Payward’s adjusted EBITDA plunges 67 percent as Kraken loses trading volume
Kraken’s parent company Payward is feeling pressure from two sides simultaneously: as a trading platform losing volume in a down market, and as a lender to crypto firms whose collateral is deteriorating. This dual squeeze tests the viability of Payward’s strategy to diversify beyond fees before it seeks to go public.
- Payward’s adjusted EBITDA fell 67 percent to $60 million in Q3 2026, while trading volume dropped 30 percent to $353 billion.
- Kraken extended a $60 million portion of a $165 million USDT loan to Nakamoto Inc. by one year, to December 4, 2027, on November 11.
- Payward is pursuing a banking license and new product lines to reduce dependence on volatile trading fees ahead of a delayed public offering.
- 67% Drop in Payward’s adjusted EBITDA from Q3 2025 to Q3 2026
- $60M Extended maturity on Nakamoto loan due December 4, 2027
- 37% Rise in Kraken platform accounts to 7.1 million users year-over-year
Kraken’s parent company Payward is caught in a structural bind as both a trading platform and a lender to crypto firms. According to Cryptopolitan’s reporting, Payward’s adjusted EBITDA collapsed 67 percent year-over-year to $60 million in the third quarter of 2026, driven by a 30 percent decline in trading volume to $353 billion. The losses accelerated an existing weakness: fewer traders means fewer fees, and falling bitcoin prices erode the collateral behind loans Payward extends to other crypto firms. Payward has not yet gone public and is racing to prove it can survive a down cycle before seeking equity investors or listing shares.
Nakamoto Receives One-Year Extension as Kraken Tightens Collateral Terms
According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Nakamoto Inc., a Nashville-based bitcoin firm, negotiated amended loan terms with Payward on November 11 (Wednesday) that push back repayment on $60 million of its $165 million USDT borrowing from December 4, 2026 to December 4, 2027. The remaining $105 million USDT continues to mature on June 30, 2027.
The extension comes with a critical trade-off: Nakamoto’s bitcoin trading positions and derivatives holdings at Kraken can now count toward its loan collateral.
This is a de-risking maneuver for Payward, Nakamoto’s net value in open positions will be calculated daily and included in margin tests, allowing the borrower to meet collateral calls by liquidating those positions rather than posting fresh cash or securities. Kraken retains the right to liquidate all positions if Nakamoto defaults.
This is not Nakamoto’s first brush with difficulty. In June, Nakamoto sold approximately $48 million in bitcoin and related holdings to cut debt, the same month it originally drew the $165 million loan from Kraken. The extension signals that even bitcoin companies leveraged to the upside need breathing room when prices decline.
Lending Collateral Deteriorates as Payward Shifts Risk to Borrowers
The Nakamoto restructure reveals how crypto lending terms move in bear markets. By allowing a borrower to count open derivative positions as collateral, Payward is accepting mark-to-market risk in real time rather than holding static pledged assets. If Nakamoto holds long bitcoin positions and the price falls, the collateral value shrinks, triggering margin calls.
If Nakamoto holds hedges, such as put options, those can absorb losses, but only within daily-reset limits.
The filing makes clear that Kraken controls the valuation of all positions daily and treats negative values as zero, meaning Nakamoto cannot net losses against gains without Kraken’s consent. This structure protects Payward from a borrower walking away with a margin surplus, but it also means Payward’s actual loss severity depends on how quickly it can force liquidation after a default. In November 2025, Kraken also expanded its lending and derivatives infrastructure, suggesting the platform intended to scale this exact business, accepting leverage, managing collateral volatility, and pricing the risk of cascade failures.
Payward Seeks Banking License and New Fee Sources to Escape Trading Volatility
Payward’s Q3 revenue pressure is forcing the parent company to move fast on diversification. In October, Payward agreed to acquire Saldo Bank, a Lithuania-licensed lender, to obtain a European banking charter and enter deposit-taking and payments products outside pure crypto trading.
The company is also planning to launch tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and perpetual futures if U.S. regulators permit them, as well as its own native token. In September, Nasdaq Ventures committed to a $100 million investment in Payward at a valuation of $21 billion.
However, Bloomberg reported that Payward’s planned initial public offering is now expected to slip into 2027 or later, suggesting the company wants to stabilize profitability and prove new revenue streams before facing public market scrutiny on margins and growth.
The CCS read. We see a regulated exchange racing to capture non-trading revenue before its IPO, but the Nakamoto extension shows the core lending business is under stress. A borrower needing a one-year reprieve signals Payward’s loan book is underwater or close to it. Banking and tokenized products will help, but they take years to scale. The real question is whether Payward can avoid becoming a distressed seller of Nakamoto’s positions before December 2027.
Watch for Nakamoto’s next material event disclosure: any drawdown on the extended $60 million tranche or any additional collateral call from Kraken before the December 2027 maturity will signal whether the restructure is holding or if Payward is bracing for forced liquidation. Payward’s next quarterly results, due in early 2027, will also reveal whether platform trading volume has stabilized or continued to decline.