Ripple’s (XRP) $1 Breakdown Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better

• XRP has declined over 70% since its July 2025 cycle peak, breaking below the $1 psychological support level in August.
• Jane Street increased XRP ETF holdings to 1.2 million Bitwise shares by Q2 end, a 58-fold jump from 20,605 shares in Q1.
• Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Wolverine Asset Management all disclosed new or expanded XRP ETF positions despite current price weakness.

• 70% XRP decline since July 2025 cycle peak versus current price levels
• 1.2M Bitwise XRP ETF shares held by Jane Street at Q2 end, versus Q1 quarter
• $0.65, $0.85 Projected macro accumulation zone if selling pressure intensifies further

XRP’s breach of the $1 support level in August marks a critical technical and psychological turning point for the digital asset, arriving after a steep 70% drawdown from its July 2025 peak.

Market analysts now warn that the token may have significant room to fall before establishing a durable floor, with some projecting another 20% to 40% decline into a macro accumulation zone between $0.65 and $0.85.

Yet the narrative grows more complex as major institutional investors, firms that typically deploy capital during periods of maximum pessimism, have been steadily building XRP positions through exchange-traded fund vehicles. This divergence between technical weakness and institutional accumulation has created the kind of asymmetric setup that often precedes significant reversals in crypto markets.

Jane Street Multiplies XRP ETF Position by 58 Times in Single Quarter

Jane Street Group emerged as the most aggressive institutional buyer, revealing holdings of more than 1.2 million shares of the Bitwise XRP ETF as of the second quarter’s close, compared with just 20,605 shares reported at the end of the first quarter. The 58-fold increase in just three months signals a methodical accumulation strategy executed during a period of sustained downward price pressure.

Beyond the Bitwise product, the trading firm also established positions in XRP ETFs managed by Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and 21Shares, suggesting a deliberate diversification across multiple fund structures rather than a single tactical bet.

Jane Street’s scale matters because the firm manages tens of billions of dollars in assets and typically enters positions on fundamental rather than momentum-driven reasoning. The timing of these purchases, occurring as XRP fell from higher levels toward and below $1, indicates confidence in the asset’s long-term value proposition independent of near-term price action.

For institutional investors evaluating whether current weakness represents opportunity or warning, the identity and track record of the buyer carries weight equal to or greater than the magnitude of the position itself.

Wall Street Institutions Enter XRP ETFs Despite 70% Drawdown

Beyond Jane Street, a broader set of major financial institutions disclosed XRP ETF holdings in recent regulatory filings. Morgan Stanley reported positions across three separate fund providers, including Franklin Templeton, REX-Osprey, and Bitwise products, diversifying its exposure much as Jane Street had done.

Bank of America disclosed 13,260 shares of the Volatility Shares XRP ETF, valued at approximately $76,000, signaling participation despite its smaller absolute size. Wolverine Asset Management held nearly 200,000 shares of the Bitwise XRP ETF, while Gallacher Capital Management maintained 86,744 shares of the Capital XRP ETF.

The breadth of institutional participation across asset managers, trading firms, and traditional banks marks a departure from prior cycles, when XRP accumulated primarily through retail channels and crypto-native funds.

The presence of firms such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, institutions that face reputational risk from poor allocations, indicates an elevated institutional conviction level in XRP’s longer-term thesis. These positions were filed during the same period that retail sentiment turned decidedly negative, creating a classic contrarian setup.

Smaller financial institutions also reported exposure. National Bank of Canada and Main Street Group each disclosed holdings, though at smaller scale, broadening the institutional footprint beyond the megacap trading and asset management firms.

Technical Stabilization on 4-Hour Charts Offers First Signal of Base Formation

While longer-term technical breakdowns continue, the 4-hour chart has begun showing early stabilization signals that may presage a reversal. The 4-hour relative strength index (RSI) has stabilized near 42, having moved slightly above its signal line at 41.8, and price action has shifted from extended downward candles to increasingly tight and flat trading ranges.

This compression, while not bullish in isolation, represents the kind of consolidation pattern that often precedes directional breaks after sustained declines.

Market analyst Diana outlined a bifurcated scenario based on price reaction at key technical levels. To the upside, bulls would need to drive XRP through $1.015, $1.05, and crucially $1.081, with breaks above that level bringing $1.145 and $1.20 back into focus. To the downside, a decisive break below $1 with follow-through selling would target $0.906 and $0.861.

The precision of these levels reflects the technical structure established over prior months of trading.

If this is ACCUMULATION, XRP doesn’t need to explode immediately. It needs to keep absorbing the selling around $1 until buyers finally force a breakout.

Diana, market analyst

This framing highlights the core tension in XRP’s current setup: whether near-term price weakness reflects capitulation that precedes recovery, or whether the asset will test lower levels before institutional accumulation becomes visibly profitable. For institutional investors operating with multi-quarter or multi-year time horizons, the distinction is material.

Macro Accumulation Zone Could Extend to $0.65 If Selling Accelerates

Analyst Crypto Patel’s models suggest that if selling pressure intensifies materially, a viable macro accumulation zone would stretch between $0.65 and $0.85, implying potential further downside of 20% to 40% from current levels near $1.

This projection does not represent a forecast of certain decline but rather an identified zone where the risk-reward profile may shift from uncertain to clearly favorable for long-duration investors. The range corresponds to technical support levels and historically relevant valuation bands for XRP during prior market cycles.

The critical distinction in Patel’s framing is that weakness to such levels would not necessarily indicate fundamental deterioration but rather the kind of panic liquidation that has historically preceded major asset recoveries in crypto markets.

Institutional investors with dry powder or unutilized allocation capacity are typically most active during periods when markets reach maximum pessimism, which XRP may or may not have reached at current levels.

Institutional Positioning Sets Stage for Competing Narratives in Coming Weeks

The next critical period for XRP will determine whether institutional accumulation translates into visible price recovery or merely repositions losses lower.

Should XRP stabilize in the $0.90 to $1.05 range without breaking decisively lower, the institutional positions already established by Jane Street, Morgan Stanley, and others will begin accruing visible gains, potentially triggering follow-on buying from other large allocators monitoring performance.

Conversely, if selling accelerates through $1 toward the $0.85-$0.65 zone, institutional accumulation may be reframed as premature or miscalibrated, though it would also likely signal maximum capitulation conditions.

The immediate focus for institutional investors is whether XRP holds above $0.906 on any test of the downside support level, or whether follow-through selling carries the asset toward the $0.65-$0.85 accum

Original reporting: cryptopotato.com