Equity perpetual futures on major digital asset exchanges reached about $250 billion in monthly volume in July. That marks a seventeenfold jump from roughly $15 billion in April, showing how quickly the market has expanded in just three months.
According to analytics firm CryptoQuant, that expansion has turned crypto exchanges into round-the-clock venues for contracts linked to traditional equities. The products give users continuous access to familiar stocks without being limited by conventional market trading hours.
Binance Leads as AI and Chip Stocks Dominate Volume
Binance remained the dominant venue in July, handling roughly $193 billion in equity perpetual futures volume, equivalent to about 76% of the total market. Bitfer, Bybit, and Gate followed at a considerable distance.
CryptoQuant identified Gate as the fastest-growing venue during the month. Its equity perpetual futures volume increased by about 308% from June, compared with 176% for Bybit and 59% for Binance. The report also noted that Gate had recorded consecutive monthly growth since May.
Despite the broader rise in activity, trading remains concentrated across a small group of technology and semiconductor-related assets. SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron, and the leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL made up the core of what analysts describe as the AI-memory complex.
On Gate, in particular, the concentration was especially pronounced. SanDisk and SK Hynix together accounted for 53% of the exchange’s total equity perpetual futures volume last month.
Beyond Gate, the broader market also remained focused on companies linked to artificial intelligence and memory chips. This narrow concentration has made these assets the main focus of activity across the emerging equity perpetual market.
Crypto Platforms Push Beyond Traditional Assets
The products also reflect a broader shift in how digital asset exchanges are expanding beyond traditional cryptocurrency markets. Rather than focusing only on assets such as BTC and Ether, exchanges are offering perpetual contracts linked to traditional financial instruments.
At the same time, the approach allows crypto-native capital to access equity-linked products through infrastructure that operates continuously. The contracts therefore provide exposure to selected traditional assets while retaining the always-on structure associated with crypto markets.
However, CryptoQuant’s report shows a market that has expanded rapidly while remaining focused on a narrow group of assets. Whether activity eventually spreads across a broader range of equity perpetual contracts will depend on how the market develops beyond its current concentration.
Bitcoin’s bounce off Tuesday’s low near $63,200 is coming mostly from leveraged futures positioning, not real spot buying, according to CryptoQuant data cited by the analytics account XWIN Japan.
That’s the same setup that preceded April 2026’s failed rally, which is why some analysts are treating the current recovery as fragile until spot demand actually shows up.
Futures Are Leading, Spot Is Lagging
XWIN Japan laid out the numbers plainly: 30-day perpetual futures demand has turned positive again, while on-chain spot demand remains negative. Traders, in other words, are adding leveraged exposure before real spot buying has caught up.
The account pointed to April 2026 as the precedent, when Bitcoin ran from roughly $66,000 to $79,000 on rising futures demand while spot stayed weak, and the rally eventually faded once that leverage unwound.
One difference this time is that US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have started recovering too. As XWIN Japan put it, “the key question is not simply whether Bitcoin is rising.”
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, had made a near-identical call earlier in the day: open interest is climbing while on-chain spot demand stays negative, and “a sustainable rally needs both spot and future demand.”
He’d said almost the same thing on April 27, noting that Bitcoin was futures-driven even with ETF inflows and Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchases in play, and that bear markets historically only end once spot and futures demand recover together.
Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 at the time of writing, having oscillated within a 24-hour range of roughly $63,200 to $64,400 per CoinGecko data.
Price Under Pressure, and a Familiar Setup
It’s been a choppy stretch for the asset as it first got turned back at $65,000 earlier this month after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, then rallied a few hundred bucks above that same level on a weak US jobs report last Friday before getting rejected there again on Monday. It slipped as low as the aforementioned $63,200 on Tuesday, a nine-day low, before clawing back some ground.
Zoom out, and the picture softens further: BTC is up only 1.4% across 30 days and still down 46% from a year ago. Its market cap sits near $1.28 trillion, with dominance over the rest of the crypto market just over 57%.
Other traders are watching the same tension play out technically. Glassnode data shows 54.6% of Bitcoin’s supply still sitting in profit even as the price has stuck in the $63,500 to $65,000 band, with the firm treating $65,000 as the level that would need to break before anyone calls a bottom confirmed.
A weekly chart shared separately by trader Titan adds another wrinkle: the same moving-average crossover that preceded Bitcoin’s three prior cycle bottoms, in 2015, 2019, and 2022, has just printed again, with price sitting in the same zone the chart flags as a potential bottoming range.
That lines up with XWIN Japan’s framing regardless: the rebound holds together only if spot buying, ETF flows, and futures demand all turn up together, and if open interest keeps climbing without spot behind it, the setup looks like April all over again.
Bitcoin’s rebound has not removed the risk of another volatile move. CryptoQuant is warning that exchange deposit activity has picked up across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, a pattern that often appears when traders are preparing to move risk around quickly.
That does not automatically mean a crash is coming. It does mean the market is becoming more sensitive.
For more details, visit the official Cryptoquant platform.
TL;DR
CryptoQuant’s latest market read points to a jump in exchange deposits, including elevated Bitcoin inflows. Rising deposits can be a volatility signal because coins moving to exchanges are more likely to be sold, hedged, rotated, or used as collateral.
The important word is “can.” On-chain deposits are not a perfect sell signal. Sometimes coins move to exchanges for liquidity management, derivative margin, or market-making activity. But when deposits spike while price is already under pressure, traders tend to pay attention.
That is the situation Bitcoin is in now. BTC has stabilised, but the wider market still feels jumpy. ETF flows have been uneven, altcoins are fragile, and macro risk appetite is not giving crypto a clean tailwind.
Why Deposits Matter Here
Exchange inflows matter because they change the available supply profile. Coins sitting in cold storage are usually less likely to hit the market quickly. Coins arriving on exchanges are more flexible. They can be sold, used to open positions, or shifted into other assets.
When a large number of coins arrives at once, the market starts asking why.
If the inflow is driven by whales preparing to sell, spot pressure can build. If it is linked to derivatives positioning, volatility can rise even if the coins are not immediately dumped. If it reflects market makers preparing for higher activity, price can swing both ways.
That is why the signal is more about volatility than direction. The market is being primed for movement.
Bitcoin Needs More Than A Bounce
Bitcoin’s short-term recovery gives bulls room to argue that sellers are losing control. But on-chain deposit pressure complicates that argument.
A healthy rebound usually wants to see coins moving away from exchanges, not toward them. It wants accumulation, calmer leverage, and improving flows. If deposits keep rising, traders may stay defensive even while price holds above recent lows.
The next phase will depend on whether those deposited coins become sell pressure. If Bitcoin absorbs the inflows and holds its recovery, that would be a constructive sign. It would show that the market can handle supply without breaking.
If price rolls over while deposits remain elevated, the CryptoQuant warning will look more serious.
For now, this is not a panic signal. It is a caution flag. Bitcoin has bounced, but the market is still loaded with enough exchange-side activity to make the next move sharp.
This report is based on information from CryptoQuant.
The practical takeaway is that traders should avoid reading the current rebound in isolation. A market can look stable on the surface while exchange-side liquidity is preparing for a larger move. That is why deposit data belongs next to ETF flows, funding conditions, and spot support levels when assessing Bitcoin risk this week.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Bitcoin’s break below the $60,000 area has pushed digital asset markets into a more defensive phase, ending months of narrow trading and exposing a market structure that traders say could amplify the next major move.
CryptoSlate’s data show the largest cryptocurrency had been moving sideways since February, when it first tested the $60,000 area.
That long consolidation made the level a widely watched marker for traders, even as macro risks, spot exchange-traded fund outflows and concerns around corporate Bitcoin holders weighed on sentiment.
As a result, the latest decline points to a more fragile setup where large amounts of Bitcoin have moved toward major exchanges, open interest is rising while spot prices remain weak, and professional traders are paying more to protect against another leg lower.
Bitcoin’s break turns exchange flows into a supply test
The clearest sign of stress has appeared in exchange-linked flows.
CryptoQuant data show more than 550,000 BTC moved to deposit addresses linked to Binance and OKX after Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 area. Binance-linked deposit addresses received more than 220,000 BTC, while OKX-linked addresses received more than 330,000 BTC.
Those figures are well above this year’s normal readings. Binance has averaged about 60,000 BTC in comparable inflows, while OKX has averaged about 95,000 BTC, according to CryptoQuant data.
The latest transfers are the largest of the year and resemble levels last seen during the 2023 bear market.
Bitcoin Exchange Transfers (Source: CryptoQuant)
In cryptocurrency market architecture, a sudden transfer of coins to exchange deposit addresses functions as an initial operational indicator of intent. Users typically route assets to these specific points before funds are aggregated into a platform’s central hot wallets for execution, lending, or collateral assignment.
Still, the timing gives the data more weight. Large transfers toward exchanges during a price decline often raise concern that more supply could become available if the market weakens further.
In a market already trading below a level many investors had watched for months, that potential supply overhang can make rebounds harder to sustain.
The flow also reflects how range-bound markets can become unstable once a familiar level breaks. When traders spend months reacting to the same zone, risk controls, hedges and stop-loss decisions can cluster around it. Once the level gives way, many participants reassess exposure at the same time.
That is why the exchange data are central to the current setup. The market is not only dealing with a lower Bitcoin price. It is also dealing with the possibility that more coins have moved closer to venues where holders can act quickly.
Valuation reset reduces excess, but not volatility risk
The exchange flows are arriving as Bitcoin’s on-chain valuation metrics show that much of the earlier cycle’s excess has already been compressed.
CryptoQuant’s MVRV Z-Score shows Bitcoin’s valuation premium has fallen sharply, moving closer to historical low-valuation areas.
The MVRV framework compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value. Market value reflects the current price of circulating coins, while realized value estimates the network’s aggregate cost basis by valuing each coin at the price where it last moved on-chain.
Bitcoin MVRV Score (Source: CryptoQuant)
When market value trades far above realized value, unrealized profits are usually elevated and cyclical risk tends to rise. As the gap narrows, profitability declines, and some speculative pressure eases.
The Z-Score adjusts that relationship by measuring the distance between market value and realized value against Bitcoin’s historical market-cap deviation. That helps traders judge whether Bitcoin is trading near unusually stretched or compressed valuation levels compared with its own history.
The current reading suggests the market has moved closer to reset territory.
However, the indicator does not identify a precise bottom. Bitcoin has traded near cheaper valuation zones before while prices continued to weaken, particularly during periods of poor liquidity, forced selling, or macro stress.
That distinction is important now because valuation and positioning are sending different messages. On-chain data suggest the market is less stretched than it was earlier in the cycle. Market structure data suggest traders are still preparing for a disorderly move.
CryptoQuant data show funding rates across major exchanges have moved back into positive territory while Bitcoin remains weak around the $59,000 to $60,000 area. Positive funding generally means traders holding long positions are paying shorts, a sign that demand for bullish exposure has returned after a more negative stretch.
At the same time, open interest is rising while spot prices remain soft. That means new positions are being built into the decline rather than risk leaving the system.
The combination can make price action more sensitive. If Bitcoin falls further, newly opened long positions could come under pressure. If the market rebounds sharply, traders positioned for more downside may be forced to cover.
Either outcome could make the next move larger than the spot market alone would suggest.
Downside hedges build as institutional interest weakens
To manage this heightened structural uncertainty, institutional traders are aggressively building a defensive position in the options markets.
Singapore-based digital asset trading firm QCP Capital reports that implied volatility metrics are trending systematically higher as market participants pay a premium for downside protection.
According to the firm, demand has centered on July-expiry Bitcoin put options with strike prices between $55,000 and $58,000.
Data from the digital asset derivatives exchange Deribit reinforces this narrative, showing roughly $1.2 billion in open interest clustered specifically at the $55,000 and $50,000 strike zones.
Bitcoin Options Positioning (Source: Deribit)
Compounding this defensive positioning is a structural shift in institutional capital flows.
Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reveals that institutional demand is no longer acting as a reliable sponge for circulating supply. Over the past month, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shed approximately 71,600 BTC, while digital asset trusts added only a marginal 7,500 BTC.
When adjusted for network issuance, the combined net institutional capital flow is -77,000 BTC.
Bitcoin ETF and DAT Companies Flow (Source: Glassnode)
According to Glassnode’s analysis, any near-term spot market recovery will face immediate friction from this persistent wrapper supply overhang until net flows reverse.
This institutional deleveraging trend is explicitly quantified by BlockScholes, whose proprietary Bitcoin risk indices have remained fixed below the -1.0 threshold for more than 23 consecutive days.
BlockScholes notes that the longevity of this trend marks a departure from typical cyclical dips, signaling an ongoing, structural risk reduction by institutional allocators that will likely require a fundamental macroeconomic or industry-specific catalyst to alter.
That leaves Bitcoin in a fragile position after its break below the $60,000 area. On-chain valuation metrics suggest the market has already shed much of its earlier excess, but exchange flows, options positioning, and institutional demand all point to a market still preparing for stress.
The immediate test is whether spot demand can absorb the supply now sitting closer to exchanges. If demand improves, defensive positioning could help fuel a rebound.
If it does not, the same structure could turn the $60,000 break into a broader shock to volatility.
Despite the bears still being in control, the Bitcoin network is seeing a surge in transaction activity. Given the nature of this network activity, market participants may wonder whether the development is a bullish signal or a cause for concern.
According to this week’s CryptoQuant report, record-high transaction counts are driving the surge in Bitcoin network activity. The only issue is that these transactions have little, non-significant economic value.
Bitcoin Network Activity is Surging
CryptoQuant analysts explained that Bitcoin’s network activity turned sharply positive and broke above trend for the first time since late 2024. This is evident in the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, which has been rising steadily since the beginning of this year. However, the index noted a major regime shift from March 2026, drawing a sharp contrast with bitcoin’s ongoing price decline.
Currently, the Bitcoin network activity is roughly 7% below its all-time high reached in September 2024. Both total daily transactions and average transactions per block are near their all-time high. Daily transactions have surged to levels above 800,000, hovering near readings of the 2023-2025 bull cycle.
“Mean transactions per block (right chart) have also risen sharply, reflecting high and sustained block utilization from the transaction count perspective. Both metrics have maintained elevated readings for several weeks, confirming the surge is structural,” analysts explained.
No Significant Economic Activity
Although these transactions are reaching yearly peaks, their economic content is significantly lower than surges from previous high-activity periods. About 80% of these micro-transactions are below 0.01 BTC, up from 50% in 2023. The sub-0.001 BTC cohorts have also skyrocketed in 2026, approaching prior peaks of 2024. The current dynamic reflects protocol-driven activity where volume is high but transferred value per transaction remains low.
Notably, the micro-transaction surge correlates with a rise in OP_RETURN opcode usage, which is used by data-inscription protocols like Runes and Ordinals. The opcode, which embeds up to 100,000 bytes of data without creating spendable outputs, has spiked to near-record levels this year. The protocols associated with the opcode generate high volumes of dust-value transactions, so this explains the low-value cohort surge.
Meanwhile, the surge in both micro-transactions and OP-RETURN has pushed the Bitcoin mempool to its highest transaction count since late February 2025. Analysts worry that this sustained expansion in non-financial on-chain activity could increase block space competition and raise fees for economic transactions.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing how crypto and traditional markets get traded, yet four leading analysts agree it rewards skill rather than replacing it. The edge in AI in crypto trading still comes from clean data and human judgment.
Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments and Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant call AI an accelerant for serious research. Benjamin Cowen and Michael van de Poppe, speaking on a separate panel, reach the same conclusion from the trading desk.
Four Analysts, One Conclusion
On-chain analytics and AI tools have moved from niche to mainstream across crypto research. Two BeInCrypto panels gathered four analysts who use them every day.
Edwards founded Capriole Investments, a quantitative Bitcoin (BTC) hedge fund. Moreno serves as Head of Research at CryptoQuant. Cowen and van de Poppe are widely followed, independent market analysts.
Speaking at the Market Intelligence Council, Edwards said AI shifts the opportunity toward those who do the work.
“I think AI as well is making that… playing field more opportunistic for certain people.”
On a separate panel, van de Poppe set the limit plainly.
“It’s not going to make you a great trader if you weren’t a good trader in the first place.”
Where AI Already Helps
The clearest gains show up in routine research. AI now compresses tasks that once took hours.
Edwards pointed to faster analysis as the main benefit.
“The tool sets to do that are much more powerful and… it can be done more quickly today with AI.”
Van de Poppe showed how accessible this has become. He built a sample crypto portfolio using a chatbot and free data feeds. Tools like AI agents now pull live market data on demand.
“You can build a portfolio and a dashboard of cryptocurrencies within five minutes with just free APIs.”
Van de Poppe demonstrates a crypto portfolio built by Claude, scored on technicals, fundamentals, and on-chain flow. Source: YouTube
Why AI Still Needs a Human
Speed does not equal skill. Van de Poppe noted that his AI portfolio missed important context.
“It didn’t create a basket of uncorrelated cryptos… it doesn’t have any macros in there.”
He said judgment fills that gap.
“That’s where the human knowledge and experience comes in and the intuition… That the AI agent doesn’t have or the LLM.”
He also warned against treating AI as magic. The tool will not deliver “some sort of magic that creates an infinite money loop.” That caution matches the wider market, where few experts back hands-off trading bots.
Moreno said institutions trust data but keep testing it.
“They do trust it but they verify a lot, and are continuously monitoring if the data remains relevant.”
Inside the Models
Professional funds treat AI as infrastructure, not a crystal ball. Edwards built his firm around large, tested models.
“We build hundreds of metrics and we also use hundreds of other data sources to build out comprehensive models… Combining onchain technicals and macro data for many years to build out trading models.”
Capriole’s Macro Index reflects that approach. The firm combines more than 60 on-chain, macro, and equities metrics into one machine-learning model. Most data platforms publish thousands of metrics, yet models still need careful curation.
Capriole’s Macro Index blends more than 60 metrics into a single machine-learning oscillator, shown here below Bitcoin price / Source: X
Cowen is building his own bot from the ground up.
“Right now all the bot does really is regurgitates things that I say. It’s almost like an AI version of me.”
He avoids training on low-quality AI output to prevent model decay.
“I don’t want it to use AI slop that’s out there to create more AI slop”
Van de Poppe runs his fund the same way. AI writes the base of his trading algorithms, but a human keeps steering it, or it keeps “working on stuff that is wrong for your system.”
The Data Behind the Models
Every model depends on the data beneath it. Moreno gave the sharpest example of a data edge.
“They will trade for example mining stocks instead of waiting for your quarterly report you’re tracking in real time actually what they’re mining.”
Network hashrate offers one such real-time signal. It tracks how much computing power miners commit to Bitcoin each day.
Bitcoin network hashrate, a real-time gauge of mining activity, has climbed alongside price since 2022 / Source: CryptoQuant
The same method applies to equity exchanges. Bitcoin miner stocks have drawn fresh attention as AI infrastructure spending climbs. Julio Moreno continues:
“Some of the crypto exchanges have also started trading on stock exchange and so you can be monitoring the trading volume to assess the revenues.”
Cowen added that data quality decides the outcome. He values records from before the AI era.
“Data before 2022 in some ways is actually really valuable because it was data before all the AI stuff was even here.”
For institutions and retail traders alike, the lesson holds. AI compresses the work and widens access, but the advantage flows to operators with clean data and the judgment to steer the model. As adoption spreads, that judgment becomes the real differentiator.
Bitcoin’s blockchain is showing its strongest activity since late 2024, creating a rare split between rising network use and a weakening market price.
CryptoQuant said in a note shared with CryptoSlate that its Bitcoin Network Activity Index has moved above its long-term trend for the first time since mid-2024.
The index has climbed steadily since January and recently reached its highest level since late 2024, leaving it only about 7% below the record reached in September 2024.
Bitcoin Network Activity (Source: CryptoQuant)
The shift began in late March and has held for several weeks, suggesting that the rebound in activity is more than a one-day spike.
Meanwhile, the rise in network activity comes as the Bitcoin price remains under significant selling pressure.
The largest cryptocurrency has fallen about 30% this year to below $65,000, according to CryptoSlate data, extending a slide of more than 50% from its late-2025 record near $126,000 as months of selling pressure and weaker risk appetite weigh on the market.
Small transfers drive the rebound
The network rebound is being driven mainly by transaction counts rather than large-value settlement.
CryptoQuant data shows total daily Bitcoin transactions rising above 800,000 at points in 2026, near the strongest readings of the 2023-2025 cycle and more than double the lows seen in 2025. Average transactions per block have also climbed, showing sustained block use from a transaction-count perspective.
The composition of that activity is the more important part of the story.
Transactions worth less than 0.01 BTC now account for about 80% of daily Bitcoin transaction counts, CryptoQuant said. That is up from roughly 44% in 2023.
Bitcoin Total Transactions (Source: CryptoQuant)
The smallest cohorts, including transactions below 0.001 BTC and below 0.01 BTC, have surged this year and are approaching the previous peak reached in 2024.
That means Bitcoin’s network is busier, but much of the growth is coming from very small transfers. In market terms, the blockchain is processing more messages, but not necessarily moving proportionally more economic value.
The pattern resembles prior bursts of protocol-driven activity on Bitcoin, when token experiments, inscriptions, and data services increased transaction counts without matching the value profile of traditional BTC transfers.
OP_RETURN use points to data-heavy demand
The rise in small transfers has coincided with a sharp increase in OP_RETURN usage.
OP_RETURN is used to attach data to Bitcoin transactions without creating spendable outputs. That has made it a common tool for data-layer activity on Bitcoin, including token-related transfers, timestamping, and inscription-adjacent use cases.
CryptoQuant said OP_RETURN outputs have climbed to near-record levels this year, with the increase linked to activity from Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20-style markets, and other data-writing services.
Bitcoin OP_RETURN Code Use (Source: CryptoQuant)
These systems can generate large numbers of low-value transactions because the economic payload is often the data attached to the transaction rather than the amount of BTC being transferred.
That helps explain why the network activity index is rising while the price remains weak. The new activity reflects demand for Bitcoin block space, but it is not the same thing as a broad recovery in investor appetite for BTC.
It also complicates the long-running debate over Bitcoin’s use case. Supporters may view the surge as evidence that Bitcoin is becoming a more active settlement layer for new types of on-chain activity.
However, critics may see it as congestion from transactions that do little to support Bitcoin’s monetary role.
For now, the data supports both readings to some degree. Bitcoin is being used more. But the use is concentrated in small transactions that differ from the financial transfers many investors associate with durable network demand.
Mempool congestion returns, but fees stay low
The jump in micro-transactions has started to affect the mempool, where unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions wait before being added to blocks.
CryptoQuant said the Bitcoin mempool transaction count has risen to about 128,000, the highest since late February 2025. The congestion is concentrated in low-fee transactions, consistent with the increase in OP_RETURN and micro-transaction activity.
The current backlog remains well below the extreme peaks seen in September 2023 and November 2024. Still, the increase shows that non-financial or low-value activity is taking up a larger share of Bitcoin transaction flow.
That could become more important if the trend continues. Higher competition for block space can push up fees, especially for users who need time-sensitive settlement.
In past cycles, congestion from inscriptions and token-related activity created brief periods of elevated fees and renewed debate over whether Bitcoin’s block space should be used primarily for monetary transfers or broader data applications.
So far, the latest activity burst has not produced a comparable fee boom.
YCharts data, based on Blockchain.com figures, showed daily Bitcoin transaction fees at 3.458 BTC on June 18, down 50.25% from a year earlier.
Bitcoin Average Network Fees (Source: BitInfoCharts)
That gap is central to the current story. Transaction counts are rising, but the fee market has not followed with the same force.
Miner revenue remains the weak link
The muted fee response matters because Bitcoin miners have relied more heavily on transaction fees since the April 2024 halving cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC.
At roughly 144 blocks a day, the subsidy remains the main source of miner revenue. Fees contribute only a small share in BTC terms when network costs are low, limiting the direct financial benefit miners receive from higher transaction counts.
That makes the current activity surge less straightforward than prior periods when congestion produced large fee spikes. More transactions can signal stronger demand for block space, but if those transactions are low-value and low-fee, the impact on miner economics remains limited.
The result is a mixed signal for the Bitcoin market.
On one hand, the blockchain is seeing its strongest activity in nearly two years, driven by real demand for small transactions and data-linked use cases.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure, sellers still dominate the short-term market structure, and the fee market has not shown that users are willing to pay significantly more for settlement.
That leaves Bitcoin with a busy network but an unresolved market question: whether this new wave of activity can become durable economic demand, or whether it remains another burst of low-value traffic that fills blocks without changing the broader investment picture.
Following the recent uptick in altcoin prices, conversations about the potential start of an altseason are gaining significant momentum. Interestingly, recent on-chain data about the rising altcoin trading volume has added some weight to the altseason discussions.
Altcoin Trading Volume Climbs Above Yearly Average
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain revealed a critical change in the altcoin market. Citing the “CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs Top 5” metric, the market analyst explained that the altcoin trading volume has been in an uptrend lately.
The “CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs Top 5” metric tracks how much trading volume is flowing into altcoins outside the top 5, relative to the combined volume of the top 5 assets. As such, it plays a key role in identifying the extent of capital rotation and whether altcoins have started to gain strength.
According to CryptoOnchain, the 30-day moving average of altcoin trading volume has now climbed past its 365-day moving average. This trend, explained the analyst, shows that the volume of this sub-asset class is steadily increasing.
Higher readings in the CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs. Top 5 are telltale signs that traders are leaning towards smaller altcoins rather than into major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and BNB). This, in turn, is interpreted as growing risk appetite, which could positively influence an altcoin rally.
The market analyst cited historical data, noting that instances where the signals flashed mostly reflected short-term volume growth relative to the long-term baseline. These cases have also signaled “clear rotation of capital from major caps into mid and low-cap altcoins.”
For example, during the 2021 bull cycle, repeated clusters of these signals coincided with explosive rallies across the altcoins’ sector, alongside a major price appreciation in Ethereum.
Notably, the chart shared by CryptoOnchain shows the purple “Volume Ratio” line gradually strengthening again after a period of weakness. The analyst noted that a breakout in the ratio could precede high-volatility periods, potentially increasing the likelihood of an altcoin market rally.
Ethereum Stability Could Confirm Imminent Altcoin Rally
CryptoOnchain further explained that the reinvigoration of the altcoin trading volume could be a sign that “retail and institutional interest is expanding beyond the top 5 assets.” However, this does not necessarily translate to bullish news for the altcoin market.
According to the crypto pundit, confirmation from Ethereum’s price action might be necessary to determine the market’s inner dynamics.
CryptoOnchain explained:
If this momentum is sustained and accompanied by a stable or rising ETH price, it could serve as a strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway.
As of press time, the Ethereum price stands at $2,329, up 1% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
The XRP price seems to have encountered significant resistance to its growth over the week. As of Wednesday, April 22, the cryptocurrency tried but failed to close above $1.4540, and subsequent movements did not even reach the resistance region.
While the XRP price continues to struggle, recent on-chain analysis suggests momentum might be building right beneath the surface. Hence, in the presence of the right conditions, the growing momentum could be the much-needed fuel for XRP’s breakout from its present stalemate.
Whale Outflows On Binance Rise To 94.4%
In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, analyst Amr Taha highlighted a growing divergence between XRP retail and whale outflows on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. The relevant indicator here is the Binance Whale Vs Retail Outflow Dominance metric.
According to the analyst, Binance XRP outflows are now being driven more by its larger holders than by retail investors. In their CryptoQuant post, Taha pointed out that the whale outflow dominance has climbed as high as 94.4%, while retailers, on the other hand, have a mere 5.5% influence on XRP’s flows out of Binance.
The crypto expert further noted that when readings from the Outflow Dominance metric return to levels similar to the current readings, it signals that larger-sized transfers are taking over. Interestingly, October 2024 was one such moment, followed by a similar reading in June 2025.
Taha further noted that when this happens, the XRP price has a good chance of bouncing higher in the near term. An example can be seen after the rise in Whale Outflow Dominance seen in October, where XRP surged by over 525%; meanwhile, a 71% bullish move after a similar pattern in June 2025 also supports the notion.
XRP Displays Triangle Pattern On Hourly Timeframe
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez noted in a recent post on X that a symmetrical technical structure is developing on XRP’s 1-hour chart, which could have a greater impact in the near term. The symmetrical triangle pattern typically signals indecision and consolidation, as price progressively forms lower highs and higher lows.
In the chart shared by the analyst, XRP has made contact with the upper and lower boundaries of the triangle and seems to be heading towards another boundary once again. What’s special about this pattern is what comes after a clear breakout; a surge to the upside of the triangle could signal a bullish shift, while a breakdown could signal bearish intent.
According to Martinez, the current triangle pattern could precede a 10% move on a breakout. Hence, market participants should proceed with caution or only after clear directional confirmation.
As of this writing, XRP is valued at $1.44, with CoinGecko data reflecting a 0.7% growth over the past day.
Bitcoin seems to have finally broken out of weeks of stagnation with an 11% rally, signaling a notable shift in its market momentum. Expectedly, this move has drawn renewed attention from various market participants who may be eager to re-enter the market.
However, an influential on-chain analyst has come out to explain why Bitcoin traders should be cautious during this phase of the cycle. According to the market pundit, the most optimal entry point might actually not be close to current price levels.
MVRV Ratio, Realized Price Reveal Short-Term Strength, But Not Market Top
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst GugaOnchain delved into the reasons why it might not be time to re-enter the Bitcoin market. The pundit began by highlighting changes in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, alongside that from the Realized Price metric.
According to GugaOnchain, the MVRV ratio currently sits above its 30-day moving average of 1.2947, indicating that Bitcoin’s recent upward price movement has gained validity. Supporting this trend, the Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has also shown increased buying aggression, reinforcing the notion that market participants are actively pushing prices higher.
Meanwhile, the bigger macroeconomic picture shows that the market is yet to enter an overheated phase. This is because the current MVRV reading around 1.3856 is significantly lower than the SMA-365 (known as the macro line), which stands at around 1.8620.
Technical Indicators Signal Overextended Bitcoin Market — Correction Next?
From a price action perspective, though, the Bitcoin price might indeed be due for a retracement. According to the market pundit, Bitcoin recently broke out of an ascending channel resistance on the daily timeframe — a move typical of bullish continuations.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now showing signs of strain. This is due to recent RSI readings at 67.85, which stands near the overbought region at 70.
As such, the Bitcoin market has higher chances of a pullback in the near-term. The analyst then concluded that it would be best to buy Bitcoin “not at this resistance breakout,” but at the bottom of the retracement instead.
In the scenario where the Bitcoin price pulls back, the crypto expert explained that this would be towards a “channel support” — specifically at levels between $70,000 and $65,000. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $77,014, reflecting a 2.8% jump since the past day.
