Renko Mari-Ashi

A pseudonymous crypto analyst using the Renko Mari-Ashi charting method, a Japanese price-action tool that filters market noise, has identified a confirmed Double Bottom formation for Bitcoin in the $60,000 to $65,000 range, suggesting the bear market may have ended and a major bull run could follow. For institutional investors tracking macro trend reversals, this technical signal aligns with historical precedent: a similar Double Bottom in September 2024 preceded Bitcoin’s rise past $100,000, and the subsequent pattern led to an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.

• Bitcoin has formed a second Double Bottom on Renko Mari-Ashi charts, centered at $60,000 to $65,000, after falling from October 2025 highs above $126,000.
• The first price floor formed in February 2026 near $60,000; the second emerged near $65,000 following a bullish fakeout before reversal confirmation.
• Historical precedent suggests a major bull run may follow, as a similar Double Bottom pattern in September 2024 preceded Bitcoin’s surge above $100,000 and eventual peak at $126,000.

• $126,000 Bitcoin all-time high reached in October 2025 before current bear market decline began
• $60,000, $65,000 Price range where Renko Mari-Ashi analysis places current Double Bottom formation
• February 2026 Date of first confirmed Double Bottom floor near $60,000 support level

Bitcoin has completed a second major Double Bottom formation on the Renko Mari-Ashi chart, a rare Japanese price-action analysis tool that filters out market noise by plotting price movement rather than time intervals.

Analyst Geometric, posting on X on April 28, highlighted the pattern as a potential signal that Bitcoin’s bear market may be concluding and that a bullish breakout phase is imminent.

The Double Bottom, confirmed at support levels between $60,000 and $65,000, echoes a similar pattern that emerged in September 2024, the months before Bitcoin surged past its then-record $100,000 level and eventually reached an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.

Renko Mari-Ashi Method Filters Noise By Measuring Price Bricks, Not Time Intervals

The Renko Mari-Ashi charting technique differs fundamentally from traditional candlestick analysis by focusing exclusively on price movement and ignoring temporal intervals. Instead of plotting a new candle at fixed time periods, minutes, hours, or days, the Renko system generates “bricks” or blocks only when price moves by a predetermined amount, regardless of how long that move takes.

This approach removes the noise and false signals that intraday volatility often introduces into conventional price charts, making major trend reversals and support-resistance formations more visible to traders and analysts.

Geometric’s application of this method to Bitcoin’s multi-year price history reveals a consistent pattern: major bull runs and bear markets appear as recognizable geometric formations, with Double Bottom and Double Top patterns marking critical inflection points.

By tracking Bitcoin from 2018 to the present, Geometric identified that BTC formed a Double Top prior to its September 2024 Double Bottom, then rallied sharply once that floor was confirmed. The same sequence, Double Top followed by Double Bottom, has now repeated, with the top occurring at the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 and the bottom forming at the $60,000 to $65,000 band.

The Renko method’s strength lies in its ability to isolate structural price moves from tactical noise, making it particularly useful for identifying macro trend reversals that institutional investors monitor when reassessing portfolio exposure to Bitcoin and broader digital-asset allocations.

Two-Stage Bottom Confirmed: February 2026 Low Near $60,000, May Fakeout Near $65,000

According to Geometric’s analysis, Bitcoin’s current Double Bottom took shape across two distinct legs. The first floor formed in February 2026, when BTC crashed to approximately $60,000. Following that initial support test, Bitcoin rallied but encountered a bullish fakeout, a false breakout that trapped retail longs before reversing lower, which created a second price floor near $65,000.

This two-stage formation is the hallmark of a Double Bottom pattern and, in the Renko framework, signals exhaustion of selling pressure and potential reversal.

The timing of these levels is significant for institutional traders assessing downside risk. If Bitcoin had broken below $60,000 decisively, it would have invalidated the Double Bottom signal and suggested further downside to previous support zones. Instead, the second test near $65,000 held and was followed by a recovery, confirming the pattern.

Geometric notes that price action has now returned to the “green” and entered what he describes as a bullish breakout zone, implying that Bitcoin has transitioned from a defensive bear-market mode into an offensive bull-market structure.

The confirmation of this two-stage bottom is critical because it suggests that the supply-demand imbalance that drove the $126,000 peak and subsequent 40% crash has resolved, and buyers are now positioned to drive the next leg higher.

September 2024 Double Bottom Preceded $100,000 Surge, Followed By October 2025 All-Time High

The credibility of Geometric’s current Double Bottom thesis rests partly on the precedent set by the September 2024 pattern. At that time, Bitcoin formed a similar Double Bottom and subsequently rallied decisively above $100,000 for the first time in its history.

That breakout marked the beginning of a sustained bull phase that continued for several months and culminated in the October 2025 all-time high above $126,000, a move of roughly 26% from the $100,000 level and a multi-year record.

The sequence matters because it demonstrates that Renko Mari-Ashi Double Bottom formations have preceded significant, multi-month rallies in Bitcoin’s recent price history. Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin entered a bear market decline, with the cryptocurrency falling more than 50% from its high, a correction typical of post-bubble consolidation periods.

However, the fact that BTC found support at $60,000 to $65,000 and formed a Double Bottom mirroring the 2024 pattern suggests institutional and structural demand has emerged to catch the decline.

Institutional investors should note that if the 2024 precedent holds, a breakout from the current Double Bottom could target price levels significantly higher than the preceding all-time high.

Historical bear-market recoveries in Bitcoin typically overshoot previous resistance zones by 20% to 50% once a confirmed reversal pattern forms, implying potential targets in the $150,000 to $190,000 range if Geometric’s thesis proves correct.

Bullish Breakout Zone Signals Potential Major Rally, Mirroring 2024 Price Action Trajectory

Geometric explicitly identifies Bitcoin as now entering a bullish breakout zone, the critical phase between confirmed support and the resumption of uptrend structure. In the Renko Mari-Ashi framework, this zone represents the area where buyers are expected to overcome prior resistance and establish higher highs and higher lows.

For institutional traders, breakout zones carry elevated risk-reward dynamics: confirmation of the pattern through a breakout generates strong buy signals and attracts momentum capital, while invalidation through a breakdown would negate the bearish thesis and require reassessment.

If price action follows the 2024 precedent, the immediate phase will involve Bitcoin breaking above key resistance levels established during the bear market decline. Those resistance zones typically occur at round numbers or swing highs, common areas where sellers placed stop-losses during the prior bull run.

Once Bitcoin clears those levels with volume and closes decisively above them on the Renko chart, the probability of a sustained rally increases substantially.

For portfolio managers and hedge funds, the breakout confirmation phase is the critical decision point: waiting for price to reclaim previous resistance before increasing exposure to Bitcoin positions reduces false-signal risk while still capturing the early stages of a potential major bull run.