Venezuela Could Be Shifting to the US Dollar: Is It Bad for Crypto?

• Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke drafted a full dollarization bill for Venezuela’s National Assembly with 50% to 80% odds of passage.
• Venezuela’s annual inflation currently runs near 400%, the highest globally, with the bolivar losing 78% of its value to the dollar in one year.
• Venezuelans already conduct transactions heavily in physical dollars and digital alternatives, making de facto dollarization a practical reality before formal legal adoption.

• 400% Venezuela’s current annual inflation rate versus Iran’s 68%, the next-highest among major economies
• 78% Bolivar depreciation versus the US dollar over the past twelve months
• 1.1M Current Venezuelan oil production in barrels per day, down from 3.4M before Chávez took power in 1998

Venezuela is on the verge of abandoning its national currency in favor of formal, legal dollarization. In August 2026, the National Assembly appointed Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke as a special adviser to draft legislation that would abolish the bolivar and dissolve the central bank entirely, ending the government’s capacity to print money.

Hanke estimates the probability of the bill’s passage at between 50% and 80%, making this the closest Venezuela has come to USD adoption since the country began experiencing hyperinflation in the mid-2010s.

The move represents a decisive institutional response to an economic emergency: with annual inflation near 400%, the highest rate globally, and the bolivar having lost nearly four-fifths of its value against the dollar in a single year, policymakers are now treating dollarization not as a reform proposal but as a survival measure.

Hanke’s Second Attempt Reflects Changed Conditions in Venezuela and Regional Politics

This is Hanke’s second effort to reshape Venezuela’s monetary system. In 1995 and 1996, while serving as chief economic adviser to President Rafael Caldera, he designed a currency board framework intended to stabilize the currency and restrict state spending. That proposal failed to secure majority support in the National Assembly and was abandoned.

Hanke and his current collaborator, Antonio Ecarri, founder of the centrist Lápiz party and a National Assembly member, argue that political and social conditions have shifted decisively in favor of dollarization this time.

Hanke cites survey data showing that most Venezuelans now support abandoning the bolivar. More significantly, he notes that de facto dollarization is already entrenched across Venezuelan society: citizens already receive wages in local currency but spend primarily in US dollars obtained through informal markets, while digital alternatives have become central to daily commerce.

This existing reality removes a key barrier to formal adoption, Venezuelans would not be forced into a new monetary system but rather would have their existing behavior crystallized into law.

Taming inflation is the key to restoring stability in Venezuela, and all the other progress flows from that. Stability isn’t everything, but without stability, which means stable prices, you have nothing.

Steve Hanke, economist, Johns Hopkins University

Hanke’s analysis cuts to a brutal arithmetic: at current 400% annual inflation, consumer prices rise approximately 8% per week for essential goods like eggs, beef, and rent.

Oil Production Collapse Signals Why Monetary Reform Alone Cannot Restore Stability

Dollarization addresses the symptom of hyperinflation but not the underlying cause of Venezuela’s economic crisis: the collapse of petroleum production and export revenue. Venezuela currently produces 1.1 million barrels per day, representing only 1.3% of global oil supply and just one-third of the 3.4 million barrels per day the country pumped before Hugo Chávez took power in 1998.

Even accounting for the slight recovery following Maduro’s ouster in early 2026, production remains catastrophically depressed.

Oil revenues have historically funded Venezuelan government spending and foreign currency reserves, the two pillars supporting any stable monetary system.

Without sustained oil production and hard currency inflows, even a dollarized Venezuela would face pressure on liquidity and external financing. Hanke’s proposal assumes that eliminating the central bank’s ability to print money will force fiscal discipline and attract foreign investment.

However, institutional investors evaluating this scenario must recognize that dollarization is a necessary condition for stability in Venezuela but not a sufficient one. The country would need to restore productive capacity and export earnings to sustain dollar-based monetary stability over the medium and long term.

Crypto’s Role in Hyperinflationary Economies Faces Headwinds from Official Dollarization Policies

For cryptocurrency markets and institutional investors holding exposure to blockchain-based assets in developing economies, Venezuela’s shift toward dollarization represents a strategic inflection point.

Over the past decade, crypto advocates have argued that borderless digital currencies and decentralized finance provide an escape valve for citizens in countries with hyperinflationary or unstable monetary systems.

Venezuela became a case study for this thesis: as the bolivar collapsed, Bitcoin and stablecoins denominated in US dollars became tools for wealth preservation and cross-border transactions outside government control.

Formal dollarization, by contrast, offers the same monetary stability that crypto promises, inflation control, currency preservation, access to a globally recognized unit of account, but through the traditional route of substituting the domestic currency with a foreign legal tender.

If the Hanke bill passes and Venezuela legally adopts the dollar, the institutional incentive to use cryptocurrency for monetary stability purposes diminishes sharply.

Venezuelans would have access to dollar deposits, dollar cash, and dollar-denominated financial services through legal channels, eliminating the regulatory and counterparty risks that made crypto attractive during the bolivar’s collapse.

This pattern, competing solutions to monetary instability, has played out repeatedly in emerging markets, with jurisdictions choosing between crypto adoption and traditional dollarization based on political feasibility and institutional capacity.

The institutional crypto investment thesis in hyperinflationary economies rests partly on the assumption that capital controls, central bank collapse, or outright prohibition of USD transactions would force citizens toward blockchain-based alternatives. In Venezuela’s case, a legislated shift toward dollarization would eliminate that assumption.

The policy option signals that even leftist or statist governments facing monetary emergency now view USD adoption as preferable to either maintaining a worthless domestic currency or permitting the use of unregulated digital assets.

Institutional Investors Face Divergent Outcomes Depending on Legislative Timeline

The passage and implementation timeline for Hanke’s dollarization bill will determine near-term capital flows and asset class performance in Venezuela. If the measure passes and takes effect within the next six to twelve months, we would expect a sharp shift away from crypto holdings toward dollar-denominated assets and deposits.

This would likely trigger selling pressure on cryptocurrencies among Venezuelan holders seeking immediate liquidity and regulatory certainty. Institutional funds betting on emerging-market crypto adoption in Latin America would need to reassess Venezuela’s weighting and exposure.

Conversely, if the bill stalls in the National Assembly or faces implementation delays, the current hybrid economy, where dollars, digital assets, and bolivares coexist, would persist. In that scenario, crypto would retain its function as a medium of exchange and store of value for portions of the Venezuelan population unable or unwilling to access formal banking infrastructure.

The probability Hanke assigned to passage (50% to 80%) leaves material room for legislative failure or dilution, which would extend the environment favoring crypto alternatives.

Institutional investors should monitor the Venezuelan National Assembly’s legislative calendar over the next three to four months for a floor vote on the dollarization bill. If approved, the implementation date and technical details, particularly whether the central bank liquidation will occur immediately or over a transition period, will determine whether crypto holdings face rapid repricing or gradual substitution. The open question remains whether other hyperinflationary jurisdictions facing similar pressures will view Venezuela’s formal dollarization as a policy model or as

Original reporting: beincrypto.com