Following the recent uptick in altcoin prices, conversations about the potential start of an altseason are gaining significant momentum. Interestingly, recent on-chain data about the rising altcoin trading volume has added some weight to the altseason discussions.
Altcoin Trading Volume Climbs Above Yearly Average
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain revealed a critical change in the altcoin market. Citing the “CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs Top 5” metric, the market analyst explained that the altcoin trading volume has been in an uptrend lately.
The “CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs Top 5” metric tracks how much trading volume is flowing into altcoins outside the top 5, relative to the combined volume of the top 5 assets. As such, it plays a key role in identifying the extent of capital rotation and whether altcoins have started to gain strength.
According to CryptoOnchain, the 30-day moving average of altcoin trading volume has now climbed past its 365-day moving average. This trend, explained the analyst, shows that the volume of this sub-asset class is steadily increasing.
Higher readings in the CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs. Top 5 are telltale signs that traders are leaning towards smaller altcoins rather than into major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and BNB). This, in turn, is interpreted as growing risk appetite, which could positively influence an altcoin rally.
The market analyst cited historical data, noting that instances where the signals flashed mostly reflected short-term volume growth relative to the long-term baseline. These cases have also signaled “clear rotation of capital from major caps into mid and low-cap altcoins.”
For example, during the 2021 bull cycle, repeated clusters of these signals coincided with explosive rallies across the altcoins’ sector, alongside a major price appreciation in Ethereum.
Notably, the chart shared by CryptoOnchain shows the purple “Volume Ratio” line gradually strengthening again after a period of weakness. The analyst noted that a breakout in the ratio could precede high-volatility periods, potentially increasing the likelihood of an altcoin market rally.
Ethereum Stability Could Confirm Imminent Altcoin Rally
CryptoOnchain further explained that the reinvigoration of the altcoin trading volume could be a sign that “retail and institutional interest is expanding beyond the top 5 assets.” However, this does not necessarily translate to bullish news for the altcoin market.
According to the crypto pundit, confirmation from Ethereum’s price action might be necessary to determine the market’s inner dynamics.
CryptoOnchain explained:
If this momentum is sustained and accompanied by a stable or rising ETH price, it could serve as a strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway.
As of press time, the Ethereum price stands at $2,329, up 1% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
The XRP price seems to have encountered significant resistance to its growth over the week. As of Wednesday, April 22, the cryptocurrency tried but failed to close above $1.4540, and subsequent movements did not even reach the resistance region.
While the XRP price continues to struggle, recent on-chain analysis suggests momentum might be building right beneath the surface. Hence, in the presence of the right conditions, the growing momentum could be the much-needed fuel for XRP’s breakout from its present stalemate.
Whale Outflows On Binance Rise To 94.4%
In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, analyst Amr Taha highlighted a growing divergence between XRP retail and whale outflows on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. The relevant indicator here is the Binance Whale Vs Retail Outflow Dominance metric.
According to the analyst, Binance XRP outflows are now being driven more by its larger holders than by retail investors. In their CryptoQuant post, Taha pointed out that the whale outflow dominance has climbed as high as 94.4%, while retailers, on the other hand, have a mere 5.5% influence on XRP’s flows out of Binance.
The crypto expert further noted that when readings from the Outflow Dominance metric return to levels similar to the current readings, it signals that larger-sized transfers are taking over. Interestingly, October 2024 was one such moment, followed by a similar reading in June 2025.
Taha further noted that when this happens, the XRP price has a good chance of bouncing higher in the near term. An example can be seen after the rise in Whale Outflow Dominance seen in October, where XRP surged by over 525%; meanwhile, a 71% bullish move after a similar pattern in June 2025 also supports the notion.
XRP Displays Triangle Pattern On Hourly Timeframe
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez noted in a recent post on X that a symmetrical technical structure is developing on XRP’s 1-hour chart, which could have a greater impact in the near term. The symmetrical triangle pattern typically signals indecision and consolidation, as price progressively forms lower highs and higher lows.
In the chart shared by the analyst, XRP has made contact with the upper and lower boundaries of the triangle and seems to be heading towards another boundary once again. What’s special about this pattern is what comes after a clear breakout; a surge to the upside of the triangle could signal a bullish shift, while a breakdown could signal bearish intent.
According to Martinez, the current triangle pattern could precede a 10% move on a breakout. Hence, market participants should proceed with caution or only after clear directional confirmation.
As of this writing, XRP is valued at $1.44, with CoinGecko data reflecting a 0.7% growth over the past day.
Bitcoin seems to have finally broken out of weeks of stagnation with an 11% rally, signaling a notable shift in its market momentum. Expectedly, this move has drawn renewed attention from various market participants who may be eager to re-enter the market.
However, an influential on-chain analyst has come out to explain why Bitcoin traders should be cautious during this phase of the cycle. According to the market pundit, the most optimal entry point might actually not be close to current price levels.
MVRV Ratio, Realized Price Reveal Short-Term Strength, But Not Market Top
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst GugaOnchain delved into the reasons why it might not be time to re-enter the Bitcoin market. The pundit began by highlighting changes in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, alongside that from the Realized Price metric.
According to GugaOnchain, the MVRV ratio currently sits above its 30-day moving average of 1.2947, indicating that Bitcoin’s recent upward price movement has gained validity. Supporting this trend, the Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has also shown increased buying aggression, reinforcing the notion that market participants are actively pushing prices higher.
Meanwhile, the bigger macroeconomic picture shows that the market is yet to enter an overheated phase. This is because the current MVRV reading around 1.3856 is significantly lower than the SMA-365 (known as the macro line), which stands at around 1.8620.
Technical Indicators Signal Overextended Bitcoin Market — Correction Next?
From a price action perspective, though, the Bitcoin price might indeed be due for a retracement. According to the market pundit, Bitcoin recently broke out of an ascending channel resistance on the daily timeframe — a move typical of bullish continuations.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now showing signs of strain. This is due to recent RSI readings at 67.85, which stands near the overbought region at 70.
As such, the Bitcoin market has higher chances of a pullback in the near-term. The analyst then concluded that it would be best to buy Bitcoin “not at this resistance breakout,” but at the bottom of the retracement instead.
In the scenario where the Bitcoin price pulls back, the crypto expert explained that this would be towards a “channel support” — specifically at levels between $70,000 and $65,000. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $77,014, reflecting a 2.8% jump since the past day.
The corporate Bitcoin treasury boom is losing oxygen: a $100 billion public-company bet has shrunk, buying has collapsed outside Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and the financing model that drove the trade is starting to fail.
Data from CryptoQuant show that the Michael Saylor-led company bought about 45,000 Bitcoin over the last 30 days, the largest 30-day haul since April 2025.
Over the same period, all other Bitcoin treasury companies combined purchased about 1,000 Bitcoin, down about 99% from the 69,000 BTC they bought at the peak of the trade in August 2025.
CryptoQuant noted that the gap has widened to the point that Strategy now accounts for about 98% of all Bitcoin bought by treasury firms over the past month.
Last October, the balance looked very different, with companies outside Strategy responsible for about 95% of net purchases during a period when corporate buying was spreading across a wider list of names.
That shift has left Strategy as the dominant source of incremental treasury demand in a sector that, only months ago, was being promoted as a broader corporate movement tied to Bitcoin’s rally and to publicly listed companies’ ability to use their stocks as financing tools.
Participation shrinks beyond Strategy
The slowdown outside Strategy is showing up not only in the size of purchases but also in the number of companies still participating.
Treasury companies other than Strategy made 13 Bitcoin purchases in the last 30 days, down 76% from the 54 recorded in August 2025, when corporate activity was at its peak. Strategy, by contrast, has maintained a steadier pace, posting about 4 to 5 purchases each 30-day period.
The numbers point to a market where both the depth and breadth of demand have weakened. Fewer companies are buying, and those that remain active are deploying less capital than they did during the peak of the trade.
That change has altered the makeup of the sector. While Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have grown by about 90,000 Bitcoin so far this year, other treasury companies together have added a net 4,000 Bitcoin over the same period.
As a result, their share of total corporate treasury holdings has slipped from 26% in November 2025 to 24% now, while Strategy’s share has continued to climb.
Strategy now holds about 76% of all Bitcoin owned by treasury companies. The next two largest holders, XXI and Metaplanet, account for 4.3% and 3.5%, respectively.
For a sector that expanded quickly as rising Bitcoin prices pulled in new entrants, the concentration is becoming harder to ignore.
The corporate treasury model gained momentum last year as Bitcoin rose and public-market investors rewarded listed companies that offered leveraged exposure to the asset.
As Bitcoin climbed, many companies were able to issue shares at premiums to the value of the BTC already on their balance sheets.
That gave them a way to raise capital, buy more Bitcoin, and, in some cases, widen the gap between their market value and the underlying value of their holdings. Notably, some also used debt financing to add exposure.
As prices fell, the net asset value tied to corporate holdings also fell. At the same time, equity valuations for many digital asset treasury companies moved lower, reducing their ability to issue stock on favorable terms.
Consequently, the result has been a tighter feedback loop across the sector, in which a lower Bitcoin price reduces Bitcoin’s net asset value per share. This leads to lower equity premiums, making stock issuance less accretive.
Once those conditions are set in, the same financing mechanism that helped companies expand their Bitcoin positions begins to lose effectiveness.
That pressure has hit treasury-company equities hard. Shares that had traded as high-beta expressions of Bitcoin’s upside have declined sharply from their 2025 highs, and many have underperformed BTC itself.
For companies that bought heavily near the top of the market, such as Metaplanet, unrealized losses are beginning to mount.
Metaplanet Bitcoin Holdings Net Value (Source: Metaplanet)
Stress emerges across the sector
Meanwhile, signs of strain are beginning to appear in individual cases across the sector.
One recent example came from GD Culture, the publicly traded artificial intelligence and livestreaming firm, which approved the sale of its 7,500 Bitcoin, worth about $503 million, to fund share buybacks and support its stock price.
The sector’s aggregate numbers also reflect the change in conditions. More than 100 public companies piled roughly $100 billion into Bitcoin last year as the trade gathered pace.
Those holdings are now worth about $83.7 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data, a sharp reduction from their peak value.
Public Companies Total Bitcoin Holdings (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries)
At the same time, only two of the public companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets bought more of the asset in the past week, according to data compiled by Hodl15Capital.
The slowdown suggests that, outside a small number of committed players, the appetite to keep adding exposure has faded with the market.
Metaplanet, one of the highest-profile Bitcoin treasury companies in Japan, raised 40.8 billion yen, or about $255 million, as part of a financing that could deliver up to $531 million in total capital for Bitcoin purchases.
Yet it has not made a Bitcoin purchase this year, even as it maintains a long-term target of holding 210,000 Bitcoin. The company currently holds 35,102 Bitcoin.
Against that background, research across the sector is increasingly pointing to a more difficult environment for firms that built their strategy around equity issuance and rising Bitcoin prices.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have said the same financial engineering that amplified upside when valuations were strong is now magnifying downside as equity premiums compress.
For treasury companies whose shares had functioned as leveraged crypto trades, softer markets and weaker risk appetite across public equities have changed the economics of the model.
Crypto research firm 10x Research also argued that the first stage of the treasury-company trade has already run its course, with the easy gains from rich premiums to net asset value no longer available to most firms.
In that environment, companies are likely to face stronger scrutiny over how much stock they issued at peak valuations, how much Bitcoin they bought near cycle highs, and how much debt they took on to fund those positions.
Now, a more selective phase is beginning to take shape.
Galaxy Digital stated that companies with stronger balance sheets and more durable access to capital are better positioned to endure a long period of flat or negative premiums to net asset value.
Already, several Bitcoin treasury firms, including Strategy and Strive, are using preferred stock options to fund new BTC acquisitions, aiming to outperform the top crypto over the long term.
On the other hand, others may need to scale back purchases, rethink capital strategy, or defend shareholder support if equity markets remain unreceptive.
Bitcoin’s stall near $75,000 amid intensifying exchange inflows signals a potential shift in momentum at a critical technical juncture. Institutional investors face a compressed risk environment characterized by on-chain resistance metrics, elevated selling pressure from large holders, and dovish Federal Reserve communications that could constrain upside catalysts in the near term. Understanding these technical and macro headwinds is essential for calibrating exposure ahead of key policy announcements.
After appreciating roughly 12 percent throughout March and reaching a six-week peak near $76,000 on March 17, Bitcoin has encountered a stubborn ceiling at the $75,000 level. The asset has tested this resistance threshold three separate times on Coinbase within a 24-hour window, with each attempt failing to establish higher ground. This stalling pattern, combined with a surge in exchange deposit activity and mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, has created a critical inflection point that warrants close institutional scrutiny. The convergence of technical resistance, on-chain selling signals, and Federal Reserve guidance suggests the market may be entering a consolidation phase that could reshape near-term positioning strategies.
On-Chain Resistance and Realized Price Dynamics
The $75,000 threshold carries significance that extends well beyond its psychological round-number appeal. According to analysis from CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, this level coincides precisely with the lower boundary of the traders’ on-chain Realized Price band—a sophisticated metric that measures the average entry price of active market participants. This band has historically functioned as a resistance ceiling during bear market recoveries, constraining upside momentum at predictable levels. Current price action suggests Bitcoin is encountering this technical barrier once again, as the asset repeatedly tests the level without establishing conviction above it. For institutional traders employing on-chain analytics, this alignment between price action and realized price metrics provides a credible framework for understanding why momentum has stalled despite strong March performance.
The broader Realized Price metric, which reflects the true average break-even price for all active traders in the market, currently rests near $84,700—significantly higher than current spot prices. This elevated level demonstrated its formidable significance as resistance during both October and January price action, suggesting that even if Bitcoin successfully penetrates the immediate $75,000 hurdle, a more substantial obstacle awaits higher up. The gap between current prices and this deeper resistance level represents meaningful upside distance that would require sustained buying pressure and favorable macro conditions to overcome. Institutional investors employing technical analysis frameworks should recognize that even a successful break above $75,000 would represent only a modest step toward price discovery rather than a decisive breakout.
The persistence of these realized price barriers reflects the underlying structure of the current market. Traders who accumulated positions at higher average prices during previous rallies remain underwater or barely profitable at current levels, creating natural selling pressure as prices approach their break-even thresholds. This supply dynamic is reinforced by the behavior of large holders, whose recent repositioning activity has coincided directly with Bitcoin’s failure to establish higher ground. The technical picture thus reveals a market in relative equilibrium, where resistance levels are not arbitrary but rather anchored to genuine economic incentives for market participants to reduce exposure.
Exchange Inflows and Large Holder Repositioning
Exchange deposit activity has emerged as a particularly concerning signal regarding the sustainability of Bitcoin’s March rally. On March 16, hourly Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges reached 6,100 BTC during a single hour—marking the highest single-hour volume since February 20. The composition of these inflows amplifies concern: large deposits comprised over 60 percent of the total, the largest share observed since mid-October 2025. Historically, when large holders reposition coins from self-custody or institutional wallets to exchange addresses, selling activity typically follows within a short timeframe. The timing of this repositioning—arriving precisely as Bitcoin encountered resistance at $75,000—strengthens the bearish narrative and suggests that sophisticated market participants may be de-risking ahead of expected volatility.
The behavioral significance of these large holder movements cannot be overstated for institutional investors. Whales and significant holders typically maintain coins in cold storage for extended periods, moving them to exchanges only when they intend to execute trades. The concentration of deposits among large holders, rather than dispersed smaller participants, indicates that meaningful sell orders may be queued and awaiting execution. During previous rallies, similar patterns of large deposit activity have preceded notable corrections, creating a historical precedent that current market participants are likely to remember. This memory effect can become self-fulfilling, as institutional traders who recognize the pattern may preemptively reduce long positions or establish hedges, thereby exacerbating selling pressure.
What distinguishes the current situation from routine exchange activity is the sheer concentration and timing. The 60 percent threshold for large deposits represents a significant statistical anomaly in recent months, indicating unusual activity among sophisticated market participants. For institutional investors operating with multi-million-dollar positions, this signal carries sufficient weight to justify defensive positioning, even if the ultimate execution of these perceived sell orders remains uncertain. The prudent approach involves acknowledging the signal while maintaining flexibility should alternative interpretations of the data prove more accurate.
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Federal Reserve Guidance
The macroeconomic backdrop introduces a substantial layer of uncertainty that complicates the case for aggressive Bitcoin accumulation at current levels. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision, scheduled for announcement on Wednesday, carries consequential implications for risk asset positioning more broadly. CME futures pricing indicates a 98.9 percent probability that the Fed maintains current rates, with only a 1.1 percent chance of a hike—implying that no immediate policy shock should be anticipated. However, the forward guidance accompanying this decision may prove more significant than the rate decision itself. Markets are pricing in signals that the Fed may communicate an extended pause on rate cuts through 2026, citing persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical fallout from US-Iran tensions.
Extended rate pause guidance typically exerts downward pressure on speculative assets, as it extends the timeframe over which risk-free rates remain elevated relative to historical norms. Bitcoin and other risk assets have historically performed best in environments where monetary policy easing appears imminent or expected. Conversely, extended pause scenarios create an unfavorable backdrop for speculative positioning, as investors can earn meaningful yields from short-duration Treasury securities without assuming cryptocurrency risk. This opportunity cost becomes particularly acute for institutional investors with fiduciary obligations, as the risk-adjusted return calculation shifts against extended Bitcoin positions when safer alternatives offer competitive yields.
The geopolitical dimension adds another layer of complexity. US-Iran tensions introduce tail risk scenarios that central banks cite as justifying caution, even if economic data alone might support rate cuts. These geopolitical considerations fall outside the traditional tools of technical analysis and on-chain metrics, yet they influence policy communication and market expectations in material ways. Institutional investors should recognize that the Fed’s potential messaging on these points could suppress Bitcoin demand regardless of underlying demand from other investor cohorts.
Institutional Positioning and Medium-Term Implications
For institutional investors calibrating exposure ahead of the Fed announcement and beyond, the current configuration presents a challenging risk-reward setup. The convergence of technical resistance at $75,000, elevated selling pressure from large holders, and dovish Fed guidance creates a compressed environment where upside catalysts appear limited while downside risks warrant respect. Portfolio managers with significant Bitcoin allocations should consider whether the March rally has already priced in the most optimistic near-term scenarios, or whether conviction remains sufficient to justify holding through a potential consolidation or correction phase.
The medium-term outlook hinges substantially on Fed guidance and whether geopolitical tensions escalate or stabilize. A dovish pivot toward rate cuts in 2026 would substantially improve the technical picture and provide fresh momentum for breaking through realized price resistance. Conversely, an extended pause narrative would likely pressure speculative assets and potentially trigger the exchange deposit activity into actual selling. Institutional investors should maintain flexibility to adjust positioning in both directions as new information emerges from policy announcements and on-chain activity metrics.
The current market configuration suggests that patience may be rewarded more generously than aggression. Rather than forcing positions at resistance levels that have historically constrained upside momentum, institutional investors might prudently await clearer directional signals from either policy communications or from a convincing breakdown in exchange inflows. The technical barriers and on-chain signals are communicating caution, and respecting that message remains the institutional approach to risk management in this particular moment.
Altcoin trading volume on Binance Futures reportedly reached and crossed the $100 billion margin in a single day, its highest level since February 3, 2025.
A report from CryptoQuant highlighted this detail, and the contributor also shared the potential reason behind the spike in volume.
Source: CoinMarketCap
What caused the spike in altcoin trading?
Altcoin trading volume on Binance Futures recently reached $100.7 billion in a single day, which is the highest level it has attained since February 3, 2025. Contributor of the CryptoQuant report, Maartunn pointed out that this surge is happening after about five months of relatively lower activity, followed by Bitcoin reaching a new ATH.
Bitcoin trading volume has remained stable, but the report claims altcoins have also seen a large increase in activity, which is why altcoins now account for 71% of total trading volume on Binance Futures.
To put this in perspective, of all the futures activity happening on Binance, only 25% is coming from Bitcoin, while altcoin trading supplies the rest. From the large volume, it is also clear that Binance continues to lead the exchange roost as the preferred choice for traders.
So what triggered the spike in altcoin trading volume? CryptoQuant author Maartunn attributed it to the return of retail investors to the market, a phenomenon he says is typically observed shortly after a break of all-time highs.
Earlier this year, Binance reported that its altcoin trading volume had surged to 78% of its total volume in January, showcasing an 11% increase from May 2024. Observers think this suggests strong retail participation and potential for an altcoin bull market.
Is it really altcoin season?
Altcoin seasons usually follow a similar pattern that sees Bitcoin’s price rise rapidly, injecting positive bullish sentiment into the market.
Source: CoinMarketCap
It begins with the Bitcoin market cap increasing, driving up Bitcoin dominance to a relatively high level before Ethereum’s price follows suit and more activities occur on the network.
As a result, more Dapps get used and built, and new blood is injected into the ecosystems, causing many narratives to gain rapid popularity. The resulting upward trend leads to a surge in market performance across different sectors, and the price increase encourages investors to rotate funds and capital out of Bitcoin to invest in other upcoming opportunities.
The phenomenon is reflected in the market as altcoin season, and with CMC’s Altcoin Season Index, anyone can scale the data and get a read on the market sentiment. As things stand, the CMC’s Altcoin Season Index is at 54, so it’s not officially Altcoin Season yet.
As more investors become aware of this and the opportunity it presents, you can expect more altcoins to collectively gain prominence and witness significant price hikes across the board, often outpacing BTC’s growth.
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