U.S.-EU Relations

President Donald Trump said on Friday there was only about a 50‑50 chance, or possibly less, that the United States would reach a trade agreement with the European Union, noting that Brussels was eager to “make a deal very badly.”

On Friday, Donald Trump stated that chances of the U.S. finalizing a trade pact with the European Union hovered around fifty‑fifty or even lower, while observing that officials in Brussels were strongly motivated to secure an agreement.

He delivered his comment departing the White House on his way to Scotland, where he’ll spend several days golfing and meeting with international dignitaries. “We’re working very diligently with Europe, the EU,” he told Reuters before boarding Marine One.

Pressed again on the odds of a successful deal, he said, “That’s the big one right now … I think the EU has a pretty good chance of making a deal right now.”

Trump tells EU it must “Buy Down” 30% tariff to seal trade agreement

Only a day earlier, the European Commission declared that a compromise with Washington seemed attainable. Even so, EU capitals’ have planned to hit retaliatory duties on €93 billion ($109 billion) of American imports if negotiations collapse.

The EU’s executive branch, representing 27 member states, has consistently stated its chief goal is to prevent the imposition of the 30% levies that the President has signaled could take effect on August 1. For any deal to materialize, he indicated the EU must “buy down” that levy, although he did not explain how.

Some EU officials propose basing a potential arrangement on the outline of the U.S.‑Japan accord, in which incoming European exports would face a uniform 15% rate upon entry into the U.S.

Nevertheless, the administration warned these accounts are still largely speculative, with trade adviser Peter Navarro advising Bloomberg News that the EU’s announcement should be taken with “a grain of salt.”

The EU hasn’t said what it will give in return yet. According to a diplomatic source, the bloc has no plans for the type of investment commitments Japan provided in its U.S. agreement.

Trump looks forward to meetings with Starmer and Swinney

On Monday, Trump will visit his Aberdeen golf course to open a new 18-hole course named after his mother.

While leaving the capital, he said he looked forward to meeting Labour leader Keir Starmer and Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney. He noted that both have previously expressed support for U.S. Democrats. Swinney had openly endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 campaign.

According to British and American officials, the visit provides both leaders a chance strengthen their good relations. Major discussion points will involve seeking a resolution to Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and enhancing defense and security cooperation.

Since assuming leadership last year, Starmer has focused on keeping close ties with the U.S.

In May, he negotiated the United Kingdom’s inaugural U.S. tariff‑cut deal, which maintained existing quotas and duty bands for British cars, eliminated levies on aerospace products, and left steel tariffs in place.

Starmer plans to push for lower steel tariffs, but officials from both countries admit a deal probably won’t happen on this visit.

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