major future government contracts, including Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile-defense plan and upcoming Mars programs NASA has been asked to pursue.
Jeff repairs relationship with the White House
Jeff wasn’t always this close to Trump, as you may know. During Trump’s first term, the president accused Jeff of using the Washington Post to attack his presidency and even launched an investigation into Amazon’s Postal Service contracts, saying the company’s discounts were hurting the system. Trump also called Amazon a monopoly.
But that tension is fading. Jeff built connections with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. He also backed the Washington Post’s decision not to endorse any candidate, blocking a planned editorial that would’ve supported Vice President Kamala Harris. That move didn’t go unnoticed. Trump has privately praised Jeff for stopping the endorsement, according to people close to him.
Jeff also brought cash. Amazon paid $40 million, nearly three times the next highest offer, for a documentary about First Lady Melania Trump. Over 70% of that money is going directly to her, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. And Amazon gave $1 million to Trump’s 2025 inauguration, where Jeff and his fiancée Lauren Sánchez were seated right behind the president.
Jeff even invited Trump to his wedding in Venice this weekend. Trump isn’t expected to attend, but the invitation itself was part of the charm offensive.
Jeff is doing what Elon can’t right now: keep Trump happy, feed his space ambitions, do as he says, and avoid drama. Whether that’s enough to push Blue Origin ahead of SpaceX in the government contract race is still unclear. But for now, the billionaire who once clashed with Trump is back in the room, and Elon is out.
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