Michael Terpin on whether 2026 could be the next Bitcoin winter

0:00I'm Ashen Addison from the Crypto Coin Show and today on Blockchain Interviews, we're joined by Michael Turpin, early Bitcoin investor and author of The Bitcoin Super Cycle. Here to discuss where Bitcoin sits in the four-year cycle, why he believes 2026 could be a defining bare market or bottom for Bitcoin and how macro and politics shape the next phase for Bitcoin. Michael,

0:24welcome to the show and thanks for taking the time.

Glad to be here. Yeah, excited to dive into this. Everyone wants to know where Bitcoin is going. No one knows for sure. But being in Bitcoin for so long and studying the four-year cycle, which according to you still intact, that's been more of a controversial take as of recently, maybe institution

0:46institutional adoption has changed that. Excited to hear your insights on that and your book that you wrote in 24 called Bitcoin Super Cycle. I do have a copy of it right here. It is awesome book. I know you can pick it up. I can leave a link to that in the show notes as well. I would love to start out by first of all just hearing a high level on why you wrote Bitcoin super cycle and

1:09why you know do you think that we are in a super cycle right now.

Sure. So really three components of why I wrote the book. Number one, I wrote it for intelligent investors and other assets who never considered Bitcoin because, you know, they were they were scared away by their brokers, by their friends. They never even read the white paper and yet they had no

1:33problem throwing 25 or 50 grand to some yolo startup

that had probably a zero to 2% chance of ever making it. And you know and I think that you know Trafi has done you know not that they're a charitable organization by any the big the big banks. I mean they told everyone stay away. It's crazy. It's a scam. When it was a hundred to $1,000 even $10,000

1:58and now that it's $100,000 they're like hey put one to five% of your net worth into it because it's going to outperform and the risk is low now that we have ETFs now that we're selling it and taking a commission. And you know fees but you know I was saying like don't look at what they say look at what they do the big banks were you know buying crypto pretty early you

2:22knowly Jamie Diamond in 2015 I believe it was said if anybody was stupid enough at JP Morgan to buy Bitcoin I would fire them on the spot price of Bitcoin went down and then JP Morgan ended up buying Bitcoin. So, that's just the way that, you know, short sellers and every other kind of part of Wall Street works. They, you know, move you over

2:45into one area and then do the opposite. And so, you know, I wrote it to really explain why the first fifth of the book is why Bitcoin has been the best investment of any asset class over the last, you know, 15 years or so, and why I believe it's going to continue even though it won't be, you know, millionx returns from the bottom. It was going to continue to beat gold,

3:07silver, you know, stock market, real estate over the next 20 years. And you know, you know, we're I mean, historically now we did something like, you know, 60% per year gains if you go back a decade or more. You know, maybe that diminishes to 20% a year, but that's still pretty good. that's that's you know you'll have certain years that

3:29the S&P and gold you know beats that number but I don't think compounded over time that's going to be the case and I would say that it's no longer an if but a when in terms of hitting million-dollar Bitcoin and so I then spend the bulk of the book explaining my four seasons of Bitcoin thesis which I came up with in 2015. I've been in Bitcoin since 2012 went in heavy in

3:54early 2013 and you know really in 2015 when I sort of you know watched the you know how the cycle behaviors had worked Satoshi in the white paper said as long as the amount of new Bitcoin bought exceeds the amount of new Bitcoin mined the price has to go up every four years. It's supply and demand.

And sure enough the first havinging was $12. The second havinging was 670. The

4:19third having was 8,700 and the fourth having was 63,900. So it's gone up pretty dramatically every four years. However, in between the having dates is where all the volatility happened. And my thesis is that within each four-year cycle, there are four well-defined quadrants that I call the four seasons. And their basis is fear and greed as opposed to

4:46supply and demand. And is sparing greed around the supply and demand. So, Bitcoin spring happens the day of the having. It's when the seed of the new cycle is planted. And it basically you would think because in the in one day the miners go from being slightly profitable to being massively unprofitable. If you're making 10% profit in one day, your cost stay the

5:09same and your amount of new Bitcoin goes that you're receiving goes gets cut in half. So you go from 10% profit to 40% loss. You would think that the price would go down during that season, but it actually stays flat four times over now. And the reason it stays flat is because for everybody, every minor that's selling a Bitcoin or anybody else

5:31that's selling a Bitcoin, there's someone else that studied the cycles and said, "Oh, we're now in another cycle. Price is going to go up between now and the next cycle. I'm going to buy in the dip." And spring is a good time to buy in the dip. But people typically are not going to, and there's some rationale behind this, buy in heavy until Bitcoin summer hits. Bitcoin summer,

5:53which is my concept, is the first day that you have a new all-time high for that cycle. So, the day that you pass even by a penny, the all-time high of the prior cycle is when you start Bitcoin summer, which and usually it starts out with a nice parabolic boost the first few weeks. That's happened every time and it certainly happened this last time when

6:18we passed the prior all time. I have 73,850 from the you know the prior cycle which happened only a month before the having and as soon as we passed that it was 100,000 and so Bitcoin fall happens when the bubble pops and Bitcoin spring you can tell on the calendar. Bitcoin summer. You can tell with a calculator. If you can accurately judge the start of

6:47Bitcoin fall and the end of Bitcoin fall, you can make massive amounts of money because where the bubble fake out is very difficult to determine, much more difficult than judging the bottom. And if you miss the top, you know, you could all of a sudden be down quite a bit just a few weeks later. Although there's always been so far a couple of retests. that fail. But that means that

7:12if you miss the exact top, you might get another chance to

in the first 90 days or so and then after that it typically is down down until you reach capitulation. This 2024 to 2028 cycle is the first one where Bitcoin summer which started on election day of 2024 and ended on October early October when it hit 126. Mhm.

You know, that high didn't last long

7:39because on 1010 we ended up having the Trump tweet that caused a bit of a black swan cascading effect with then you know Binance doing some heavy selling deleveraging market makers potentially some trady you know kind of shenanigans around that time as well. and we went straight down you know to 80k particularly the week after the death cross when the moving averages

8:07You know sort of it's a technical term but it's basically when the 50-day moving average moves below the 200 and you know that ended up being you know when we went all the way straight down to 80 in a week from about 95k and so at that point we were down enough that like in my opinion there was no coming back until we hit the bottom. There's

8:30still hopeium. There's there is I remember when you know there was a consensus in May of 2018. There was still to the moon attitudes but we were in a bare market and we just kept on going lower and lower and lower until that market capitulated in December and a much lower number. And so, you know, retail typically has a tendency to panic buy high at the top of

8:59the cycle because they think they're going to miss the move to a million and panic sell low when they're like, "Oh, I was stupid. I should never bought Bitcoin." And that's the first cycle behavior.

This time there's been a lot of talk about retail not being involved at all because they use statistics on who's watching the YouTube channels, who's

9:17looking up Bitcoin on Google. It's a little different this time. Now, they're not looking up Bitcoin on Google. They're looking it up in their Charles Schwab account because this cycle's newbies are the ETF buyers. 129 billion dollars worth, but they still act the same way as first cycle investors. They get really nervous when the price goes

9:38down and they're losing money and they immediately jump to a stop-loss. And so, I believe that's going to happen again. The average price of the ETF buyer, I think right now is around 85. So, when it goes below that, you're going to have some more selling and that's going to like add to more negative sentiment.

I don't know if we're going to go all

9:57the way down to the 200E moving average, which has been, you know, every single time that's where the bottom hit. Last time it was actually considered below the 200E moving average. Meaning that you basically wipe out the gains of the entire prior four year. Because we did not go all the way up to the 3x that I anticipated.

I don't think we're going to go all the

10:22way down. We've had a history of diminishing

returns and diminishing losses. I mean, first having we went up 100x and then down 85%. Second having we went up 30x and then down 83%. Third having we went up 10x should have gone up 10x we ended up going up 8x because of bad macro Biden's war on crypto you know a rapid rise of interest rates went up 8x we ended up

10:47like hitting 9x after the bottom and top where we had the delayed FOMO around the ETFs when they passed and went into and went into you know went into action about a month before the having and But that just simply reset the bar of where Bitcoin summary would be. So instead of 68,000, it became 73. That's now the new bar for an all-time

11:13high. Number of pundits said, "Oh, the cycles are broken because we had a new all-time high before the having." You can't have a new all-time high for this cycle prior to the having. That's last cycle. And so that simply meant that you now have a new bar to pass this cycle to go into Bitcoin summer. And you know so this time you know if you're looking

11:34at the diminishing returns it should have been with neutral macro macro about 3x the having price which would put us around 190ish

dropped to maybe you know 2/3 of that down to 60 because we did not go up to 3x. We only went up to about 2x. You know we're not going to go down you know 2/3. We're not going to go down to 40k. And that's just simply, you know, we

12:02ended up having a muted high 60k in October is still about where the 200 week moving average is. I do not believe that 80k was the was the low. It would have just broken too many other trends. I mean,

with Bitcoin fall almost always taking about a year, it would for it to be over with in a couple of weeks. And so, I believe that we're

12:31going to, you know, continue to I think we've got some bull market movement. I mean, everybody was all excited that we went from like, you know, we started the year up 8% and guess what? It's now it's now like retreating. has didn't even get to the there's just too much resistance of people. Oh, thank god it's at 97K. I'm going to sell some. Oh, thank god it's at 100K.

12:53So, we have resistance now. 100K and 105K and 108K and 110K. I mean, we've got quite a bit of resistance to overcome in a short period of time to say that, oh, we're just, you know, 80K was a blip and we're continuing the bull market. That's just not happening. You know, if we do end up recovering early, I believe it's going to be at a much lower

13:16low than than we had in 80. I mean, it could be as muted as as as capitulating around 72 to 75.

the most likely scenario is around 60K. And again in midsummer to early fall and at that point it would be close enough to by the way the concept of fourear cycle number of people said four year cycle is broken because we had a down year in calendar year 2025. It's never

13:46been a fouryear cycle. It's a 210,000 block cycle and the average has actually been 46 months and I think going forward it's going to probably, you know, it's going to probably be around 47 then. So we're looking right now at, you know, the first having was in December of 2012 because there was a mining disruption with Chinese miners being just swept away in 2016.

14:10They came back in other areas and then they had another disruption this past year. But you know it basically went adjustments in the difficulty and it went all the way back to July. So we went should have been December if it was a pure four-year cycle from or early January from the January third genesis block but ended up being November late November. That was only

14:36about 6 weeks short of and then we ended up going to like mid July 2016 and then we ended up going to May of 2020 which is you know 46 months and then this last time was 47 months it was mid April and we're projecting somewhere around late March for this next one still stay in the presidential calendar year which I believe Satoshi intended for 28 for 32 for 36 and maybe you

15:09move back into December of the year prior by 2040 at which point we're 99% out of Bitcoin.

Yeah, very fascinating, Michael. So with because you know a lot of people they just look at sort of an arbitrary calendar year date and they say well you know Bitcoin it was lower for 2025 but actually the whole summer passed through in that time and went to all-time high and then you

15:37know they sort of look at the date of the inauguration one year later they're like oh well it's down from that exact date but you missed the whole summer there.

Yeah. And again if you if you judge the years as 46-month average then it's following exactly and to me the other thing is that every single you know having low to high so far has been

16:00exactly 35 months

from high and repeated again this time in fact it's been within days of 164 days. It's been incredibly consistent. I thought there was a good chance that we were going to extend that just like we extended we had the longest ever you know Bitcoin spring seven months the first one was four months I didn't think there was anything you know sort of

16:23rooted in stone that the Bitcoin summer had to be 9 to 11 months and it had to be exactly 35 months after the low but guess what it repeated again and you know and I think one thing that kept it from having you know I mean you need in at the top of we kept on bumping into about 120k.

That was the same thing that we had in inauguration day 119 and we just weren't

16:49able to move ahead of that we hit it in July, we hit in August, we hit it in September. We obviously at 126 in early October I mean if we had two more runs we could have probably gotten up around 150 to 180 but we didn't. And you know, one of the things I talk about in the terms of being able to predict the first day of Bitcoin fall is

17:11when are the whales selling? And you can see this on chain. The first major whale sale that was identified was 80,000 Bitcoin in July. And it was interesting because I have a OG friend who said, "Oh yeah, you know, I'm pretty sure that was not a sale. That was just a movement for OPSAC. I know somebody who knows the guy. He didn't sell." And of course, it turns out later that

17:35Galaxy said a few weeks later in their earnings, "Oh yeah, we brokered that sale." It was a sale and Michael Sailor bought like most of it. And so once the first whale sells and the others see it on chain, you're like, "Oh, something's going on. We must be getting close to a high. What do they know that I don't know?" And you end up having I mean, it's never majority of

17:55the whales. I mean, at most it's maybe 15 20% of their holdings. And it's not like they're giving up on Bitcoin. They're just doing the math and they're following what I preach in the book, which is, you know, buy low, sell high. If you bought a thousand Bitcoin at the first having in November 2012 and you held on to it through thick and thin and you still held it today, it's your

18:1812,000 investment is worth about 94,000. Pretty good return. Beats almost any other pretty much beats every other asset class handling. However, if you sold within 20% of the top, you're never going to guess the exact day. I mean I and some other people have exa guessed exact day but we've also missed the exact day in different cycles but you sold 20% of near the top

18:44100 you know you your 100x you sold a dollar cost average down around a thousand and then you ended up you know not hitting not buying back at the very low of 171 in 2015 but you dollar cost average back at 250 all of a sudden now you've turned you know your $12,000 into a million and then you bought Bitcoin at 250. Now you have 4,000 Bitcoin. And you could have done that a

19:10couple cycles in then have your 1,000 you know, Bitcoin investment for $12,000, not worth 94 million, but worth, you know, five and a half billion. And so that's how compounding works. And I don't think we're going to be averaging you know 4x over the next few cycles. But if you're going two to 3x, you know, buying near the bottom and selling near

19:36the top you know because again we are going to get get into the third part of the book which is the super cycle.

Not happen yet but it will. And the reason it will is because the S-curve of adoption happens in every new technology that gets adopted. And so Bitcoin adoption has been following pretty closely the adoption of the internet. You know, where was the internet in

20:021994? Nobody used it. Where where is it today? You know, it's not quite to 100% where mobile phones are, but you know, because some of those don't have internet capability, but it's getting there and it will get there. But if you figure that we're roughly, you know, 20 years behind, maybe a little bit more, 25 years behind the internet, you know,

20:26in 20 25 years, we'll certainly be over 50% of

some access to Bitcoin. The global south will actually have it on a wallet instead of they're not begging for JP Morgan accounts, you know, they want to go and flee from their you know, their their hyperinflating currency. It's happening in

Argentina and Venezuela. Probably even more so now that the regime collapsed.

20:51It's certainly happening in Iran. In fact, that was one, you know, alleged reason why there was a pump at the start of this week was, you know, people converting their cash into Bitcoin and buying it on, you know, black markets or wherever they could buy it or ends. And you know there's I'd say that and I mentioned in the book that you know in the near future

21:15everybody in the global south will have you know two two two quote the digital banking accounts. They'll have their checking account in tether and they'll have their savings account in Bitcoin. And that's that's going to be where a lot of the new demand comes. that's where you're going to get to like 10 20 30 40% of the world having some access to Bitcoin. Now in the

21:40global north many of them are going to simply have access by buying ETF or buying into a digital asset treasury company like Micro Strategy. We're right now still around 4%. About 7% for crypto because believe it or not number of people who have Dogecoin and memecoins and no Bitcoin at all. But I only care about, you know, Bitcoin in terms of saying demand

22:03for Bitcoin.

And, if you go from 4% to even 10%, that's two and a halfx.

Where's that Bitcoin going to come from?

You can't mine anymore. You're you're restricted to 450 a day and there's already far more demand. So, if all of a sudden you double, triple, quadruple the demand, where's that Bitcoin going to come from?

I like to say you're not going to find

22:25any Bitcoin on Mars. You know, it's not like gold where you can find new supply. You know exactly what the supply is. It's 450 a day no matter how strong your miners are. And then it's gonna be two in 2028 and then it's going to be 112 and a half and then it's going to be 62 and a quarter. So by the time you get to 2040, I mean, you're going to be

22:45talking like 30 and then 15 a day. With supply supply diminishing every four years by half new supply and demand increasing, you have to have a supply shock at some point and that supply shock is going to happen during the bull market because there all sorts of people you know institutions can buy low by just buying from the panic

23:12sellers and that seems to happen every single you know four years because the newbies panic when the price goes down and the old hands are like, "Yeah, seen it before. I'm waiting for it to go to this level where I'll buy." And so, you know, I think that, you know, we certainly had a shock this time. There were certain days when the price went up because there was just

23:32very little that you could find on the exchange. But there are plenty of whales that were willing to sell OTC

and most of them buy back. So, that will still be a steady pool. But again, the number of whales and the number of bitcoin from those whales will not increase it. It'll slightly decrease as the you know as the desire for bitcoin from both the global south and

23:57the global north mainly through institutions in the global north increases by double triple quadruple. I mean if we get to 20% of the world having some bitcoin we're 5x you know sort of what we have today. And so, you know, if not in 2029, then in 2023, you're gonna, you know, a God candle where all of a sudden one day it doesn't go up 5%. It goes up 30%. Because, you

24:21know, I mean, look at what silver is doing right now, right? I mean, you had days when, you know, it all of a sudden went from bottom to top up like, you know, 10%. Which is crazy.

Yeah.

And you know, and stocks when they do able to put you know, market breakers, they're able to stop trading. They can't do that with Bitcoin. M yeah it's a beautiful thing

24:42and I think a lot of people are listening to this and you know they're like I don't have enough Bitcoin u but when is the best time to you know get it at the good price and they have to defy their emotions in when it's going down that they have to do the opposite you know they don't when when there's fear in the markets is when you need to buy and you mentioned at the

25:01beginning about sort of the beginning of Bitcoin fall and the end of Bitcoin fall with where we're at right now in the beginning of 2026 6. How would you implement a strategy to accumulate more Bitcoin if you feel like you didn't have enough?

Sure. So, we're in the middle of Bitcoin fall. It all depends whether you want to be a day trader and look at the

25:22charts every day or you want to set and forget it. If you want to set it and forget it. You basically just, you know, look for the 200week moving average or look for a price point that you think is affordable to you. I mean, the most important thing is to have at least one Bitcoin. And you know there's less than a million people roughly about a million

25:39people kind of goes between 900,000 and like one 1.0 something. You know there's eight billion people in the world and that number of a million people having one Bitcoin is not going to go up very much

because again there's only 5% of the global supply left. So you have to buy it from other people who are willing to sell it. For most people it's a lot

25:59easier to buy at the bottom than it is at the top. If you're able to go and afford $97,000 today or $94,000, buy it. You know, you're gonna if you want to just buy it and hold it, it'll be worth way more in five years, 10 years. It depends what your time horizon is. You know, if you're basically saying, "Hey, you know, I've only got maybe, you know, $10,000 to spare on,

26:23you know, a an investment that's not all in on Bitcoin." you know then you might say okay you know look to buy at the bottom you know which maybe is between 60 and 75 and maybe start dollar cost averaging when it goes below 80 again and you know all of a sudden you'll have you know $10,000 10 to 15% of a bitcoin and then

26:51depending on your time horizon right I mean maybe you should go because again four years from now that low is going to be lower. But again, if you're able to go and sell some of it when we hit the next high, let's say that you're buying at 75K and let's say the next high is at, you know, I think the next high will probably be 250 300ish. So if you buy around 75, you

27:18sell it even 225, it's three times your money. So you could go in and then take that you know that $10,000 you turn into and then you wait until the bottom hits and maybe the bottom that time goes at 150. Now all of a sudden you know you take that plus some new money you've saved and you know maybe that time you're able to buy half a Bitcoin and then you get a full Bitcoin you know

27:42later on. But again because these numbers are all going higher the highs and the lows because as I as I as long as the new demand's there it's going to be four years and higher having market be four years. If you can buy a Bitcoin right now do it

or at least in Bitcoin fall or maybe say buy a quarter one now and then maybe a quarter one when the price is a little

28:04bit lower and then you know try to see if you can time the bottom. 100,000 I'd say you're you're you're you're going to be pretty good if you have a longer time horizon.

Yeah, I think

and you'll be a whole coiner. There's not that many of them in the world.

Yeah, exactly. I think the one Bitcoin threshold is a really great goal for most people that probably don't have a

28:28lot in investments. Even the people that appear to be wealthy seem to be living, you know, spending it on expend expenditures that aren't really making the money.

And I was going to say that whole coiner investment in terms of US dollars,

if you had gotten in 2013 you know, buying $90,000 worth of Bitcoin would have gotten you about

28:511,500 Bitcoin.

Wow. Yeah.

You know, depending depending when the year you ended up buying it, which today would be incredibly substantial.

Definitely

and would bas Yeah. It would basically make you a billionaire when the price goes up to a million.

Definitely. It's not it's not if, it's when. And you know, you've mentioned a couple times about the

29:12strategy of what comparing holding from the early cycles to selling within 20% of the top and the bottom. And you know, because no one's going to pick the exact day every time. You may have gotten it right sometimes, but I know that you also have a Bitcoin fund as well. Is this the strategy that you're going to be implementing in the fund in selling it in that 20% mark?

29:40

Yes.

Yes, that's part of the strategy. The other part is that I do have a team of algo program. We do, you know, trade not really day trading because that really adds up fees a lot. But we sort of we look to make a trade and we also do options and derivatives on the futures. You know we make trades when we think we can

30:02make you know say between move. So if we end up getting one of those right a month net you know that's going to be you know three to 5% per month while we're waiting for capitulation. And so the big thing is just position sizing, making sure that we're an appropriate amount of Bitcoin. We want to be as close to all cash as possible at the bottom and we're going

30:25to be as close to all Bitcoin at the top. And so that's really the, you know, kind of the management that we're looking to do that, you know, the goal is obviously to, you know, to beat the price of Bitcoin just sitting in the wallet. And most crypto hedge funds to date have not done that. you look at the 2024 best known crypto hedge funds, I won't name them, but you can look them

30:49up, did 52% and 48% which, you know, blew away the top S&P hedge funds.

But Bitcoin Sydney wallet got you 120%. And if the top, you know, hedge funds underperformed the S&P by 50%, they'd be laughed off of Wall Street. And so I think that by just following our thesis and just being you know very diligent about you know making the trades at the

31:15right time you know we're never going to hit everything right but you know we should outperform Bitcoin by margin over you know a 10-year period let's say. Mhm. Yeah. It's it's funny to see how all these genius hedge funds couldn't outperform just holding. Or maybe they're just over overtrading too much. You know, you just got to the cycles

31:38are four years and you really only need like two windows to buy and to sell and forget the other, you know, three and three/4ers of a year. I mean really that is a is a way if you want to just set it and forget it, you know, because otherwise you have to really be really mastering your position size again because you can't sell at the top unless you're pretty

32:04close to all in Bitcoin. You can't buy at the bottom unless you're, you know, pretty much all in cash.

Yeah, that's that's always the pain of people that are all in and then there's a dip and they're like, "Well, I'm already all in." like how you know I don't have anywhere to buy. Yeah, they might have not bought at the optimal spot.

And again, Michael Sailor's formula

32:26is certainly an interesting one by leveraging and just saying, you know, we don't care about the dips. We're just going to le leverage and figure that it's going to, you know, go up 20% a year and we're going to borrow it like, you know, six to 10% and we'll make money on the difference. So,

I mean, he certainly done well, but again, it's a centralized stock. has

32:45issues with short sellers and everything else. And I mean, obviously, Bitcoin has short sellers, too. But again, over the long haul, if you're able to sort of you get to just buy and hold, it's is still fine, but you should be outperforming by, you know, selling at the top and buying back at the bottom. And obviously, your tax rates you know, apply, right? I mean, if you

33:07liveing, but, you know, if you're, you know, making double or triple, you know, you're you're fine paying the taxes on that. And then, you know, that's that's sort of the combination that you have to sort of discuss with your tax accountants. I live in Puerto Rico. You know, some of our LPS are in other places that have no taxes. I mean, no taxes. And so you know those they

33:35don't have to worry about the taxes and capital gains

and obviously there's other vehicles for people who are in high tax states you know funds etc etc. So, I'm not a tax accountant. You talk to your financial advisor about how to structure your investments. But, you know, just in terms of just net returns, you know, playing the volatility in Bitcoin is

34:03still you know, destined out before just buying.

Definitely. Yeah. Maybe the ultra wealthy should continue to leave California before they buy or sell their Bitcoin. It doesn't seem like a good place for those those ultra wealthies right now. And I think you know with the increased institutional adoption and you know some a lot of

34:27those ultra wealthy you know the old money they just listen to what the fund managers are saying and they have increased their percentage that they are saying you know you should allocate to bitcoin so some of that money should be coming in and you know we don't have a lot of time left Michael but we you mentioned bitcoin 1 million you know a few cycles down the road 2032

34:52or 33 what are the things that need to go right to hit that target in the coming years?

The main thing that needs to go right is simply adoption. In other words, you know buy bitcoin then then new supply comes on the market and if that's by a significant amount that's when you hit the supply shock and that's when you hit the super cycle. And so again, I

35:18think that turns that I spoke about earlier, when you went from like a 100x to 30x to 8x to 2x, if that keeps diminishing, you're never going to hit a million dollars, right? It would be very hard because that 2x would go to like, you know, maybe a 30% gain and then maybe to like, you know, barely anything. But the supply shock should mean that all of a sudden, you know, the first

35:42The first Bitcoin summer that happens, if it happens next time, you wouldn't be 2x, you'd be 3x perhaps. And I think that you're going to the diminishing returns be overpowered by the supply shock for probably at least two maybe three cycles because again you know when things you know the trend the momentum moving up rapidly they tend to keep on moving up until you

36:11know something breaks and again you got the you got the buffer you got sort of the shock breakers in the four year cycle. So that you know it's going to go up and then it'll go parabolic and it'll break and then you know it'll go to a certain support level with institutional buying. So you're not going to have another 85% low

off the off the top. But you know

36:36you could have a 3x or 4x in a Bitcoin summer off of the having price. And so that's really how you get to million dollar Bitcoin more quickly. I think that we will not get the million Bitcoin next cycle. I think we'll be somewhere between, you know, it's four years away, so I'm just giving a very broad range, but you know, probably going to be in, you know, the

36:59200 to 500 range. I say more likely 300ish if I was, you know, going to give an estimate. But I think that four years after that, we could certainly be in the, you know, 750 to one 1.2 million range. If again we continue to see demand in institutions and in global south so that we're at like you know 15 or 20% of the world having some exposure to Bitcoin by then and you

37:28know that's once you hit a million dollars that's about 11x where we are today and you know I can't think of I can't think of the stock market being at like say what would they have to be a $600,000 Dow or something like that

and you know 60,000 in the S&P. I mean, it's just those are those are less likely than, you know, than than you know, 70,000 something NASDAQ. Those are

37:53those are less likely than, you know, than Bitcoin going to a million dollars.

Definitely there. I believe there's a lot of upside still. And you know, you look at the crypto market cap and you look at the Mag 7 and it's like one company like something like Nvidia, it's like it's more than you know, the entire market cap of Bitcoin.

38:16We're still we're still pretty small relatively to the global adoption that's coming. So it's very exciting. I appreciate your insights into where Bitcoin's at right now. I think a lot of people they need to zoom out and you know they get excited about these small pumps like we're seeing in the beginning of 2026 here but look at the four-year cycle and zoom out more and

38:40look ahead to the super cycle and do their best to accumulate when there's fear when we're near the bottom. I appreciate you last time we met up giving me a copy of Bitcoin super cycle. I'll I'll leave a link to it in the show notes as well. All the best with your fund and the

Oh, and one other one one other thing that's new since since then I now

39:04have bitcoin supercycle.ai

and you go on there and it gives you because there is no audio book on Amazon. My publisher did not did not order it and have me sit in a room for like 20 hours. I had in my agreement that I had the rights to do my own AI multimedia version and so I did. So, bitcoins.ai, I think it's $49 a year, and you get

39:34access to ask me any question, and my avatar will read through the book and answer without you having to go thumb through the book. We'll be updating that as well with the new things. I'm going to be adding on what happened this year and it'll go into the that'll go into the AI as well. And it also has nine languages of my audio book read by my voice. But I

39:58didn't have to sit in a room. I just simply gave the AI my voice and you can hear me read it in Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Spanish, and of course English.

Bitcoin Supercycle.ai.

Very cool. I'll leave that in the show notes. I'm going to check that out. You know, AI is a beautiful thing and I feel like it's going to help push Bitcoin as well. Thank you so much for your

40:17insights. All the [snorts] best moving forward and would love to follow up again in the near future. Michael,

thank you.