Analyst Says Avoid Bitcoin At All Costs; Here’s What To Do Instead As 50% Crash Looms

• Analyst Xanrox identifies a bearish flag pattern on Bitcoin’s logarithmic daily chart, recommending shorts at $83,000, $84,000 resistance rather than longs.
• Bitcoin fell below $80,000 following U.S. PPI inflation data showing 6% year-over-year increase, currently trading near $79,600.
• Altcoins including TON, SUI, and ONDO have surged 50%, 26%, and 57% respectively over the past month amid falling Bitcoin dominance.

• $60,000 Bitcoin’s projected retest level if bearish flag pattern resolves lower
• 6% U.S. year-over-year inflation reading cited as trigger for recent Bitcoin weakness
• 50% TON altcoin gains over past month, outpacing major asset class

Xanrox, a widely-followed analyst on TradingView, has issued a contrarian call against accumulating Bitcoin at current levels, signaling that a technical breakdown could send the flagship cryptocurrency down to the $60,000 support zone within the coming weeks.

The recommendation marks a tactical divergence from the institutional narrative that dominated early 2024, when major asset managers filed for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Rather than viewing the recent recovery above $79,000 as sustainable, Xanrox argues that the bounce represents a bull trap within a larger bearish structure, warranted by weakening Bitcoin dominance and deteriorating macro conditions.

Bearish Flag Pattern Signals 25% Decline to $60,000 Support

On the logarithmic daily chart, Bitcoin has formed what Xanrox identifies as a bearish flag pattern, a technical structure that typically resolves in the direction of the preceding downtrend. The pattern consists of a steep sell-off followed by a tightening consolidation range, which often acts as a continuation signal rather than a reversal.

Xanrox emphasizes that the current price sits within a channel, with a substantial selling wall positioned above the current level, making a rally toward $83,000, $84,000 technically possible before the anticipated reversal.

The analyst’s core thesis hinges on the notion that opening a short position near the $83,000, $84,000 resistance zone offers a superior risk-reward profile to initiating long positions at current prices. If the flag pattern resolves lower, Bitcoin would need to break through the main channel’s support trendline at approximately $60,000, representing a 25% move from the time of analysis.

This projection aligns with broader technical frameworks that emphasize the importance of multi-month support levels and the difficulty of sustaining rallies when macro headwinds intensify.

The recent breakdown below $80,000 offers empirical support for the bearish thesis, with U.S. inflation data serving as the trigger.

U.S. Inflation Data Breaches $80,000 Support Level

Bitcoin fell sharply following the release of U.S. Producer Price Index data showing inflation rose 6% year-over-year in April, a reading that contradicts the Federal Reserve’s narrative of disinflation and signals persistent price pressures in the economy.

The inflation surprise immediately pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin declining below the $80,000 level that had served as psychological support during the recent rally. At the time of Xanrox’s analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $79,600, down from intraday highs, and facing renewed selling pressure as market participants reassessed the probability and timing of interest rate cuts.

For institutional investors, the inflation reading carries particular weight because it reduces the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts in the second half of 2024. Lower rate cuts mean that cash and fixed income assets become more competitive relative to non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, which depend on risk appetite and liquidity expansion to sustain appreciation.

The macro backdrop of sticky inflation also complicates the narrative that Bitcoin serves as an inflation hedge, since nominal price gains in cryptocurrencies can be offset by real purchasing power losses if central banks maintain elevated real rates.

Xanrox’s rejection of the bull case at $80,000, $84,000 appears to reflect this recalibration. Rather than treating the inflation surprise as a temporary setback within a longer uptrend, the analyst views it as a catalyst for testing much lower support levels.

Bitcoin dominance, the percentage of total cryptocurrency market capitalization held by Bitcoin, has declined to levels not seen since 2021, a shift that Xanrox interprets as a structural signal that institutional flows are rotating away from the leading cryptocurrency.

Falling Bitcoin Dominance Points to Altcoin Season Rotation

Bitcoin dominance, a widely-tracked metric among institutional traders, has declined to levels that historically coincide with periods of sustained altcoin outperformance.

Xanrox cites this deterioration as a primary reason to avoid Bitcoin and instead position for what he describes as an “altcoin season,” a phase in which smaller, more volatile cryptocurrencies outpace Bitcoin on a percentage-gain basis.

The analyst specifically recommends major altcoins including Cardano (ADA), TRON (TRX), Chainlink (LINK), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Ripple (XRP), and Ethereum (ETH).

Xanrox characterizes these major altcoins as “bank coins” because they are widely held and traded by institutional capital, including traditional financial firms and regulated exchanges.

For institutional investors seeking outsized returns, the analyst advocates moving further down the market-cap curve into lower-capitalization tokens, which he argues offer materially greater upside potential than the mega-cap altcoins that have already benefited from years of adoption.

Some of these lower-cap assets have already demonstrated significant strength: TON, the native token of the Toncoin blockchain, has surged nearly 50% over the past month as the network reduced transaction fees by 600% and emerged as one of the highest-yielding layer-1 networks in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Market participants should avoid Bitcoin as its dominance is falling and that it has already pumped from its February lows of around $60,000.

Xanrox, crypto analyst

SUI and ONDO have recorded gains of 26% and 57%, respectively, over the same period, driven by positive developments within their respective ecosystems and increased participation by institutions seeking exposure to emerging blockchain verticals.

The outperformance of these altcoins against Bitcoin creates a tactical argument for rebalancing toward assets where price discovery is still active and where significant capital has not yet accumulated.

For asset managers running performance-sensitive strategies, the divergence between Bitcoin’s stagnation and altcoin momentum represents a material opportunity cost of overweighting the flagship cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s February Lows Signal Potential Range Expansion

Xanrox notes that Bitcoin has already rallied approximately 33% from its February lows near $60,000 to current levels around $79,600, a move that the analyst characterizes as exhausted. From an institutional portfolio perspective, this observation matters because it suggests that much of the near-term upside has already been realized, while the downside remains substantial.

If Bitcoin retraces to $60,000 as Xanrox forecasts, the move would erase gains accumulated over several months and force investors to reconsider their positioning ahead of the U.S. presidential election and potential shifts in regulatory policy toward cryptocurrencies.

The analyst’s recommendation to rotate capital into lower-cap altcoins reflects a judgment that marginal Bitcoin buyers have largely been exhausted, while fresh capital has not yet fully rotated into the broader altcoin space. This creates a window in which early movers into these assets can accumulate before the next wave of institutional inflows arrives. However, the call also carries elevated execution risk: lower-cap altcoins exhibit substantially higher volatility and lower liquidity than

Original reporting: newsbtc.com