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GENIUS Act

Polymarket’s 89% odds on the fate of the GENIUS Act sparks controversy in the crypto space

Polymarket’s 89% odds on the fate of the GENIUS Act sparks controversy in the crypto space

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Crypto users are betting on the likelihood that US stablecoin legislation will advance, spurred by a key Senate vote.

On Thursday, June 19, Polymarket, an American crypto-based prediction platform, gave the GENIUS Act an 89% chance of passing both the US Senate and House. The platform also predicted the president would sign it into law before 2026.

This came just a few days after a key vote in the Senate and a recent public push from President Donald Trump to get the bill to his desk quickly.

Notably, the Polymarket bet appeared to have gone live around 18 hours after the Senate passed the bill in a 68-30 vote.

Polymarket’s 89% odds on the fate of the GENIUS Act sparks controversy in the crypto space 

Following the Polymarket odds, it is not yet clear if the bill would have strong enough support to pass the House in its current form, or whether lawmakers would append amendments to ease concerns about Trump’s ties to the crypto space, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1.

Additionally, several senators voted against a similar change before the final passage of the GENIUS Act, which sent the bill to the House. 

Depending on the bill’s final version, one possible outcome is that it could open the floodgates for US companies to issue their own stablecoins to settle payments.

For instance, Tech giants like Apple and Google were said to be considering their own tokens. Concerning this, two United States senators sent questions to Meta about whether the company had similar plans once the bill potentially becomes law.

On the other hand, Trump has indicated he would sign the GENIUS Act “with no add-ons” if the House were to pass it swiftly. 

In addition, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the chamber and might soon have to vote on a bill to create a framework for a crypto market structure. The CLARITY Act, a proposal the committee passed last week, would clarify US financial regulators’ responsibility over digital assets.

Meanwhile, the Polymarket odds do not necessarily predict whether United States legislators will pass the bill or President Trump will give it his signature to become a law. Instead, the prediction market displays how much crypto enthusiasts are willing to bet on one or more specific outcomes.

French Hill expresses hope in the CLARITY Act to make the US a global leader in digital assets 

The US House Committee on Financial Services approved a crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. This assured crypto enthusiasts that it will soon head to the full House for a vote.

House Financial Services Committee lawmakers voted 32 to 19 to send the CLARITY Act for a full floor vote. This came after the House Agriculture Committee advanced the bill in a 47 to 6 vote.

Congressman French Hill, who sponsored the bill, right after the vote was successful, stated that this is the second bill that Bryan Steil has skillfully led, acknowledging first with stablecoins and then with a market structure bill.

Steil, the chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services Crypto Subcommittee, acknowledged that it was a big step forward and was pleased to see that Hill’s act had made it through the House committees. 

Hill mentioned that this is a chance for America to take charge of the future of Web3 on the internet, especially in financial services that use tokenized payments.

If the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act are approved, they could bring a major change to cryptocurrency rules in the US, making the crypto world stronger. 

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Tether charts its own path beyond U.S. borders

Tether charts its own path beyond U.S. borders

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Tether, the largest issuer of these digital tokens, says it will focus on markets beyond the United States as Congress further debates legislation to integrate stablecoins into the mainstream financial system.

On Monday, the Senate advanced an industry-supported regulatory bill called the Genius Act. Meanwhile, the House Financial Services Committee has approved its stablecoin legislation, though the full House has not yet passed it.

According to Paolo Ardoino, chief executive officer of Tether Holdings SA, they need to see how the Genius Act distinguishes between foreign and domestic issuers. He notes that their main interest will remain outside of the US.

Genius Act could reshape oversight for foreign issuers

Tether’s USDT stablecoin, based in El Salvador, represents over 60% of the stablecoin market and serves 420 million users across emerging markets. Despite facing conflicts with state and federal regulators over the years, the company has grown more active in the US, encouraged by a more crypto-friendly regulatory climate under President Donald Trump’s administration. 

Ardoino made his first trip to the US in March, stopping in Washington during Trump’s inaugural digital-asset summit. He noted that they are looking at the Genius Act in a way that will allow them to be compliant. He continued to say they could comply while focusing strongly on foreign markets.

The stablecoin bills currently under consideration in the House and Senate mandate that these tokens—typically pegged to the dollar or another currency—be fully backed by cash and “safe assets” like short-term Treasuries. They also require issuers to comply with the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money-laundering regulations. Additionally, both bills would permit regulators to approve foreign issuers like Tether if they are governed by “comparable” regulations abroad.

However, uncertainty remains regarding how strictly the law will enforce compliance for those who fail to meet the requirements.

Ardoino said that stablecoins are important in the United States, but there are tons of ways to pay each other, such as Zelle, PayPal, debit cards, credit cards, and cash.

Although Tether does not currently serve US customers, most of the private company’s reserves consist of assets that would comply with the proposed US legislation. 

Tether eyes compliance while targeting the unbanked

However, the firm also backs its token with assets not permitted under the rules, such as Bitcoin and secured loans. Given its size, Tether would fall under federal regulation if it sought a US license under these regulations.

In 2021, Tether settled with US authorities over accusations that it misrepresented its reserves. Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., formerly led by Howard Lutnick, who served as Trump’s Secretary of Commerce, manages those reserves. Ardoino has indicated that the company may issue a new stablecoin designed to meet these regulatory requirements, potentially making it more appealing to institutional investors.

The more supportive regulatory climate in the US has also motivated Tether to move closer to obtaining a full audit of its reserves by a Big Four accounting firm, which Ardoino said is still under discussion. Currently, Tether provides quarterly attestations certified by BDO Italia SpA.

“They are going through a phase of adjustment, but a full audit is our priority,” Ardoino said.

Stablecoins have become crucial to the functioning of crypto markets, with about $243 billion of them in circulation in May 2025. 

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that a consortium of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, are exploring whether to issue a stablecoin jointly.

Ardoino expressed confidence that competition from traditional banking giants would have minimal impact on Tether’s core business.

While major U.S. banks are considering launching their own stablecoin, Tether remains focused on underserved global markets. According to Ardoino, these banks are likely to concentrate on Western economies, whereas Tether continues to target the roughly 3 billion unbanked individuals worldwide who remain outside the traditional financial system.

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Is the GENIUS Act protecting consumers at the expense of innovation?

Is the GENIUS Act protecting consumers at the expense of innovation?

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The Senate voted 66–22 to advance the GENIUS Act, showing strong support from both Democrats and Republicans and signaling that the U.S. government is finally ready to take crypto regulation seriously. 

The Act still raises concerns about whether it goes too far or not far enough in protecting consumers and whether it will hurt innovation.

Supporters say the bill will open doors for more businesses to safely enter the market and build better tools for payments and finance. Still, critics warn that the GENIUS Act may either be too soft on risky players or too harsh on small startups and innovators who can’t meet all the new requirements.

Supporters say the bill keeps consumers safe

Supporters of the GENIUS Act believe the bill helps prevent disasters like the 2022 collapse of Terra Luna, which caused billions in losses and sent shockwaves through the entire industry. The Act reduces the risk that coins will lose their value suddenly by forcing stablecoin providers to keep 100% of reserves in safe assets like cash or U.S. Treasury bills so that consumers can’t cash out. 

The law also ensures consumers handling more than $50 billion in stablecoins publish monthly reports about their reserves and go through annual financial audits to help buyers trust the coins they use or hold because the company stands by its promise. If a stablecoin company collapses, the GENIUS Act gives everyday users priority when getting their money back.

Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, argue that the law doesn’t do enough to prevent powerful people from using stablecoins for personal gain while still influencing public policy. For example, the bill doesn’t fully deal with Trump’s USD1 stablecoin, which was created by a crypto company linked to the president.

The law, Senator Warren says, will enable anonymous buyers, foreign governments, and big corporations to use stablecoins to hide money, evade regulation, and perhaps secure special treatment like pardons or special arrangements from officials who have conflicts of interest.

Warren and other critics fear that the system could fall apart once more if companies follow the rules on paper but engage in similarly reckless behavior in practice — only this time, the losses would likely be larger, especially if foreign players or major firms abuse the system without being identified in time.

Supporters argue that the Act provides new startups and established banks with clear rules to follow. They say companies will build useful tools that attract responsible investors, encourage long-term planning, and introduce creative solutions.

Supporters also believe that setting strict standards will allow companies to compete based on the quality of their services.

Critics say strict rules hurt small startups

On the other hand, critics worry that the GENIUS Act’s strict rules might only work for big firms and shut out smaller innovators because it requires firms to create separate subsidiaries to issue stablecoins.

Opponents also fear that the bill’s long list of monthly reserve reports, annual audits, liquidity rules, and marketing limit requirements could make small teams or international developers who want to build for U.S. users feel locked out. 

There’s also concern that if only a few big companies control most of the stablecoin market, they could set the terms for everyone else and cause less diversity in products, fewer choices for consumers, and more market power in the hands of a few firms. 

We must find a fair balance between safety and growth

The GENIUS Act is a historic step in bringing order to stablecoins because, for the first time, stablecoin issuers will have to answer to clear federal laws, something supporters say is long overdue.

However, critics are not wrong when they say important protections are missing because the bill could do more to limit political influence, protect users from abuse, and make room for new voices and ideas in the market. Many fear the law could favor powerful players at the expense of small innovators and everyday users.

Still, the GENIUS Act remains a step, but whether it moves the U.S. forward, backward, or sideways will depend on how it’s enforced, how it evolves, and who it truly serves in the long run. 

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Senate Democrats move to block Trump’s stablecoin payday

Senate Democrats move to block Trump’s stablecoin payday

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Chuck Schumer, Minority Leader of the United States Senate, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley plan to add an anti-corruption amendment to the GENIUS Act. These amendments tackle President Donald Trump’s ties to the cryptocurrency world. 

Senator Jeff Merkley shared an X post stating that passing the GENIUS Act without including their anti-corruption amendment would show that Congress was okay with Trump selling influence and access to those who can pay the most. 

Chuck Schumer is expected to support changes to the stablecoin bill to limit the president’s connections to cryptocurrency. 

Senators propose a new amendment to the GENIUS Act

On May 20, most members of the US Senate voted to move forward with the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act. The bill aimed to regulate the payment of stablecoins. However, some top Democrats wanted to add an amendment to the bill.

This amendment would prevent a US president from making money off stablecoins. This proposal comes after 18 Democrats voted with Republicans on May 20 to advance the bill, following a procedural vote that did not pass on May 8. 

Initially, according to reports from sources, crypto platform World Liberty Financial (WLFI) released its USD1 stablecoin in March. Trump and his 3 sons apparently head the crypto platform. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are actively involved in the management of the crypto platform World Liberty Financial (WLFI),  and Barron Trump is listed as the project’s “DeFi (decentralized finance) visionary.” 

Concerning President Donald Trump’s ties to the cryptocurrency world, critics have noted the president may still profit personally from legislation supporting stablecoins such as USD1 to be recognized as financial instruments in the US.

Apart from this, an Abu Dhabi investment company announced it would settle a $2-billion investment in Binance using USD1, permitting the president’s family to pocket the transaction fees.

To curb this, Democratic legislators have already called for an investigation into the president’s involvement with the platform. However, Zach Witkoff, a co-founder at WLFI, stated that most people just kept describing this as “ flawed.”

Senators investigate Trump’s “private, secret” dinner

Merkley and Warren are also preparing to respond to Trump’s exclusive dinner event, reportedly set to host up to 220 top buyers of his personal memecoin at his golf club. Among the attendees was Justin Sun, a billionaire and crypto entrepreneur from China. 

According to the senators’ plan, Merkley intended to join a protest in the Trump venue that would be staged by the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen in alliance with a progressive political organization, Our Revolution.

On the other hand, Warren conducted a press conference with Merkley, Senator Chris Murphy, and public citizen representatives demanding that Trump release the guest list for the dinner. This was because most potential attendees remained anonymous even after several publicly declared they owned the wallets that bought the memecoin and were planning to attend.

Murphy described the dinner as a private, secret dinner in which individuals who had put money in the president’s pocket got access to him. He added that this was maybe the most corrupt of all the corruption. 

Furthermore, based on his argument, they were able to pay their way to get an audience with the President of the United States to ask for favorable national security concessions.

The White House did not respond to requests for comments.

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White House crypto czar says stablecoin bill will unlock trillions for US treasury

White House crypto czar says stablecoin bill will unlock trillions for US treasury

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The White House’s top crypto advisor has claimed that federal stablecoin legislation could generate trillions in Treasury demand, positioning the measure as both economic policy and a potential financial windfall for US government finances. The GENIUS Act has already cleared a critical Senate filibuster threshold, setting up a floor vote that could reshape how digital dollar tokens operate across US markets.

  • David Sacks predicts stablecoin bill could create “trillions of dollars of demand” for US Treasuries “practically overnight.”
  • GENIUS Act cleared 66-32 cloture vote in Senate, surpassing 60-vote filibuster threshold with 15 Democratic supporters.
  • Stablecoin issuers would be required to hold 100 percent reserves in cash or Treasury bonds, with pending House passage still needed.

The White House’s leading cryptocurrency official has made an ambitious economic claim about pending stablecoin legislation, arguing that federal regulatory clarity could channel trillions of dollars into US Treasury holdings. David Sacks, President Donald Trump’s chief advisor on crypto and artificial intelligence policy, stated during a Wednesday interview that the proposed GENIUS Act could generate enormous demand for Treasury instruments by providing legal certainty for stablecoin issuers. “If we provide the legal clarity and legal framework for this, I think we could create trillions of dollars of demand for our Treasuries practically overnight, very quickly,” Sacks said. The legislation has already passed a significant procedural hurdle in the Senate, clearing a 66-32 cloture vote this week that exceeded the 60-vote threshold required to overcome a filibuster. Critically, 15 Democrats voted with Republicans on the measure, signaling unusual bipartisan alignment on a crypto policy question that has traditionally divided the parties along ideological lines.

GENIUS Act establishes mandatory 100-percent Treasury reserve backing for all stablecoins

The core mechanism of the GENIUS Act, formally titled the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, would impose uniform federal standards on how stablecoin issuers maintain and manage reserves. Under the bill’s framework, stablecoin issuers must hold reserves that fully cover every token in circulation, with those reserves limited to easily accessible and safe assets such as cash or US Treasury bonds. This design is intended to guarantee that stablecoins remain stable in value and redeemable at par, addressing a foundational concern among regulators and institutional investors about whether digital dollar tokens can maintain their peg during market stress or operational disruptions.

Sacks framed the legislation as more than a regulatory measure, describing it instead as “a national economic strategy” aimed at strengthening the dollar’s dominance in internet-based financial systems. He argued that stablecoins provide a new settlement layer characterized by improved efficiency, lower costs, and real-time payment capabilities compared to traditional wire transfer and banking infrastructure. For institutional investors, the clarity matters significantly: a federal regulatory framework would remove substantial legal uncertainty that has previously hindered institutional adoption of stablecoins. Banks and asset managers have expressed interest in using stablecoins for treasury management and settlement, but have largely held back absent clear regulatory status.

The Treasury reserve requirement is particularly favorable to federal finances. By mandating that stablecoin collateral consist primarily of Treasury instruments rather than other asset classes, the legislation would effectively create a new and substantial buyer of government debt. Sacks’s claim that this could generate “trillions” reflects the scale of potential stablecoin circulation if the market reaches even a fraction of the maturity achieved by traditional payment systems or money market funds, which manage roughly $6 trillion in assets globally.

Trump family stablecoin USD1 stands to benefit directly from GENIUS Act framework

The advance of the GENIUS Act has generated significant controversy centered on potential conflicts of interest involving the Trump family’s direct financial stakes in the crypto industry. World Liberty Financial, a venture backed by Donald Trump Jr., has launched USD1, a stablecoin collateralized by precisely the asset class that the GENIUS Act would regulate and legitimize: US Treasuries and dollar deposits. This alignment has raised alarms among Democratic lawmakers and government ethics observers, who argue that the bill could function as a preferential regulatory gift to the President’s family business.

The controversy intensified earlier this month when Abu Dhabi-based investment fund MGX pledged significant capital into USD1, routing the investment through Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. This investment represents the largest single capital infusion into the Trump-linked stablecoin to date, according to available reporting. Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democratic critics have explicitly warned that the GENIUS Act could channel billions of dollars into the President’s and his family’s financial positions, creating what they characterize as an unprecedented conflict of interest. Warren and allied lawmakers have called for stronger ethical safeguards in the legislation designed to prevent elected officials from profiting personally from regulatory frameworks they shepherd into law.

Sacks has expressed confidence that the bill will advance further, yet he has declined to address direct questions about Trump’s financial ties to stablecoin ventures. His silence on the matter has not resolved the underlying ethical questions, which may resurface during House debate and floor votes. The conflict-of-interest question remains unresolved at the legislative level, and no amendments addressing Warren’s concerns have been publicly proposed or incorporated into the Senate version of the bill.

House passage remains uncertain as final floor vote timeline emerges

While the GENIUS Act has secured Senate passage through the procedural cloture vote, the bill has not yet been voted on by the full Senate chamber, and House passage remains dependent on future legislative scheduling and potential amendments. The 66-32 cloture vote indicates sufficient support to overcome a filibuster, but the actual Senate floor vote has not occurred. Institutional investors monitoring the measure should note that multiple legislative steps remain, and unexpected delays or substantive amendments could alter the bill’s final form. The House of Representatives has not yet scheduled floor debate, and committee review timelines are not publicly established.

The bipartisan nature of the cloture vote—with 15 Democrats joining all voting Republicans—suggests that significant portions of the Democratic caucus may be willing to support a stablecoin framework despite ethical objections raised by Warren and other progressive lawmakers. This split within the Democratic party could be decisive if House Democrats face internal pressure to advance or block the measure. Some Democrats may prioritize the economic benefits of regulatory clarity and Treasury demand over ethical concerns about Trump family involvement, while others may refuse to support legislation they view as a conflict of interest.

Institutional investors should monitor whether House Democrats introduce amendments designed to address the conflict-of-interest concerns raised by Warren, such as provisions preventing sitting government officials or their close family members from holding financial stakes in regulated stablecoin issuers. The absence of such safeguards in the current Senate version may prove contentious during House debate. Additionally, investors should track whether the Trump administration or stablecoin advocates provide further public statements clarifying how Treasury demand from stablecoin collateral could reach the “trillions” figure Sacks cited, or whether that projection is subject to revision based on actual market adoption rates.