Polymarket’s 89% odds on the fate of the GENIUS Act sparks controversy in the crypto space
Crypto users are betting on the likelihood that US stablecoin legislation will advance, spurred by a key Senate vote.
On Thursday, June 19, Polymarket, an American crypto-based prediction platform, gave the GENIUS Act an 89% chance of passing both the US Senate and House. The platform also predicted the president would sign it into law before 2026.
This came just a few days after a key vote in the Senate and a recent public push from President Donald Trump to get the bill to his desk quickly.
Notably, the Polymarket bet appeared to have gone live around 18 hours after the Senate passed the bill in a 68-30 vote.
Polymarket’s 89% odds on the fate of the GENIUS Act sparks controversy in the crypto space
Following the Polymarket odds, it is not yet clear if the bill would have strong enough support to pass the House in its current form, or whether lawmakers would append amendments to ease concerns about Trump’s ties to the crypto space, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1.
Additionally, several senators voted against a similar change before the final passage of the GENIUS Act, which sent the bill to the House.
Depending on the bill’s final version, one possible outcome is that it could open the floodgates for US companies to issue their own stablecoins to settle payments.
For instance, Tech giants like Apple and Google were said to be considering their own tokens. Concerning this, two United States senators sent questions to Meta about whether the company had similar plans once the bill potentially becomes law.
On the other hand, Trump has indicated he would sign the GENIUS Act “with no add-ons” if the House were to pass it swiftly.
In addition, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the chamber and might soon have to vote on a bill to create a framework for a crypto market structure. The CLARITY Act, a proposal the committee passed last week, would clarify US financial regulators’ responsibility over digital assets.
Meanwhile, the Polymarket odds do not necessarily predict whether United States legislators will pass the bill or President Trump will give it his signature to become a law. Instead, the prediction market displays how much crypto enthusiasts are willing to bet on one or more specific outcomes.
French Hill expresses hope in the CLARITY Act to make the US a global leader in digital assets
The US House Committee on Financial Services approved a crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. This assured crypto enthusiasts that it will soon head to the full House for a vote.
House Financial Services Committee lawmakers voted 32 to 19 to send the CLARITY Act for a full floor vote. This came after the House Agriculture Committee advanced the bill in a 47 to 6 vote.
Congressman French Hill, who sponsored the bill, right after the vote was successful, stated that this is the second bill that Bryan Steil has skillfully led, acknowledging first with stablecoins and then with a market structure bill.
Steil, the chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services Crypto Subcommittee, acknowledged that it was a big step forward and was pleased to see that Hill’s act had made it through the House committees.
Hill mentioned that this is a chance for America to take charge of the future of Web3 on the internet, especially in financial services that use tokenized payments.
If the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act are approved, they could bring a major change to cryptocurrency rules in the US, making the crypto world stronger.
Cryptopolitan Academy: Want to grow your money in 2025? Learn how to do it with DeFi in our upcoming webclass. Save Your Spot
