Bitcoin Tests Its 200-Day as Ether Falls Under $2,100
The midterm rally lasted about a day.
Election night, Bitcoin ripped from $75.6K to $81.1K on news that Democrats had taken both chambers. Thursday made a lot more sense: about $2.5 trillion wiped off US stocks, and Bitcoin handed the whole move back. Then the $75.6K floor gave way, and Bitcoin spent the weekend testing its 200-day near $73.2K. Today October CPI came in hot at +0.4% on the month, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’ll back at least a 25 bp rate hike at the Dec 8-9 meeting, with 50 bp on the table if inflation stays hot. Bitcoin dipped to about $72.7K, and it’s trading near $73.2K as I write.
Below: what broke the rally, what the charts say now that $75.6K is gone and Ether has lost $2,100, and two conversations: Cake Wallet’s Vik Sharma on exchange privacy and Wallet V’s Adam Cai on AI agents that trade without your keys.
This week in 30 seconds:
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📉 A tech crash takes Bitcoin from $81K to its 200-day, and a hot CPI print plus a Fed rate-hike signal test it today
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📈 BTC and ETH charts: BTC tests the 200-day, ETH drops under $2,100 and goes oversold
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🎙️ Vik Sharma (Cake Wallet): your exchange knows more about your Bitcoin than you think
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🎙️ Adam Cai (Wallet V): an AI agent can trade for you without your keys
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🏛️ Coinbase wins full OCC approval for its national trust bank charter
📉 LAST WEEK: THE RALLY LASTED A DAY
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Last Thursday: Roughly $2.5 trillion was wiped off US stocks. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4%, a record $2.3 trillion loss for the index, and the S&P 500 had its worst day since the April 2025 tariff crash. Chip stocks fell 12%, their worst day since March 2020, on fears a Democratic Congress slows the AI buildout.
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Why it matters: Right now crypto trades like a tech stock. When AI and chip names get sold, Bitcoin gets sold with them.
Wintermute flagged $73K and $68K as the next support levels below, while staying constructive on the medium term.
📈 THE CHARTS
Scorecard from #140: I said a daily close above the 50-day near $82K would flip Bitcoin bullish. It tagged $81.1K and never closed there. ❌ I also said that if $78K went, the $75.6K low was back in play. That’s exactly where it went, and then some. ✅ On ETH, my relief-bounce call didn’t hold. It lost $2,350 and $2,290 and is now near $2,025. ❌
Bitcoin (daily)
They call it the Bitcoin BART: a sharp bump from $76K to $81K, a little flat hair at the top, then straight back down. That’s the whole midterm move.
Then the floor broke. Bitcoin lost $75.6K on Friday after the jobs report, dipped to $73,510 on Sunday and bounced off the 200-day near $73.2K. Today October CPI came in hot (+0.4% on the month) and Fed Governor Waller said he’d back at least a 25 bp hike on Dec 8-9, with 50 bp on the table if inflation stays hot. Bitcoin pushed to about $72.7K, a new low for this move and briefly under the 200-day. It’s trading near $73.2K as I write, right on that line.
The trend still says caution. Bitcoin is under its 20-day at about $78.0K and its 50-day at $81.4K. EngineeringRobo is bearish on the 1D, 3H, 45M, 15M and multi-timeframe, and bullish only on the weekly. RSI is 33.3, and Smart Money is at BALANCE, so the big money still hasn’t picked a side.
My bias: Bearish short term, and now testing the 200-day instead of just sitting on it. This is the line that matters.
What I’m watching: A daily close under the 200-day near $73.2K opens $68K, the next support Wintermute flagged. To get back to neutral, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $75.6K and then the 20-day near $78K.
Support: $72.7K (today’s low) / $70K / $68K | Resistance: $73.2K (200-day) / $75.6K / $78.0K (20-day) / $81.4K (50-day)
Ethereum (daily)
ETH ran to $2,447 last Wednesday and gave it all back. Then it lost the 200-day near $2,154, the line that held the last bounce, and today it fell about 5% to a low near $2,005, under Sunday’s $2,083. It’s trading near $2,025 as I write, under the 20-day at $2,274 and the 50-day at $2,458. EngineeringRobo reads bearish on every timeframe except the weekly, which is NEUTRAL, and Smart Money is OUT. RSI is 29.3, oversold.
My bias: Bearish while it’s under the 200-day, but stretched. RSI near 29 is where bounces tend to start.
What I’m watching: $2,000 is being tested right now, then the $1,800 shelf. A daily close back above $2,154 turns this into a flush, and a reclaim of the 20-day near $2,274 puts the bounce back on.
Support: $2,005 / $2,000 / $1,802 | Resistance: $2,154 (200-day) / $2,274 (20-day) / $2,419
Signals powered by EngineeringRobo AI
Want the alts? CCS Insider Pro #2 lands tomorrow morning with charts, AI readouts and key levels on the altcoins I’m watching, plus a scorecard on last week’s calls.
Pro #1’s ZEC breakdown is free to read: See the free ZEC sample →
🎙️ INTERVIEWS OF THE WEEK
Your exchange knows more about your Bitcoin than you think
Vik Sharma, Founder and CEO of Cake Wallet
Watch the interview
“It’s not where your Bitcoin lives, it’s where your key lives.”
Vik’s point is that buying Bitcoin on an exchange ties your identity to your coins for good, and the public ledger lets anyone follow them from there.
3 things I took from it:
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Your KYC data is the weak point. “Even if your Bitcoin doesn’t get hacked, the KYC data can get hacked and leak, and that’s very scary.” After the Binance breach, that one lands. Watch from 1:37 →
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Silent payments fix address reuse. One reusable code, a new private address every time someone pays you. Watch from 16:56 →
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Cake chose principles over growth. “I’d rather have less users and stick to our principles.” Watch from 13:40 →
My take: I haven’t used silent payments myself, though I’m careful not to reuse addresses. What I want people to know is that there are more private options for Bitcoin and other coins that don’t cost extra.
Watch on CCS → · Read the interview → · YouTube →
An AI agent can trade for you without ever holding your keys
Adam Cai, Founder and Group CEO of Virgo Group (Wallet V)
Watch the interview
“The private key is still owned by the user.”
Adam’s point is that AI trading agents are assistants, not money machines.
3 things I took from it:
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The agent can trade, but it can’t move your money. Users set a hard risk limit, and every AI decision shows why it bought or sold, so a loss can be traced to a reason. Watch from 22:35 →
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AI is a buddy, not a millionaire machine. Adam puts AI’s share of Wallet V’s trading volume at about 5% and says an agent is no guarantee of winning. Watch from 8:42 →
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Phase 3 pays you to find whales. Up to 14,000 USDC plus V points for identifying a top trader’s wallet and getting them onto Wallet V. Adam says season one ends around Dec 3 and could bring the first airdrop. Watch from 18:26 →
My take: AI agent trading is very early, and a lot of people are trading $100 or a couple hundred dollars with it. That’s the opportunity: experiment early, and get paid in USDC, not just points, for bringing yourself and whales into agentic trading. Worth looking into.
Watch on CCS → · Read the interview → · YouTube →
Disclosure: This interview is part of a paid media package with Virgo Group, the team behind Wallet V. Trading perps and using AI agents carries risk. Not financial advice.
Missed last Wednesday’s issue? IPX on paying fans from box office revenue and Cap on lending to a Cole Sprouse film are both on the CCS Interview Hub →
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🔥 WEEKLY SIGNAL RECAP
The rest of the news, one line each.
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Coinbase received full OCC approval for its national trust bank charter. CCS →
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NYSE named Avalanche as the sole settlement layer for its 24/7 tokenized stock venue. CCS →
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Coincheck froze withdrawals and the Chainalysis breach leaves the cause unclear. CCS →
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India’s CERT-In warned of an AI-run group draining exchanges and banks through payment APIs. CCS →
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Morgan Stanley joined 20 banks tokenizing US stocks and Treasuries in a DTCC pilot. CCS →
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Injective’s blockchain halted again, and Upbit and Bithumb froze INJ transfers. CCS →
✍️ ASHTON’S TAKE
November was supposed to be different
October was Bitcoin’s worst October since 2014, down 7.3%, and a lot of us were hoping November would be different. So far it isn’t. Bitcoin opened the month near $77K, it’s down about 5% as I write, and it’s sitting right on its 200-day.
Part of it is the Fed. It raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, held in October, and now Governor Waller says he’ll back at least another 25 basis points in December, with 50 on the table if inflation stays hot. That’s roughly 85% priced in already, so what the Fed signals after the move may matter more than the move itself. A hike isn’t what crypto wants, though. Higher rates tighten liquidity, and that’s been a headwind for Bitcoin.
That’s the trade-off with institutional adoption. The more Bitcoin sits inside ETFs and the same portfolios as Nvidia, the more it moves with the stock market and with the Fed. It’s harder to call it a hedge when it trades like a risk asset.
The second half of the year has still been fairly promising, up double digits over the last three months, and I still think we get a rally before the end of the year.
One thing keeps coming up in my recent interviews: the money that piled into AI starts rotating back into crypto assets. If that happens while the AI trade is cracking, it could be what breaks Bitcoin’s link to the Nasdaq.
Until then, the 200-day near $73.2K is the line.
Ashton Addison
CEO, Crypto Coin Show & BlockWest
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This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or other professional advice. Investments in cryptocurrencies involve significant risk including loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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