Bitcoin’s bounce off Tuesday’s low near $63,200 is coming mostly from leveraged futures positioning, not real spot buying, according to CryptoQuant data cited by the analytics account XWIN Japan.
That’s the same setup that preceded April 2026’s failed rally, which is why some analysts are treating the current recovery as fragile until spot demand actually shows up.
Futures Are Leading, Spot Is Lagging
XWIN Japan laid out the numbers plainly: 30-day perpetual futures demand has turned positive again, while on-chain spot demand remains negative. Traders, in other words, are adding leveraged exposure before real spot buying has caught up.
The account pointed to April 2026 as the precedent, when Bitcoin ran from roughly $66,000 to $79,000 on rising futures demand while spot stayed weak, and the rally eventually faded once that leverage unwound.
One difference this time is that US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have started recovering too. As XWIN Japan put it, “the key question is not simply whether Bitcoin is rising.”
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, had made a near-identical call earlier in the day: open interest is climbing while on-chain spot demand stays negative, and “a sustainable rally needs both spot and future demand.”
He’d said almost the same thing on April 27, noting that Bitcoin was futures-driven even with ETF inflows and Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchases in play, and that bear markets historically only end once spot and futures demand recover together.
Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 at the time of writing, having oscillated within a 24-hour range of roughly $63,200 to $64,400 per CoinGecko data.
Price Under Pressure, and a Familiar Setup
It’s been a choppy stretch for the asset as it first got turned back at $65,000 earlier this month after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, then rallied a few hundred bucks above that same level on a weak US jobs report last Friday before getting rejected there again on Monday. It slipped as low as the aforementioned $63,200 on Tuesday, a nine-day low, before clawing back some ground.
Zoom out, and the picture softens further: BTC is up only 1.4% across 30 days and still down 46% from a year ago. Its market cap sits near $1.28 trillion, with dominance over the rest of the crypto market just over 57%.
Other traders are watching the same tension play out technically. Glassnode data shows 54.6% of Bitcoin’s supply still sitting in profit even as the price has stuck in the $63,500 to $65,000 band, with the firm treating $65,000 as the level that would need to break before anyone calls a bottom confirmed.
A weekly chart shared separately by trader Titan adds another wrinkle: the same moving-average crossover that preceded Bitcoin’s three prior cycle bottoms, in 2015, 2019, and 2022, has just printed again, with price sitting in the same zone the chart flags as a potential bottoming range.
That lines up with XWIN Japan’s framing regardless: the rebound holds together only if spot buying, ETF flows, and futures demand all turn up together, and if open interest keeps climbing without spot behind it, the setup looks like April all over again.
The Ethereum (ETH) price broke out of a descending trendline that had capped it since the all-time high, while futures open interest climbed to $19.8 billion. ETH trades near $1,928, up 5.2% in the last 24 hours.
Derivatives positioning, liquidation data, and long-term chart structure now point in the same bullish direction. However, one missing ingredient still keeps the breakout unconfirmed.
Futures Traders Return as Open Interest Nears $20 Billion
Glassnode data shows Ethereum futures open interest across all exchanges spiked to $19.8 billion on July 14. That is the highest reading since June 3, when a market-wide deleveraging event reset positioning.
Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts. Rising open interest alongside a rising price suggests new capital is entering the market rather than shorts simply covering.
The metric had collapsed to approximately $15.5 billion in late June. Its sharp recovery indicates traders are returning to ETH derivatives with conviction. Elevated positive funding on Ethereum supports the same reading.
Whale trader Machi Big Brother reportedly opened a $24.3 million ETH long at 25x leverage, with liquidation set at $1,833.
Machi Big Brother has opened a $24,300,000 $ETH long with 25x leverage.
A drop back below the June range would flip this signal and suggest the new positioning was short-lived.
Long Liquidations at a Yearly Low of 4% Point to a Short Squeeze
The composition of recent liquidations strengthens the bullish case. Ethereum futures long liquidations dominance fell to 4%, its lowest level in a year, according to Glassnode.
In plain terms, only 4% of liquidated positions were longs. The remaining 96% were short traders forced out as the price pushed higher.
Still, squeeze-driven rallies carry a caveat. Forced short covering can exaggerate upside moves, as the June 3 liquidations cascaded to exaggerate the downside. Spot demand must follow for the move to hold.
A return of dominance above 50% would indicate that longs are absorbing damage again and would weaken the momentum signal.
Ethereum Price Holds the Trendline From the 2022 Bottom
The weekly chart shows why the current level matters so much. An ascending trendline drawn from the June 2022 bottom, respected throughout the previous bull market, held near $1,600 once again.
The bounce also occurred inside a long-term green demand zone that has served as support four times since early 2023. Moreover, the area coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the entire cycle at $1,754.
This triple confluence of trendline, horizontal support, and Fibonacci level makes the zone a structural line in the sand. The next major resistance sits far above, at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of $2,438.
ETH Price Prediction as the $2,000 Test Looms
On the daily chart, Monday’s 6.5% green candle broke above a descending trendline in place since the all-time high. That line had rejected the ETH price five times before this breakout.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the shift in momentum. It broke out of its own descending trendline, drawn from July 2025, and now sits just below 65.
One warning sign remains. Volume has been declining during the recovery, so the breakout lacks confirmation from participation. Analysts watching the ETH/BTC ratio see early signs of a broader Ethereum comeback that could fill the missing demand.
Immediate resistance lies between $1,900 and $2,000. A confirmed daily close above that zone on rising volume could open the way toward $2,438, nearly 30% above the current price.
On the downside, $1,754 is the critical support. Losing it would expose the trendline near $1,600, and a weekly close below that level would invalidate the bullish structure entirely.
Either volume arrives to validate the breakout, or ETH returns to the zone that has saved it four times already.
XRP’s late-June washout removed a major source of market instability: excess leverage that could have turned another sharp move into a liquidation cycle. The next test is harder because XRP now needs ETF and spot buyers to carry the market without rebuilding the same crowded futures trade.
The rebound is now a test of real demand. XRP has moved away from the pressure zone that defined the late-June washout, when prior CryptoSlate coverage showed the token falling to $1.02, long liquidations accelerating, futures activity shrinking, and realized losses hitting the weakest reading since 2022.
A market can stabilize after sellers run out, but a sustained rebound requires new buyers to step in.
CryptoSlate’s XRP market data shows the token trading near $1.08, up about 2.7% over seven days, with a market value of about $67 billion.
Coinglass data shows roughly $402 million in 24-hour spot volume against about $2.25 billion in futures volume, with open interest around $2.35 billion and about $8.3 million in liquidations over the prior day.
Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the main market anchors, with BTC dominance at 58.2% and ETH dominance at 9.9%.
While those numbers show XRP’s setup has improved, they still don’t answer the main question about demand. Futures look much more balanced than they did during the washout, although derivatives still dominate XRP’s visible turnover. ETF demand has been steady in recent flow windows, but its scale remains too small to settle the question on its own.
The reset lowers risk, but demand still has to show up
Open interest provides useful context for position size by showing how many futures contracts are active in the market. It tracks contracts that traders still hold, which helps show how much leverage may still be exposed to the next price move.
CoinGlass’ open-interest guide noted that falling OI can reflect forced liquidations, voluntary exits, or traders reducing exposure as volatility rises.
That range of possible causes shows why XRP’s reset can cut both ways. On the bullish side, fewer crowded positions mean fewer traders are sitting at liquidation levels that can turn a normal price move into a chain of forced selling.
We’ve seen this happen at the end of June. XRP’s drop toward $1.07 triggered about $9 million in long liquidations, and XRP open interest fell to about $2.34 billion.
Futures turnover was also down to roughly $2.84 billion from more than $30 billion during the same period last year.
That is a real reduction in speculative pressure across the XRP derivatives market. It means XRP can climb from a smaller pile of leveraged long positions. A smaller rally from that base can be healthier because fewer distressed positions are being closed into every bounce.
The bearish case is that a lower-risk setup still needs a demand engine. If open interest stopped expanding because traders lost conviction, the absence of forced sellers could be what creates temporary relief.
The market still needs a replacement buyer, and the obvious candidates are spot traders and ETF allocators.
The current numbers keep the picture balanced. While spot volume is meaningful, futures volume still represents a much larger share of XRP’s visible trading activity in CoinGlass data.
Liquidations have moved out of the main headlines, but open interest remains large enough for XRP to become a leverage-driven trade again. That risk increases if traders rebuild positions faster than spot demand improves.
That leaves a practical hurdle for any sustained move. XRP can coexist with active derivatives markets, but it needs spot buying and ETF allocations to expand while leverage stays contained.
A bounce driven mainly by lower liquidation pressure can give the market time to stabilize. However, sustained strength requires buyers who can absorb future selling from holders waiting to exit near cost.
ETF demand has been steady, but scale is the caveat
The stronger case for a healthier XRP market comes from regulated products that have continued to draw selective interest during broader risk-off periods. These products are an important part of the market because they represent demand outside the high-leverage futures trade.
CryptoSlate’s recent institutional-flow coverage showed that from June 22 to June 26, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.79 billion and U.S. Ethereum ETFs lost about $273.5 million.
XRP spot ETFs took in $22.99 million during the same period. That flow was directionally important because it showed XRP products gained assets while the largest ETF complexes saw outflows.
However, it’s important to note that the signal also came at a limited scale, because XRP’s $22.99 million inflow sat beside roughly $2.06 billion in combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows.
That stops short of a wholesale rotation into XRP, but it points to selective buying in a market where institutions were still cutting broad crypto beta.
CoinShares’ June 1 fund-flow report carried a similar message. Digital asset investment products saw $1.67 billion of outflows, with Bitcoin losing $1.438 billion and Ethereum losing $257 million.
XRP was one of the few altcoins with meaningful positive demand, drawing $20.3 million. Again, the signal was positive, while the scale was modest compared with the capital leaving the largest assets.
The ETF inflows carry weight because they represent a different type of exposure from leveraged futures positions.
The Franklin XRP ETF S-1 says the fund is passive, seeks to reflect the price of XRP before expenses, and will avoid leverage, derivatives, or similar instruments.
Franklin’s launch release said XRPZ is structured as a grantor trust that holds XRP, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company serving as XRP custodian. The product page listed total net assets of $230.71 million as of June 7.
Grayscale’s GXRP page uses a similar passive framing, saying the fund is solely and passively invested in XRP. It also states that the fund seeks to reflect the value of XRP held by the trust, less expenses and liabilities.
There is a straightforward reason ETFs could provide stronger long-term support for XRP. ETF demand is much steadier than high-leverage futures activity because it moves through brokerage accounts, custody arrangements, and fund-share creation mechanics.
If allocations keep arriving, they can absorb XRP supply without depending on traders borrowing to make directional bets.
ETF demand becomes a dominant price force only when net creations are persistent enough to go against the rest of the market. Those creations are important because they indicate when ETF demand requires that underlying XRP enter the fund wrapper.
CryptoSlate’s earlier ETF analysis separated AUM from fresh buying because AUM can rise for several reasons. It can increase when price rises, when seed inventory exists, or when investors trade ETF shares with each other.
Net creations give a much better signal because they show the part of the ETF process that requires new XRP purchases. That makes them a more useful measure of direct ETF demand than AUM alone.
The next phase for XRP depends on whether a different buyer base is willing to take over after the worst of the wipeout.
Signal
Healthier signal
Weaker signal
Futures open interest
Stable or slowly rising while the price holds
Fast rebuild that recreates liquidation risk
Spot versus futures volume
Spot volume expands relative to derivatives
Rallies remain mostly futures-led
ETF flows
Positive net inflows continue through weak market days
AUM holds up, but net creations fade
Custody balances
ETF holdings keep absorbing supply
Custody growth stalls while price relies on leverage
A healthier XRP move can happen alongside active futures trading because liquid derivatives markets are normal for large tokens.
What would matter is balance: open interest that does not outrun spot buying, ETF flows that remain positive across several reports, and custody balances that show shares are backed by real XRP accumulation rather than secondary-market churn.
The available data is insufficient to prove that XRP’s rally is mostly short covering, though it shows why that explanation remains plausible enough to watch.
If price rises while futures volume dominates and open interest looks driven by position cleanup rather than fresh spot demand, the rally would be less convincing. If price holds while ETF inflows continue and spot volume improves, the market would show a stronger buyer base.
The most important shift is psychological. During the capitulation phase, XRP’s market was defined by traders who wanted to sell. After the wipeout, it’s defined by who actually wants to buy.
ETF demand and spot accumulation can answer that question when they appear in the data with enough persistence and scale. The flows need to be large and consistent enough to matter against futures activity and spot selling.
For now, XRP’s market structure is cleaner than it was during the late-June stress, which gives it a better starting point.
The next leg still has to show that ETF and spot buyers can provide stronger support than the relief created by the absence of forced sellers.
The Shiba Inu (SHIB) price has remained under strong pressure this year as weak demand and fading market momentum continue to weigh on the meme coin. Beyond the price decline, new data now show that Shiba Inu’s Open Interest (OI) has crashed by more than 30%, while its burn rate has also slowed significantly. The decline in these key metrics points to weakening investor interest, lower trading activity, and reduced network engagement. Combined with Shiba Inu’s ongoing price struggles, these growing bearish signals have raised concerns about whether Shiba Inu is losing the strength that once made it the second-largest meme coin in the crypto market.
Shiba Inu Open Interest Crashes As Price Plummets
On May 27, data from Coinglass revealed that Shiba Inu’s Open Interest had dropped by 6% to $49.4 million, signaling weakness in futures activity and a decline in investor confidence in the meme coin. During the same period, Shiba Inu’s futures flow plunged by a staggering 190%, with outflows reaching $5.6 million, far exceeding the previous inflows of around $4.74 million.
Notably, this sharp decline pushed the net difference to $865,790 in total closed Shiba Inu contracts within 24 hours. The heavy outflow also wiped out roughly 156.56 billion SHIB tokens from the futures market, underscoring the ongoing decline in speculative trading activity.
Fast forward to today, Shiba Inu’s Open Interest has dropped an additional 5.6% to around $46.44 million. This suggests that traders are still closing positions at a rapid pace as bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market. The continued decline in leverage activity also reflects weakening sentiment among short-term investors, with many appearing unwilling to place strong bullish bets on SHIB’s near-term recovery.
This bearish shift comes as the meme coin’s price experiences prolonged volatility and market swings. According to CoinMarketCap’s data, Shiba Inu has been on a steady decline throughout this month. Its price has fallen by over 14% in the last 30 days and by more than 63% year-to-date.
At the time of writing, the meme coin remains in the red, with its recent price correction driven by increased selling pressure and a drop in Bitcoin’s price. Other factors contributing to SHIB’s low price are the broader weakness in the meme coin market, which has also affected coins like Dogecoin (DOGE).
SHIB Burn Rate Dwindles To Surprising Lows
Another metric that has surprisingly taken a hit is Shiba Inu’s burn rate. According to the meme coin’s burn tracker, Shibburn, just $2 worth of SHIB tokens were burned on May 26, highlighting a sharp slowdown in activity and adding more pressure to the already bearish market.
Notably, the Shiba Inu ecosystem is widely known for conducting large-scale token burns, with many community members believing that a continued decline in supply could create sufficient scarcity to support a future price explosion. However, recent on-chain reports now show that this usually active burn mechanism has taken a pause.
Shibburn also revealed that only about $11 worth of tokens were burned over the last 24 hours, representing just over 2.05 million SHIB. In the past week, less than $100 worth of tokens was removed from circulation, indicating weakening interest in the meme coin and a clear lack of interest in helping reduce SHIB’s supply.
