Solana Eyes $117 Breakout — If Bulls Can Crush This Key Resistance

• SOL consolidated between $75 and $100 for months after falling from $150 in Q1 2026
• Analyst projects 30% upside to $117 if price breaks and holds above $98 resistance on daily close
• Near-term intermediate target sits at $107 before potential continuation toward secondary $117 level

• $98 Key resistance level, compared to $78 consolidation floor
• 30% Projected upside move if resistance breaks and sustains on daily timeframe
• $89.33 SOL spot price at writing, down 3% in prior 24 hours

Solana has spent the past several months locked within a tightly defined consolidation band, unable to decisively reclaim the momentum that carried it near $150 in the opening quarter of 2026. The token currently trades around $89.33, down 3% over the previous day, and sits well within its $75-to-$100 trading corridor.

The upper boundary of this range, $98, has proven to be an immovable ceiling despite what should have been a catalyst: the U.S. Senate banking committee’s approval of the CLARITY Act, a legislative framework widely viewed by institutional investors as net-positive for crypto asset classification and custody clarity.

That rejection reveals a critical tension between regulatory optimism and technical reality, forcing traders and portfolio managers to reckon with whether legislative progress alone can overcome embedded bearish technical structures.

Solana Rejected at $98 Ceiling Even as CLARITY Act Fueled Market-Wide Rally

The CLARITY Act’s advancement through the Senate banking committee should have functioned as a meaningful bullish impulse for mid-cap and large-cap crypto assets. The legislation addresses longstanding institutional pain points around asset classification, custody standards, and regulatory clarity, issues that have suppressed institutional adoption and on-chain settlement activity for years.

Solana, which benefits disproportionately from institutional infrastructure expansion, briefly caught upside momentum on the news. However, the rally ran directly into the $98 resistance level and stalled, unable to generate the closing price conviction needed to break through on the daily timeframe.

This rejection is instructive for institutional portfolio managers because it signals that technical supply/demand structures can override fundamental or sentiment-driven catalysts in the short term. The token bounced back from this ceiling to find support near $88, a pivot point that has held multiple times over the consolidation period.

According to market analyst Ali Martinez, this $88-to-$98 range has tightened into what he describes as a “well-defined horizontal channel,” the kind of technical structure that often precedes directional breakouts rather than continued choppy trading.

The persistence of the $98 ceiling despite legislative tailwinds also underscores how risk-sensitive current market conditions remain.

Throughout 2026, institutional traders have repeatedly encountered situations where crypto assets fail to hold gains tied to favorable news flow, suggesting that macro conditions, interest rate expectations, equity volatility, or broader risk-on sentiment, remain the binding constraint on upside progression for altcoins.

Martinez Maps Path to $117 If Daily Close Above $98 Holds

Ali Martinez’s technical case for a sustained Solana rally rests on a straightforward but specific trigger: a daily close above $98. Once that threshold is breached and maintained across a full trading day, Martinez projects an immediate next target at $107, representing roughly a 9% move from the resistance level itself.

That intermediate target functions as a liquidity collection zone, a level where previous buyers who bought near $100-$105 would likely take profits, and where new buyers might enter on a retest.

The more aggressive secondary target sits at $117, a level that represents an approximately 30% gain from the current $89.33 price. Martinez emphasizes that this secondary target becomes feasible only if buying pressure sustains through the $107 intermediate level and Solana generates fresh momentum into what would be new 2026 highs relative to the Q1 peak near $150.

At $117, Solana would have broken decisively above all major resistance formed during the consolidation, triggering the kind of technical follow-through that often attracts algorithmic buying and FOMO-driven retail inflows in crypto markets.

For institutional traders, the $107-to-$117 price structure matters because it maps a plausible risk-reward scenario on a daily timeframe.

If an investor enters a long position near $98 with a stop-loss at $94 (representing about 4% downside risk), the upside to $117 offers roughly 7-to-1 reward-to-risk odds, a ratio institutional traders regard as minimum viable for taking technical positions in volatile assets.

This math holds only if the breakout generates closing conviction and doesn’t immediately reverse, a condition Martinez’s analysis implicitly assumes will hold once Solana closes above $98.

Downside Scenario Maps Pullback to $78 if $98 Resists Again

Martinez’s alternative scenario carries equal weight in his analysis: if the $98 resistance refuses to break, or if Solana closes above $98 only to reverse back below it on subsequent days, the token could experience a sharp pullback. The first level of support sits at $88, the pivot point that has held throughout the consolidation period.

A break below $88 would target the channel floor at $78, representing a 12% decline from current levels.

This downside scenario becomes more likely if the broader market deteriorates or if the CLARITY Act’s legislative progress stalls further up the congressional pipeline. While the Senate banking committee approval represents genuine progress, the bill must still pass a full Senate vote and potentially face House amendments before becoming law.

Any delays or setbacks in that process could reverse the current bullish sentiment and trigger a reassessment of risk among traders holding altcoin positions into the resistance level.

From an institutional risk management perspective, the $88-to-$78 downside pathway is not a tail scenario, it is a credible outcome if technical resistance holds for a third or fourth consecutive attempt.

Regulatory Tailwind and Macro Conditions Must Align for Breakout to Sustain

Martinez’s bullish case implicitly depends on two conditions holding simultaneously: technical momentum through $98 and sustained improvement in broader market conditions.

He notes explicitly that “the general market condition would need to improve if the altcoin is to enjoy sustained upside, especially given how sensitive financial markets have been to broader market dynamics in 2026.” This caveat is not boilerplate hedging, it reflects the reality that altcoins like Solana trade with elevated beta to equity markets, Treasury yield movements, and macro risk sentiment.

The CLARITY Act approval does provide a structural tailwind, but its impact depends on narrative persistence. If news flow shifts to banking stress, rate-hike expectations, or geopolitical risk, the pro-crypto legislative progress will be subordinated to macro risk-off dynamics.

Institutional traders have learned this lesson repeatedly in 2026: favorable crypto-specific catalysts alone cannot overcome deteriorating macro conditions or reduced risk appetite across financial markets.

This dynamic creates an asymmetry in how institutional investors should weigh Martinez’s upside versus downside scenarios. The upside case ($98-to-$117 rally) requires both technical breakout and macro alignment. The downside case ($88-to-$78 pullback) requires only that either technical resistance holds or macro conditions deteriorate, a lower bar to clear.

Portfolio managers using this analysis should treat the upside target as contingent on confirmation of sustained macro risk-on, not as a default expectation tied to technical structure alone.

The concrete next step for investors is to monitor whether Solana closes above $98 on the daily timeframe in the coming trading sessions, and if it does, whether that close is accompanied by volume expansion and macro risk-on conditions (

Original reporting: newsbtc.com