Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin Records Worst June in Four Years – Is a Cyclical Bottom in Play?

Bitcoin, ETF, Institutional Bitcoin, Bitfinex, BTC, Cycle Bottom, ETF Outflows, June Performance, Spot Demand

On-chain data has confirmed that June was a painful month for bitcoin (BTC), but beyond the price weakness, both spot demand and institutional flows faltered. Due to last month’s performance, there is speculation that the market may be nearing a cyclical bottom, but this remains unconfirmed.

In the meantime, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed in this week’s Bitfinex Alpha that historical data suggests that July could be better for BTC. However, a seasonality dynamic will not be able to sustain a recovery for BTC this month – the asset needs sustained spot and institutional demand.

Worst June in 4 Years

BTC fell to a fresh cycle low of $57,800 last month, marking the worst June since 2022 and the second-worst since 2013. Analysts say this dump was intensified by waning STRC demand and six consecutive weeks of outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the longest since their launch. The decline to $58,000 marked a 54.15% plunge from current cycle highs, and BTC ended June down 20.48%.

“June’s downside was likely deepened by the failure of both principal demand engines: waning STRC demand and ETF outflows that represented the worst streak on record. The month closed down 20.48 percent from its monthly open, far below the seasonal median of negative 1.5 percent. That sharp deviation left the market technically oversold heading into July,” analysts explained.

With BTC reclaiming the $60,000 level on July 1, market experts believe the plunge may have been a failed breakdown rather than a sustained leg lower. Additionally, the rebound indicated that spot demand had begun to return at marginal lows. Although the current setup supports a positive seasonality for July, only the return of stronger demand, particularly through renewed ETF inflows, will sustain recovery.

Will July Be Better?

In prior bear markets, June and November have been the weakest months, so July has historically been firmer. This month posted double-digit gains in 2018 and 2022 bear cycles. However, analysts believe it is too early to tell if the cycle lows are in. The stage for broader sustainable recovery is only set if the demand engines are repaired.

“Seasonality supports the current setup but will not drive it,” analysts stated.

Interestingly, the ETF market has witnessed a reprieve from the bearish regime – $223.5 million on July 2. However, analysts insist that one session of inflows is insufficient to reverse the damage from six weeks of outflows.

The post Bitcoin Records Worst June in Four Years – Is a Cyclical Bottom in Play? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

How To Time The Dogecoin Bottom And When The Price Will Reach $2

Bitcoin, Memecoins Cryptollica, Cycle Bottom, Dogecoin, Price Prediction, RSI, Technical Analysis

Dogecoin’s next major move may depend less on hype and more on exhaustion. A new technical analysis from crypto analyst Cryptollica proposes that the leading meme coin is now trading at another cycle-bottom zone, and the weekly chart is showing the same kind of RSI washout and long compression that previously appeared before notable Dogecoin rallies.

Dogecoin’s Fourth Cycle Bottom Comes Into View

Dogecoin has spent the better part of the past year being written off. Sentiment has collapsed, price has compressed, and the crowd that once celebrated the meme coin has gone silent. However, a structure that has correctly identified every major Dogecoin bottom since 2015 is saying this is precisely the moment worth watching.

This structure analysis in question is built around the idea that Dogecoin’s chart is not only a price chart but also a record of market cycle psychology. According to analyst Cryptollica, the 2015 bottom was a period of disbelief, the 2020 bottom was boredom, and the 2022 bottom was anger. This makes the current setup the fourth cycle bottom, where sentiment appears exhausted while the bullish structure is resetting.

The weekly chart shared by the analyst shows Dogecoin moving along a long-term rising support structure, with each major low forming during a period when the weekly RSI dropped into or near oversold territory. Interestingly, the latest RSI reading shown on the chart shows the Dogecoin price bouncing from that RSI in early 2026 and slowly trending upwards.

Where The Structure Says The Bottom Is

Dogecoin is currently looking like it is registering a bottom around $0.10. However, the most important point in this analysis is that timing the Dogecoin bottom is not confirmed by price alone. Timing the Dogecoin bottom comes from a combination of three things: an oversold weekly RSI, long compression, and price holding around the cycle support zone.

The first signal is already visible in the chart. Dogecoin’s weekly RSI has fallen into the same region as previous cycle lows. The second signal is compression. Dogecoin has spent months grinding through a wide base around $0.10 instead of moving in a clean upward trend. That may look weak on the surface, but in cycle analysis, extended compression often means sellers are losing control gradually.

The third signal is confirmation. In order for the bottom argument to become stronger, Dogecoin would need to hold the current support region at $0.10 and begin forming higher lows on the weekly chart. A move back above the nearest major resistance zones at $0.15 and $0.2 would add more weight to the claim that the cycle bottom has been made.

That means $0.10 is now one of the most important areas for the Dogecoin price. If the fourth cycle bottom is confirmed, then the question changes from where Dogecoin is now to how it has rallied from similar structural positions. Cryptollica’s analysis points to a top target above $2. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.104, back to retesting $0.10 from an intraday high of $0.1126.

Dogecoin