Bitcoin’s US demand signal is still struggling to recover, with the Coinbase Premium Index reportedly sitting in negative territory for eight straight weeks. The run began on May 6, 2026, and now marks the longest continuous negative stretch for the metric in more than a year.
TL;DR
The Coinbase Premium Index has reportedly been negative since May 6.
That marks an eight-week weak stretch for the US Bitcoin demand signal.
The index compares Bitcoin pricing on Coinbase Pro with Binance.
A negative reading suggests weaker relative buying pressure from Coinbase-linked traders, not a collapse in global volume.
The Coinbase Premium Index is one of those market indicators that can sound more complicated than it really is. In simple terms, it tracks the gap between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase Pro and the price on Binance. Because Coinbase is closely associated with US institutions and retail users, the premium is often used as a rough proxy for US spot demand.
What a negative premium actually means
When Bitcoin trades at a premium on Coinbase, traders often interpret that as a sign that US buyers are paying slightly more than global buyers. When the premium turns negative, it suggests that Coinbase-linked demand is weaker than demand on other major venues.
That does not mean nobody in the US is buying Bitcoin. It also does not mean global trading volume has vanished. The metric is relative. It says more about where demand is stronger or weaker than it does about absolute market size.
Still, an eight-week negative run is difficult to ignore. Short dips can be noise. A two-month stretch points to a more persistent imbalance in the market.
Why this matters after a difficult June
The timing is important because Bitcoin has already been dealing with pressure from other parts of the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy June outflows, price action weakened, and traders became more defensive around risk assets. A negative Coinbase premium adds another signal that the US side of the market has not been leading the recovery.
For bulls, the ideal setup would be a return to positive ETF flows and a Coinbase premium that moves back above zero. That would suggest US buyers are stepping back in rather than leaving the rebound to offshore or global venues. Until that happens, rallies may continue to look vulnerable to fading.
Not bearish on its own, but hard to ignore
No single metric should be treated as a full market thesis. The Coinbase Premium Index can move quickly, and it is best read alongside ETF flows, exchange reserves, derivatives positioning, and spot volume. But it remains useful because it captures a part of the Bitcoin market that traders care about deeply: whether US demand is leading or lagging.
Right now, the signal is lagging. That does not guarantee further downside, but it does tell traders that Bitcoin’s next leg higher likely needs stronger participation from Coinbase-linked buyers. Without that, the market may continue to feel like it is recovering on thinner ground.
This report is based on information from CryptoQuant.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
The corporate Bitcoin treasury boom is losing oxygen: a $100 billion public-company bet has shrunk, buying has collapsed outside Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and the financing model that drove the trade is starting to fail.
Data from CryptoQuant show that the Michael Saylor-led company bought about 45,000 Bitcoin over the last 30 days, the largest 30-day haul since April 2025.
Over the same period, all other Bitcoin treasury companies combined purchased about 1,000 Bitcoin, down about 99% from the 69,000 BTC they bought at the peak of the trade in August 2025.
CryptoQuant noted that the gap has widened to the point that Strategy now accounts for about 98% of all Bitcoin bought by treasury firms over the past month.
Last October, the balance looked very different, with companies outside Strategy responsible for about 95% of net purchases during a period when corporate buying was spreading across a wider list of names.
That shift has left Strategy as the dominant source of incremental treasury demand in a sector that, only months ago, was being promoted as a broader corporate movement tied to Bitcoin’s rally and to publicly listed companies’ ability to use their stocks as financing tools.
Participation shrinks beyond Strategy
The slowdown outside Strategy is showing up not only in the size of purchases but also in the number of companies still participating.
Treasury companies other than Strategy made 13 Bitcoin purchases in the last 30 days, down 76% from the 54 recorded in August 2025, when corporate activity was at its peak. Strategy, by contrast, has maintained a steadier pace, posting about 4 to 5 purchases each 30-day period.
The numbers point to a market where both the depth and breadth of demand have weakened. Fewer companies are buying, and those that remain active are deploying less capital than they did during the peak of the trade.
That change has altered the makeup of the sector. While Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have grown by about 90,000 Bitcoin so far this year, other treasury companies together have added a net 4,000 Bitcoin over the same period.
As a result, their share of total corporate treasury holdings has slipped from 26% in November 2025 to 24% now, while Strategy’s share has continued to climb.
Strategy now holds about 76% of all Bitcoin owned by treasury companies. The next two largest holders, XXI and Metaplanet, account for 4.3% and 3.5%, respectively.
For a sector that expanded quickly as rising Bitcoin prices pulled in new entrants, the concentration is becoming harder to ignore.
The corporate treasury model gained momentum last year as Bitcoin rose and public-market investors rewarded listed companies that offered leveraged exposure to the asset.
As Bitcoin climbed, many companies were able to issue shares at premiums to the value of the BTC already on their balance sheets.
That gave them a way to raise capital, buy more Bitcoin, and, in some cases, widen the gap between their market value and the underlying value of their holdings. Notably, some also used debt financing to add exposure.
As prices fell, the net asset value tied to corporate holdings also fell. At the same time, equity valuations for many digital asset treasury companies moved lower, reducing their ability to issue stock on favorable terms.
Consequently, the result has been a tighter feedback loop across the sector, in which a lower Bitcoin price reduces Bitcoin’s net asset value per share. This leads to lower equity premiums, making stock issuance less accretive.
Once those conditions are set in, the same financing mechanism that helped companies expand their Bitcoin positions begins to lose effectiveness.
That pressure has hit treasury-company equities hard. Shares that had traded as high-beta expressions of Bitcoin’s upside have declined sharply from their 2025 highs, and many have underperformed BTC itself.
For companies that bought heavily near the top of the market, such as Metaplanet, unrealized losses are beginning to mount.
Metaplanet Bitcoin Holdings Net Value (Source: Metaplanet)
Stress emerges across the sector
Meanwhile, signs of strain are beginning to appear in individual cases across the sector.
One recent example came from GD Culture, the publicly traded artificial intelligence and livestreaming firm, which approved the sale of its 7,500 Bitcoin, worth about $503 million, to fund share buybacks and support its stock price.
The sector’s aggregate numbers also reflect the change in conditions. More than 100 public companies piled roughly $100 billion into Bitcoin last year as the trade gathered pace.
Those holdings are now worth about $83.7 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data, a sharp reduction from their peak value.
Public Companies Total Bitcoin Holdings (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries)
At the same time, only two of the public companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets bought more of the asset in the past week, according to data compiled by Hodl15Capital.
The slowdown suggests that, outside a small number of committed players, the appetite to keep adding exposure has faded with the market.
Metaplanet, one of the highest-profile Bitcoin treasury companies in Japan, raised 40.8 billion yen, or about $255 million, as part of a financing that could deliver up to $531 million in total capital for Bitcoin purchases.
Yet it has not made a Bitcoin purchase this year, even as it maintains a long-term target of holding 210,000 Bitcoin. The company currently holds 35,102 Bitcoin.
Against that background, research across the sector is increasingly pointing to a more difficult environment for firms that built their strategy around equity issuance and rising Bitcoin prices.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have said the same financial engineering that amplified upside when valuations were strong is now magnifying downside as equity premiums compress.
For treasury companies whose shares had functioned as leveraged crypto trades, softer markets and weaker risk appetite across public equities have changed the economics of the model.
Crypto research firm 10x Research also argued that the first stage of the treasury-company trade has already run its course, with the easy gains from rich premiums to net asset value no longer available to most firms.
In that environment, companies are likely to face stronger scrutiny over how much stock they issued at peak valuations, how much Bitcoin they bought near cycle highs, and how much debt they took on to fund those positions.
Now, a more selective phase is beginning to take shape.
Galaxy Digital stated that companies with stronger balance sheets and more durable access to capital are better positioned to endure a long period of flat or negative premiums to net asset value.
Already, several Bitcoin treasury firms, including Strategy and Strive, are using preferred stock options to fund new BTC acquisitions, aiming to outperform the top crypto over the long term.
On the other hand, others may need to scale back purchases, rethink capital strategy, or defend shareholder support if equity markets remain unreceptive.
